Bonds & Notes Rallying into ~July/Aug ’21 Cycle High; ~12-Month Decline Should Follow.
Outlook 2021/2022 – Inflection Point
07-01-21 – There are certain times when it is strongly advised to step back, assess your surroundings, review your plan of action (or expectations), decide whether that plan needs any tweaking or revising, and then resume your forward progress.
Now is one of them!
One of the key reasons for that involves the stock market and the culmination of an uncanny 16-Month Cycle that has been projecting a multi-month peak for June 2021. To put that in proper perspective…
June ‘21 is 16 months from the decisive Feb. ‘20 peak – that preceded a ~40% correction; Feb ‘20 was 16 months from the Sept/Oct. ‘18 peak – that preceded a ~20% correction; Sept/Oct ’18 was ~16, ~32, ~48 & ~64 months from a series of lows in 2013 – 2017, creating a textbook 16-month low-low-low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and projecting a multi-month peak for May/June ’21 (see HCP diagram on page 3).
Synergy
This stock market cycle peak is occurring as Solar Cycle 25 is picking up steam and threatening to cause disruptions in the next 2 – 3 years (or longer; see June ‘21 INSIIDE Track). As stated last month:
“2021/2022 has cyclic relation to many previous (significant) solar storms and is expected to be an unstable period. As a result, it is no surprise that so many related market cycles could have a corresponding impact. They include inflationary cycles, interest rate cycles, stock market crash cycles, gold & silver cycles, and even US Dollar cycles… That ~11-Year Sunspot Cycle is closely linked to a 10 – 11-Year Cycle of Earth Disturbances that pegged major quakes in 2010 – 2011 and was expected to recur in 2021 – 2022”
This stock market cycle peak is also occurring as an 80-Year Cycle of War is returning to greet America and the globe. The most recent occurrences were in 1781 (culmination of Revolutionary War), 1861 (onset of Civil War) and 1941 (US entry into World War II). That cycle flows back for many centuries prior and has been documented for over a decade.
And it is occurring just as the latest 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars nears fruition in 2021….
Since 2013, INSIIDE Track has detailed this cycle and why it was expected to usher in another battle for currency supremacy – between fiat (debt-backed paper) currency and hard currency (gold/silver) – lasting from 2016 – 2021. Digital currency joined in the fray.
That was forecast to trigger a major advance in Gold from 2016 (termed The Golden Year beginning in 2014, due to expectations for the onset of a multi-year upswing in Gold to start in 2016) into 2021. There were a series of related reports published in 2014 that detailed these expectations and also included ongoing analysis for 2019 – 2021 to see the recurrence of Disease and Influenza/Virus Cycles:
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2016-The-Golden-Year-III.pdf
At the time, all those expectations sounded a little extreme (at least to some readers that voiced their skepticism). Nowadays, they don’t look so crazy!
There are also Middle East War Cycles that recur in 2021/2022. They have been discussed in many articles but one particular one detailed its overlap with the 11-Year Cycle of Stock Panics and Global Shaping Events – described in Feb/Mar 2019.
insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/ 2020/04/11YC-Stock-Panics-Global-Shaping-Events-1.pdf
That analysis explained how multiple cycles would converge in late-2019/early-2020 and trigger a ‘global-shaping event’ (Covid ‘19???) and resulting stock panic… while looking ahead to related cycles in 2021/2022. Needless to say, it is a prime time to ‘take stock’ of what is expected to (soon) follow…
Stock Indexes are at a major inflection point, fulfilling (or have recently fulfilled) the 1 – 2 year outlook for major advances from March ‘20 (when multi-year cycles bottomed) into May/June ‘21. That outlook was reinforced in Sept/Oct ‘20 when equities corrected and then triggered new 3 – 6 month signals – also projecting surges into May/June ‘21… A multi-month peak in Jan./Feb. ‘22 – 8 months from the May/June ‘21 cycle high – would also reinforce another cycle that has been uncanny throughout much of the past decade – the 2-Year Cycle.
It would arrive 2 years from the Jan./Feb. ’20 high, which was 2 years from the Jan ’18 high that was 2 years from the Jan/Feb ’16 low that was 2 years from the Jan ’14 low.
Bonds & Notes remain on track for an overall advance into July/Aug ’21 – when they are expected to set a secondary peak (primary peak was July ’20). A peak in July ‘21 (ideal scenario) would arrive 1 year/360 degrees from when multi-year cycles peaked in July 2020 and complete a 50% rally in time (32 weeks down/16 weeks up), from the late-March low (July 6 – 9 is precise week).
Bonds corroborated that when they set a secondary low in early-May – 8 weeks from their mid-March low. That created an 8-week low-low-high Cycle Progression targeting July 6 – 9. That is also when an ~11-month low (Oct ’18) – high (Sept ’19) – high (Aug ’20) – high (July ’21) Cycle Progression recurs.
They continue to recover after setting a multi-month bottom in Mar. ’21 – the latest phase of a 64-week low-low-low Cycle Progression that links to the two most significant lows of the past few years (Oct. ’18 & Dec. ’19). The next low in that series is expected around mid-2022.
A peak in mid-2021 would reinforce that potential.
The action of July/Aug ‘21 could powerfully reinforce the overall outlook for interest rates (inverse of Bonds/Notes). Bonds & Notes were projected to set a multi-year peak in July ’20 in perpetuation of an uncanny 4-Year Cycle that timed multi-year highs in July ‘12 & July ‘16 and preceding lows in mid-2004 and mid-2008 (see diagram above).
The next phase of that 4-Year Cycle comes into play in ~July 2024 and should time another multi-year (secondary/lower) high.
In between those two major cycle highs, Bonds & Notes were/are expected to decline for 2 – 3 years and then rebound into mid-2024. That means that interest rates could slowly rise (and Bonds fall) in 2021 and 2022, possibly extending into 2023.
While cycles have projected that outlook for the past couple years, it was only in the past couple weeks that Fed Chairman Powell ‘shocked’ the markets by revealing an outlook that is uncannily similar to what cycles have been forecasting since 2019.
Longer-term investors and hedgers could have been liquidating long positions in Bonds & Notes and selling on intermediate rallies in 3Q/4Q ‘20. Wait until new rebound highs (above 2Q ‘21 highs) are set before adding to short positions.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Bonds & Notes are confirming that they set a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom in March ‘21 and should rally into July/Aug ’21 – when a secondary (lower) high is expected. They are in the early stages of a projected 2 – 3 year downtrend after fulfilling analysis for a multi-year peak in ~July ’20 AND projections for the top of a final, wave 5 of V advance (v of 5 of V).
Many factors were projecting an initial surge in inflation into 2021… with other phases expected to follow… coinciding with multiple natural and geopolitical cycles. Overlapping this, many stock indexes were projected to peak in May/June ’21. A future peak (Jan/Feb ’22) could reinforce that a major peak is forming. Bonds should drop into at least 3Q ’22 (1/2 of 4-Year Cycle; with Oct ’22 representing a 4-year low-low cycle) and likely longer (2Q ’23?).
2021/2022 is expected to usher in the first shift in multi-decade cycles (40-Year & 80-Year Cycles) – timing everything from War (late-2021 into late-2025), Climate (Drought Cycles peak in 2021/22 and shift to Deluge Cycles in 2022/23), Agriculture (80-Year Cycle shifts in 2022/23), Currency Wars (2021)… and Interest Rates. The final year(s) of a 40-Year Cycle of Drought (into 2021/2022; see 90/10 Rule of Cycles) could magnify commodity inflation in the coming years.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.