Bonds, Inflation, Interest Rates & War Cycles.
Outlook 2022/2023 – Inflation Energy Peaking?
08-31-22 – Throughout the past 8 – 10 months, a lot of focus has been placed on a powerful convergence of cycles in Sept ‘22. Among the related cycles discussed are:
— Stock Index ~8-Month Cycle
— Gold/Silver ~6-Month Cycle
— Inflation Multi-Year Cycle High
— Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency Low
— Next Phase of War Cycle
It is the latter one that might be the most significant since Sept ‘22 completes the first ‘year’ of the late-2021 – late-2025 recurrence of the 80-Year Cycle of War… and ushers in a far more significant one with respect to the Middle East.
Middle East ‘Years’
Throughout the past 25+ years, INSIIDE Track has discussed the significance of the Jewish civil year when timing events that surround or focus on Israel. Since most of the Middle East wars of the past century have involved Israel – directly or indirectly* –
[*Even when a Middle East war does not initially involve Israel, they become a focal point like when Saddam Hussein began attacking Israel in the hopes to sway some Arab nations to his side during the initial Persian Gulf War.]
With so many parallels to 1973 – 1974 expected – and already reaching fruition – in 2022 – 2023, it should not be overlooked that the Yom Kippur War took place in Oct 1973.
Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year) begins at sundown on Sept 25, 2022. Yom Kippur (Day of Atonement) begins at sundown on Oct 4, 2022. The period surrounding those ‘high holy days’ in Judaism could take on added significance this year.
However, it is the significance of the year that follows Rosh Hashanah that is the real focal point (- Sept 2023; see inset as well as following analysis).
There have been several multi-year (or multi-decade) cycles that have impacted Israel and/or the Middle East… and that have been discussed in past issues of INSIIDE Track. One is an uncanny ~11-Year Cycle – that is linked to a specific phase of the Solar Cycle – and has timed repeated conflicts in or targeted at Israel.
Another is a trio of 100-Year, 50-Year & 25-Year Cycles that recurs in 2023. The following is a brief recap of the 25-Year Cycle and events that have been previously discussed:
— 1848 – Vienna (and European; Germany, Austria, Italy, Prussia) Revolution – leading to a new role for European Jews (and emancipation in all lands of the Habsburg Empire);
— 1873 – Beginning of (~25-year) Great Depression in Ottoman Empire; ~25 years after its culmination, the Empire was defeated and being carved apart / Reorganization of Palestine; Jewish ‘aliyahs’ to Palestine began shortly after. / URJ (Reformed Judaism) created in North America.
— 1898 – Zionist Congress
— 1923 – San Remo Conference* (created current borders throughout Middle East following defeat of Ottoman Empire and liberation of Jerusalem)
— 1948 – Foundation of Israel; Arab/Israeli War
— 1973 – Yom Kippur War; brought USA & USSR to the brink of war
— 1998 – Declaration of Jerusalem as the eternal capital of Israel at the same time the Islamic World declared ‘we have the bomb’ (after successful nuclear test by Pakistan).
— 2023 – Latest phase of this 25-Year Cycle of Israel/Jerusalem/Middle East (??).
2023 is the latest phase of a related 100-Year Cycle – linked to the Middle East being carved up into (mostly) its current borders and nation states. Sept ’22 – Sept ’23 is also a 100-Year Cycle from the creation of the Palestine Mandate in late-1922 (final amendments added) – until its effective date in Sept. (29) 1923.
2023 is the latest phase of a related 50-Year Cycle – linking the publication of ’The Jew’ in NY in 1823 to the Reorganization and subsequent populating of Palestine in 1873 to the current Middle East being created in 1923 to the surprise attack against Israel in 1973 – bringing two major nuclear superpowers to the brink of conflict. Hmmm. Are any events in 2022 bringing Russia and the US into potential conflict?
On a possibly-related topic, Sept/Oct ‘22 (greatest synergy in Sept ‘22) is the latest phase of the 15 – 16-Month Cycle in Crude and Energy markets and could time a culminating peak. Connection??…
Bonds & Notes rallied into late-July/early-Aug ’22 – the latest phase in a ~12-month cycle that has timed highs in July/Aug ’18, July/Aug ’19, July/Aug ’20 & July/Aug ’21. They have since turned their weekly trends back down, confirming those cycle peaks as likely 2 – 3 month (or longer) highs.
Bonds & Notes fulfilled upside price projections for those previous rallies – attacking upside targets at 145 – 150/US & 122-00 – 124-00/TY. That was expected to usher in a multi-month period of congestion.
On a broader basis, they are moving in lockstep with inflationary expectations for 2020 – 2022 and with analysis for a multi-year peak in mid-2020 followed by a 2 – 3 year decline.
Longer-term investors and hedgers could have liquidated long positions in Bonds & Notes in 3Q ‘20 and sold intermediate rallies in 3Q/4Q ‘20 and added to short positions in Aug ‘21, in sync with trading strategies described in INSIIDE Track. 3 – 6 month traders could have [reserved for subscribers].” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Bonds & Notes are confirming inflation cycles and fulfilled analysis for a rebound peak in late-July/early-Aug ’22 followed by another drop to new lows (and corresponding rise in interest rates). Inflation cycles should keep pressure on Bonds (and consequently stocks) through the end of 2022 and ultimately push interest rates higher into March/April ‘23.
2021/2022 was expected to usher in a dramatic shift in multi-decade cycles – timing everything from now-validated War Cycles (late-2021 into late-2025), European Unification Cycles (2022 – 2025), Drought Cycles that peak in 2021/22 and shift to Deluge Cycles in 2022/23, Agriculture Cycles that time 80-Year shifts (beginning in 2022/23), Currency Wars (2021)… and Interest Rates.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.