Bonds Project March ’21 Low & Bounce into ~July ’21; Inflation Growing.
Outlook 2021 – Parabolas
02-27-21 – “Bonds & Notes are powerfully reinforcing the 1 – 2 year outlook after peaking in lockstep with an uncanny 4-Year Cycle that timed multi-year peaks in July 2012 & July 2016 (after timing previous lows in mid-2004 and mid-2008) and was forecast to time a final peak in ~July 2020 (+ or – 1 month).
That was projected to be a major top and usher in a multi-year decline in Bonds & Notes (and rally in interest rates, seeing rates begin to rise in 2021), coinciding with expectations for commodity price inflation in 2Q ‘20 through 2Q ‘21 (the first stage).
The next phase of that 4-Year Cycle – in ~July 2024 – should time a secondary, lower high. In between, Bonds & Notes are expected to decline for 2 – 3 years and then rebound into mid-2024. On an intervening basis, they have been expected to see a secondary, lower high (on a lesser magnitude basis) in June – Aug. ‘21.
The ideal scenario would have them declining into the first half of March ‘21 and then rallying into mid-year – a 50% rebound in time.
On an intermediate basis, Bonds & Notes were expected to set an intermediate bottom in the first half of Jan. ‘21. That low was set on Jan. 12 and they remained in weekly downtrends throughout the ensuing rebound. Daily trends turned back down on Feb. 4, ushering in a new leg down that penetrated the Jan lows, 5 weeks from when Notes set that low.
A subsequent low is expected around the same time in March (March 8 – 12) – perpetuating a ~2-month/~60-degree low-low-low Cycle Progression.
Longer-term investors and hedgers could have been liquidating long positions in Bonds & Notes and selling on intermediate rallies in 3Q/4Q ‘20. If they bottom in the first half of March, wait until June ’21 before adding to short positions.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Bonds & Notes are in what is projected to be a 2 – 3 year downtrend after fulfilling analysis for a multi-year peak in ~July ’20 AND the peak of a final, wave 5 of V advance (v of 5 of V). A multitude of factors are projecting an initial surge in inflation in 2021… with other phases to follow. Bonds should drop into at least 3Q ’22 (1/2 of 4-Year Cycle) and likely longer (2Q ’23?)
Stocks & Silver (paper & commodity inflation) triggered 6 – 12 month buy signals in March ‘20 as multi-year cycles bottomed… with stocks projected to advance into May ’21 before a multi-month peak would become likely. Lumber & Natural Gas also triggered March ’20 buy signals… ushering in a multi-year inflationary period in many commodities.
2021/2022 is expected to usher in the first shift in multi-decade cycles (40-Year & 80-Year Cycles) – timing everything from War (late-2021 into late-2025), Climate (Drought Cycles peak in 2021/22 and shift to Deluge Cycles in 2022/23), Agriculture (80-Year Cycle shifts in 2022/23), Currency Wars (2021)… and Interest Rates. The final year(s) of a 40-Year Cycle of Drought (into 2021/2022; see 90/10 Rule of Cycles) could magnify commodity inflation in the coming years.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.