Bitcoin & Dollar Peaking; Watch January 10 – 17th For Tops… 1Q ’25 Sell-offs Likely.
01/05/25 – “The Dollar Index remains strong and is reinforcing its late-Sept ‘24 bottom – the latest phase of a ~3.25-year/~39 – 40 month cycle that has governed the Dollar Index for 3 – 4 decades (from the May 2021 low). It also fulfilled an 80 – 81-month low (May 2011) – low (Jan/Feb 2018) – (low; Sept/Oct 2024) Cycle Progression.
The monthly charts project a secondary peak in January ‘25. The Dollar Index could wait until mid-January before setting that top. A peak at that time would complete back-to-back advances of equal duration (16 weeks each) while perpetuating an ~8-week cycle that has created a low-low-high-low-high Cycle Sequence and is likely to create a successive high on Jan 10 – 17, ’25.
The Euro is negative and is fulfilling the outlook for an overall decline into January ’25, before a multi-month low becomes more likely. That would perpetuate a 28 – 29-month high-high-low-low-(low; Jan/Feb ’25) Cycle Progression and likely time a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom.
Since mid-June, the Euro has also adhered to a ~5-week cycle – creating a ~5-week low-high-high-high-high-high Cycle Progression with the recent phase fulfilled at the Dec 6th peak. That has now spurred a ~5-week decline into January 6 – 13, ’25 – when a (multi-week) low becomes a higher probability scenario.
The Yen headed progressively lower during December and fulfilled the potential to spike down to its July 2024 low. It remains near that vital support…
On a broader basis, the Yen bottomed in precise sync with its 17-Year Cycle (from its 2Q 2007 low) – attacking its 1990 low (~.6250/JY, from two 17-Year Cycles ago) where it set a major low…
Bitcoin fulfilled most of what was expected from a wave ‘V’ rally (see chart in Dec ‘24 INSIIDE Track) that originated at the wave ‘IV’ low in July/August ‘24 – in precise sync wth its ~10-month high-low-low-low-(low; July/Aug ’24) Cycle Progression.
That spurred a multi-month surge into Nov/Dec 2024 – the same time of year in which Bitcoin set major highs in 2017 & 2021 and intervening lows in 2018 & 2022.
In doing so, Bitcoin fulfilled another form of wave similarity – rallying for the same magnitude ($55,00 – $60,000/BT) as it did in March ‘20 – April ‘21 AND in Nov ‘22 – March ‘24. A peak around 108,000/BT would precisely match the magnitude of its previous (‘22 – ‘24) advance.
So far, that is exactly where Bitcoin has peaked.
On Dec 16 – 20, ‘24, Bitcoin spiked up to ~108,000/BT and then triggered an outside-week/2 Close Reversal lower – providing an initial sign of a developing top. A weekly close below 91,000/BT would provide another confirming signal.
Looking out into 2025, Bitcoin has the greatest synergy of intermediate cycle lows in early-Feb & early-March ‘25 – when a corrective wave(s) could bottom. Intervening price action needs to clarify.
Ether maintains a ~10.5-month (43 – 46-week) low-high-high-(high; Jan ’25) Cycle Progression that reinforces the potential for a downturn in January 2025.”
Bitcoin attacked $108,000/BT and fulfilled MAJOR upside price targets as well as annual cycles (that peaked in December ’24). Mid-January ’25 cycle highs are expected to spur an initial decline into early-February and a follow-up decline into early-March ’25 – capable of plunging back to [see publications for details].
What Would a Bitcoin Wave V Peak Mean for 1Q 2025?
What Would a Bitcoin Wave V Peak Mean for 2025?
How are Other Cryptos Showing Relative Weakness?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.