Bonds Reinforce Natural Year Shift; Project Rally into ~July ’21.
Outlook 2021 – 2021 Recap
04-29-21 – “The markets have entered a momentous time when 5 – 10-year trends and shifts were projected to culminate, 40-year cycles and trends were projected to shift and larger-degree cycles – like the 80-Year Cycle of War – were projected to enter a new and decisive phase.
At least part of these shifts are also linked to the uncanny influence of the ~11-Year Sunspot/Solar Cycle that bottomed in late-2019 and is likely to accelerate higher in 2021 and 2022.
That could create all kinds of unintended consequences as sudden solar storms can impact Earth’s geomagnetic fields with only a couple days’ warning. 2021/2022 has cyclic relation to many previous (significant) solar storms and could be an unstable period.
That ~11-Year Sunspot Cycle is closely linked to a 10 – 11-Year Cycle of Earth Disturbances that pegged major quakes in 2010 – 2011 and was expected to recur in 2021 – 2022 (with related volcano cycles overlapping both of those periods of time and stretching an unstable period a couple years beyond 2022).
Articles and analysis that were produced in 2009 – 2011 and focused on this phenomenon – detailing the natural and cyclic connections – can be found at:
insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/earth-in-transition-33.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/earth-in-transition-33-ii.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/earth-in-transition-33-iii.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/earth-in-transition-33-iv.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/earth-in-transition-33-v.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/earth-in-transition-33-vi.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/january-2010-it.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/february-2010-it.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/march-2010-sunspot-volcano-cycles.pdf
https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/february-2011-japan-eq-cycles.pdf
It is important to understand those cycles in order to better appreciate what has been anticipated (in addition to solar storms and earth disturbances) for the coming years. Among the events or shifts projected for 2020/2021 were:
– Completion and transition of ongoing 40-Year Cycle of Currency War.
– Parabolic phase in Gold/Silver bull markets as well as Bitcoin/crypto bull markets.
– Food Crisis Cycles prompting substantially higher prices in grains and foodstuffs – whether supply or demand related.
– Related accelerated advances in grains, beginning with Soybeans in 2020 and shifting to Wheat (and Corn) in 2021 and back to Soybeans in 2022.
– Culmination of US Dollar correction from 2017 peak (and onset of new 1 – 3 year advance) – in the first half of 2021 .
– Major bottom and onset of multi-year uptrend in interest rates, beginning in mid-2020.
– Onset of multi-year war cycle linked to 80-Year Cycle of War (1781, 1861, 1941, 2021) – beginning in 2021 and impacting several years that follow.
In crucial respects, all of these expectations are related. The key is identifying the connecting threads and acting accordingly…
Bonds & Notes set a bottom after dropping into the latest phase of a 64-week low-low-low Cycle Progression that links to the two most significant lows of the past few years (Oct. ’18 & Dec. ’19). The three most significant lows (if the late-March ‘21 low holds for 3 months or more) of the past three years are now spread in perfect symmetry.
The recent low also corroborates the ongoing outlook for a secondary, lower high to be set in June – Aug. ‘21. With the latest low taking hold in late-March, a subsequent 50% rally in time (32 weeks down/16 weeks up) would take Bonds & Notes higher into July ’21. That is also when an ~11-month low (Oct ’18) – high (Sept ’19) – high (Aug ’20) – high (July ’21) Cycle Progression recurs.
In order to confirm the late-March low, Bonds & Notes need to turn their weekly trends up. Notes are in a position (after neutralizing their weekly downtrend multiple times) where it would only take a weekly close above 132-24/TYM to turn the weekly trend up. (Bonds cannot do the same until at least May 21 and the trigger point is not yet established.)
On a broader basis, Bonds & Notes were projected to set a multi-year peak in July ’20 in perpetuation of an uncanny 4-Year Cycle that timed multi-year highs in July ‘12 & July ‘16 and preceding lows in mid-2004 and mid-2008. The next phase of that 4-Year Cycle comes into play in ~July 2024 and should time a secondary, lower high.
In between those two major cycle highs, Bonds & Notes were/are expected to decline for 2 – 3 years and then rebound into mid-2024. That means that interest rates could slowly rise in 2021 and 2022, possibly extending into 2023.
Longer-term investors and hedgers could have been liquidating long positions in Bonds & Notes and selling on intermediate rallies in 3Q/4Q ‘20. Wait until July ’21 before adding to short positions.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Bonds & Notes have likely set a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom and should rally into July ’21 – when a secondary (lower) high is expected. They are in the early stages of a projected 2 – 3 year downtrend after fulfilling analysis for a multi-year peak in ~July ’20 AND projections for the top of a final, wave 5 of V advance (v of 5 of V). Many factors were projecting an initial surge in inflation into 2021… with other phases expected to follow. Bonds should drop into at least 3Q ’22 (1/2 of 4-Year Cycle; with Oct ’22 representing a 4-year low-low cycle) and likely longer (2Q ’23?).
This is also the early stages of projected inflationary surges in many commodities, likely to extend into 2022… coinciding with multiple natural and geopolitical cycles.
2021/2022 is expected to usher in the first shift in multi-decade cycles (40-Year & 80-Year Cycles) – timing everything from War (late-2021 into late-2025), Climate (Drought Cycles peak in 2021/22 and shift to Deluge Cycles in 2022/23), Agriculture (80-Year Cycle shifts in 2022/23), Currency Wars (2021)… and Interest Rates. The final year(s) of a 40-Year Cycle of Drought (into 2021/2022; see 90/10 Rule of Cycles) could magnify commodity inflation in the coming years.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.