Bitcoin Validating Mid-Dec. Cycle Low & Initial Buy Signals; Second Round of Buy Signals Triggered Now – Late-March Should Trigger Accelerated Rally!
Bitcoin Validating Mid-Dec. Cycle Low & Initial Buy Signals; Second Round of Buy Signals Triggered Now – Late-March Should Trigger Accelerated Rally!
03/18/19 – The Bridge – Currency Wars & Cryptos II:
As the markets move through this historically-significant cyclic period – the latest phase of the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars, from 2013 – 2021 – they continue to provide new clues as to what to expect from the culminating phases of that cycle…
The Dollar Connection
Bitcoin is the consummate ‘anti-Dollar’. As a result, its biggest up moves have been when the Dollar is declining and its biggest drops have been when the Dollar is recovering. While this does not mean that every weekly move is (inversely) correlated, it shows that the primary moves are closely related.
In late-2013 – Jan. 2017, Bitcoin remained in a trading range between roughly $200 – $1,100 as the Dollar steadily rallied. Bitcoin was slowly gaining a foothold in the Currency Wars, but was unable to break out while the Dollar was rallying.
Then, with little warning, it happened…
The Dollar entered a sharp correction – dropping about 15% from Jan. ’17 into Jan. ’18. It was its largest decline in over 7 years… removing the primary impediment for Bitcoin’s gains.
As the stability in the Dollar eroded, and with it – the faith of many investors and speculators, the appeal of cryptocurrency increased exponentially. A bubble was born. Bitcoin exploded and inversely moved in lockstep with the Dollar – surging to stratospheric levels as the Dollar dropped.
The speculative value of Bitcoin created a bubble that lasted until the Dollar’s descent was nearly complete. And then the opposite occurred…
The Dollar bottomed and stabilized and Bitcoin – and the entire cryptocurrency arena – plummeted.
For the first 6 – 9 months of 2018, Bitcoin trended lower as the Dollar trended higher. In Aug. – Oct. ‘18, the Dollar consolidated near its high as Bitcoin consolidated near its low.
In Nov. ’18, the Dollar broke out to a new high… and that was the last straw for cryptocurrency. Bitcoin plunged – reaching its extreme downside target at ~3200 – as the Dollar peaked.
Since then, both currencies have vacillated near their respective extremes. The Dollar has steadily topped while Bitcoin has steadily bottomed. In many cases like this, the weekly 21 MARC identifies when those markets are going to elevate their moves – from topping process to sharp decline or from bottoming process to strong advance.
So, it is not surprising that a myriad of Dollar indicators and analysis have been projecting this very same thing – the start of a multi-month decline in late-March/early-April 2019.”
Bitcoin is triggering a second round of buy signals that project a sharp rally beginning in late-March. It already reached its major, 6 – 12 month & 1 – 2 year downside target at ~3,200 as cycles were bottoming in mid-Dec. 2018. It now has multiple indicators turning positive that project an accelerated advance in the coming weeks and months.
If Bitcoin can trigger one additional signal (by/in late-March), it would elevate this rally to the next higher level and project an advance into June/July 2019 – in opposition to Dollar cycles.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.