Bitcoin & Stocks Reinforce Outlook for Sharp Sell-offs into Nov 17 – 21st!
11-05-25 – “Throughout 2025 (even in late-2024), INSIIDE Track & the Weekly Re-Lay have been addressing a perceived similarity between the 1920’s, the 1990’s & the 2020’s – dealing with derivatives that took on a life of their own and ultimately became the proverbial ‘tail wagging the dog’.
In the 1920’s, it was the forerunner to the modern-day ETF – with shell companies purchasing shares of overly-expensive stocks (often on margin and always at already-elevated prices) and then issuing shares so that ‘Joe Public’ could afford to ‘play the market’.
In the 1990’s, it was ‘dot-com’ companies – often created out of thin air and with no real product (or anything tangible, not even in the digital world) but allowing ‘Joe Public’ to speculate like the big boys and risk their entire retirement on empty promises.
In the 2020’s, it has been cryptocurrency, and derivatives of cryptocurrency, and then NFTs and memes and whatever else allows Joe Public to speculate with reckless abandon on the promises that a digital trading card is the key to eternal riches.
In each case, those derivative markets take on an oversized impact and importance due to a perilous combination of factors, including:
- Leverage
- Point of entry
- Liquidity
When things are going well, none of those three factors matter.
The leverage allows for increased gains, the (relatively high) point of entry is a non-factor if a market is trading higher, and the liquidity is suitable for handling orders in a bull market.
The problem occurs when things turn negative…
- Leverage works in both directions.
- Point of entry is suddenly a major factor (if you entered NVDA at 160 or Bitcoin at 80,000, you would have a much different perspective than having entered at 40 & 40,000 – two years ago).
- Liquidity tends to dry up – or at least drop significantly – when everyone only wants to sell.
And now, just as 100 years ago, there are multiple levels of derivation – including one that could act in the same exponential manner on the way down: major corporations suddenly devoting chunks of their working capital into the same speculation.
If the derivatives head lower, their stocks could be at risk EVEN IF their core business is still doing fine.
Is this a valid concern?
If ongoing analysis – for Bitcoin to peak in 2025 (initially in July ’25 and then finally in 4Q ’25) and suffer a serious downturn in late-2025… and another plunge in 2026 – is even close to being accurate, it could be a big problem.
This is another instance where the 90/10 Rule of Cycles is likely to apply… and for good reason.
Most investors will not recognize the risk – or connect the unmistakable dots – until it has become obvious to everyone… and then panic mentality sets in.
What is expected in the interim?
Stock Indices are in daily downtrends except, ironically, the DJTA. Most of those indexes bounced today – rallying right to their daily LHR levels without neutralizing their new daily downtrends. That ushers in the potential for another downturn – on Nov 6th or 7th – and the increased potential for an accelerated decline to follow.
It would take daily closes below their Nov 4th lows to confirm that and signal new weakness. That would turn the new intra-month trends down and – in most cases – also have stock indexes close below their flattening daily 21 Low MACs.
That could coincide with the potential for the S+P Midcap 400 to extend its sell-off into Nov 7/10th… and then set a future low around Dec 8 – 10th.
That would coincide with the DJTA focus on early-Dec ’25 – when a low would fulfill 8-month & 4-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progressions, a ~2-month/~9-week high-high-low-low-low-low-(
The Dollar Index continues to show the Sept ’25 low is likely to be a multi-month bottom – fulfilling a ~12-month/~360-degree high (Sept ’22) – high (Sept/Oct ’23) – low (Sept ’24) – (low; Sept ’25) Cycle Progression… that projects a future low for Sept ’26.
More importantly, the price & wave structure of that low demonstrated that it should hold for at least 2 – 3 months and potentially for 3 – 6 months. The primary factor needed to validate that was for the weekly trend to turn up…
Not only was the Dollar Index able to accomplish that – turning the weekly trend up – it did so while almost simultaneously triggering another positive (multi-month) signal with the weekly 21 MAC…
Since its July ’25 initial low, the Dollar Index has been tracing out a bullish weekly 21 MAC sequence and completed that by closing above the weekly 21 High MAC and then turning its direction positive in the ensuing weeks. If additional indicators turn positive in the coming weeks, the Dollar Index could stretch this rally into January ’26.
On an intermediate basis, the Dollar Index is fulfilling analysis for a second multi-week wave advance with an upside objective above 101.00/DXZ (101.36/DXZ is the weekly LHR for the current week). It could spike up to its May ’25 high near 102.00/DX.
The Euro is tracing out an opposing decline that should make it to 1.1380/E6Z or lower. Reinforcing that, the current week’s HLS (extreme downside target) is at 1.1386/E6Z for the 2nd week out of the last 3. The Aug & Sept ’24 highs (resistance turned into support), a primary wave target (new decline equals Sept/Oct decline), and the monthly 21 High MAC are at ~1.1340 – 1.1360/E6Z and represent related downside targets…
Inversely similar to the Dollar Index, the Euro could stretch its overall correction into January ’26 and likely test ~1.1200/ECZ – where its May ’25 low (a type of 4th wave of lesser degree support) coincides with a 50% retracement of the 2025 advance…
Bitcoin & Ether continue to correct after Bitcoin attacked & held major upside targets (~125,000 – 127,000/BT) while perpetuating multiple Cycle Progressions. It continues to hold its July ’25 peak (despite spiking above it) – a cycle when major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.) set major peaks and turned decisively down.
Ether set a divergent peak in late-Aug – fulfilling its multi-year upside wave target and a 38-week low-high-high-(high: Aug 25 – 29, ’25) Cycle Progression.
An initial decline into Nov 7/10th has been likely and additional downside could be seen in the coming days. Multiple weekly cycles could extend that decline into Nov 14 – 21, ‘25… depending on the price action of the coming days.“
Bitcoin is corroborating early-October sell signals and reinforcing the likelihood for a sharp decline into Nov 17 – 21, ’25 that is likely to coincide with a plunge in stock indexes as well. Most stock indexes are pinpointing Nov 17 – 24th as the most likely time for an accelerated sell-off to take hold, in sync with their weekly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs as well as cycles bottoming in early-December ’25.
In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of parallels that should/would come into focus in 4Q 2025, when related cycles have been projecting a major shift in many financial and currency-related markets… as well as stock indexes, interest rates and energy markets. That (now) is when the first big sell-off in Bitcoin is most likely… leading into the second half of November ’25. Stocks are now similar.
One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle reverses:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Are Bitcoin & Crypto Stocks Poised for Accelerated Declines?
Why Are Bitcoin & Stock Indexes Focused on Nov 17 – 21st for Plunge?
What is Seismic Shift Projected for 4Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.