Bitcoin’s Bubble Bursting Projects Drop to 13,800/BT!
06/22/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – The Other Golden Rule – “On June 8 – June 20, Bitcoin lost nearly half its value – exhibiting another variation of the 90/10 Rule of Cycles (90% – or a large majority – of a price move often occurs during the final 10% – or very small minority – of a cycle… right as a market is surging into a peak or plunging into a bottom).
Somewhat similarly, the final 6 trading days – of its ~6-week decline leading into May 12 – saw Bitcoin shedding about 35% of its value. Both culminating phases of this ~6-week high-low-low Cycle Progression timed the largest percentage of the overall moves in the final days.
This type of action was also seen on the way up, most notably during the final weeks of the larger-magnitude surges that peaked in Dec ’17, June ’19, Jan ’21 & Nov ’21. The final surge coincided with a culminating rally in many stocks and also fulfilled the outlook for the crescendo of the latest phase of currency wars.
Throughout the 2010’s, INSIIDE Track publications highlighted the culminating 7th phase of America’s 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars (finales & dramatic shifts in 1781, 1821, 1861, 1901, 1941, 1981 & 2021) – projected to usher in a seismic economic and financial shift in the years and decades after 2021.
The final ~6 years of that 40-Year Cycle – from late-2015 into late-2021 – was projected to trigger many parabolic moves.
That was reiterated in dozens of issues of INSIIDE Track, including the May ’21 issue – addressing another of those markets prone to the 90/10 Rule of Cycles (the reason it could be termed ‘The Other Golden Rule’):
4-29-21 – “The markets have entered a momentous time when 5 – 10-year trends and shifts were projected to culminate, 40-year cycles and trends were projected to shift and larger-degree cycles – like the 80-Year Cycle of War – were projected to enter a new and decisive phase.
At least part of these shifts are also linked to the uncanny influence of the ~11-Year Sunspot/Solar Cycle that bottomed in late-2019 and is likely to accelerate higher in 2021 and 2022. That could create all kinds of unintended consequences…
Among the events or shifts projected for 2020/2021 were:
– Completion and transition of ongoing 40-Year Cycle of Currency War.
– Parabolic phase in Gold/Silver bull markets as well as Bitcoin/crypto bull markets.
– Food Crisis Cycles prompting substantially higher prices in grains and foodstuffs…
– Related accelerated advances in grains, beginning with Soybeans in 2020 and shifting to Wheat (and Corn)…
– Culmination of US Dollar correction from 2017 peak (and onset of new 1 – 3 year advance) – in the first half of 2021.
– Major bottom and onset of multi-year uptrend in interest rates, beginning in mid-2020.
– Onset of multi-year war cycle linked to 80-Year Cycle of War (1781, 1861, 1941, 2021) – beginning in 2021 and impacting several years that follow.”
With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, one can see how these markets fulfilled what had been forecast for 5 – 10 years prior, pinpointing 2021/2022 as the time for their fulfillment and a massive shift:
Culmination of Currency War – √
Parabolic rally in Bitcoin/cryptos – √
Parabolic surges in Gold/Silver – √
Food Crises in 2020 – 2022 – √
Soybean, Wheat & Corn Surges in 2020 – 2022 – √
US Dollar Bottom & 1 – 3 Year Advance – √
Multi-year uptrend in interest rates – √
Onset of War Cycle in late-2021 – √
As Bitcoin was fulfilling the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars – and its own sub-cycle of 4 years that projected a Major peak for Nov/Dec ’21 – Gold & Silver were again validating their own adherence to the 90/10 Rule of Cycles. Two prime examples occurred during the sell-offs in March ’20 and the subsequent surges in July/Aug ’20 – leading to decisive peaks.
A subsequent Gold surge in Feb/Mar ’22 was a similarly accelerated advance…
Bitcoin reached its second 6 – 12 month downside target (triggered at the Nov ’21 peak) near 20,000/BT and did spike below 18,000/BT before rebounding. It is negative until a daily close above 24,000/BTU.
On a 6 – 12 month basis, Bitcoin remains on track for an overall decline into Sept ’22 (see related ~15-month HCP diagram) and could easily reach its primary 1 – 2 year downside target at ~13,800.
That is where the June ’19 peak took hold (resistance turned into support) and is where the current decline since March ’22 (‘C’ wave) would equal the magnitude of the initial decline (‘A’ wave) from Nov ’21 into Jan ’22.
It is also where the 80/20 Rule of Bubbles would be fulfilled. This principle (though not termed that at the time) was displayed and discussed in 2002 with regard to tech stocks and in 2015/2016 with the XAU. In both cases, and potentially in Bitcoin, a bubble gives back 80% of its value and drops to a level that is ~20% of its peak price.
The dot.com bubble peaked in early-2000.
The XAU bubble peaked in late-2000 – almost 11 years later (Solar Cycle correlation??).
And, the Bitcoin bubble peaked in late-2021 – almost 11 years later.
Will it ultimately lose 80% of its peak value?”
Bitcoin, in Nov ’21, fulfilled what its monthly and weekly trend indicators projected and what its overall wave structure necessitated – a surge to new all-time highs (~66,000+/BT) ushering in a major top in late-Oct/early-Nov ‘21. That also fulfilled the multi-year outlook for a major advance into 2021 when Currency War Cycles culminated.
Since then, Bitcoin has been projected to plunge into Sept ’22 – when monthly cycles project the next major low.
What does this mean for the future of cryptos?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.