Cru-Ca-Ble Cycles Portend Trouble

Cru-Ca-Ble Cycles Portend Trouble!
Russia (RuBle) Cycles Collide in 2016/2017.
Oil Prices Could Wallow Until 3Q 2017.

 

03/01/16 INSIIDE Track:   

 

“As Russian cycles enter their most volatile period – in 2016/2017 – the dominoes continue to fall.  In many respects, Putin & Co. are experiencing a Perfect Storm of economic hardships – some self-induced and some out of their control – leading into this period.  At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it is never a good idea to back a bear – particularly a hungry & frustrated bear – into a corner.  That rarely ends well!

Before enumerating the key ’fronts’ – that are on a collision course with one another – I want to recap the phases of Russia’s 40-Year Cycle that converge in 2016/2017:

1776 (1775–1781) – Part of Russia’s ‘Golden Age’; Tacit support of American colonists; Relations with America.

1816 – Culmination/aftermath of Napoleonic Wars due in large part to Russia (and Napoleon’s failed invasion of Russia);  Russia plays a new & greater role in Europe’s politics from 1816–1856.

1856 – Culmination of Crimean War (1853–1856); Treaty of Paris – humiliating defeat for Russia; made Black Sea neutral territory.

1896 – Coronation of final Tsar/Russian emperor (Nicholas II)… Ultimately leads to Russian Revolution.

1936 – Constitution of the Soviet Union.

1977 – Soviet Constitution – 3rd & last Soviet Constitution.

2016–2017 – Russia’s next major ‘shift’, based on 40-Year Cycle.

2017 is also 100-Year Cycle from the Russian Revolution in 1917… and a 17-Year Cycle from Putin’s ascent.

2016/2017 is the next phase of an overlapping 80-Year Cycle Progression that includes 1696 (Peter the Great brings Russia into Age of Enlightenment – modernizing Russia while building her navy, beginning with attacks against Ottoman forces – also in 1696), 1776, 1856 & 1936… and 2016!

Now, as Russia enters this 2-year period – when another dramatic shift is very likely – she has seen (just since 2014) a major confrontation with Saudi Arabia, after which oil prices plummeted for 15–18 months, a new Crimean (& Ukraine) conflict (prompting Western sanctions), a plummeting Ruble, plummeting oil prices (wiping out export income) and then reacted by taking a more aggressive stance in Syria – beginning in late-2015.

Putin’s moves in late-2015 revealed the Russian Bear coming out of hibernation and looking to ‘re-engage’.

Luckily (yes, that is facetious), Russia was already turning to China to offset her economic woes and inking a deal in May 2014 (the same time that both countries became involved in multiple financial entities to challenge the global supremacy of the IMF & World Bank) to build two major gas pipelines from Russia to China.

A funny thing happened on the way to the Kremlin… China’s economic miracle began to fade.  And, so too did the prospects for a major Russia/China natural gas deal.  And all of a sudden, one pipeline project was shuttered… sending another economic shockwave through Russia.  And that sent another shockwave through the Ruble – which is now worth about a quarter of what it was in July 2008.

As the Russian economy falters & their primary export plummets in value, unrest continues to grow… and to look for an external target (scapegoat).  Some times that target is nearby (Ukraine, Crimea).  Some times it is a little farther away (Syria, Saudi Arabia, etc.).

Some times it is military.

Some times it is economic.

And just as in politics, there are times when ’the enemy of my enemy is my friend’.  As China & Russia sink farther into economic quagmires, how long before they ’join forces’ and flex whatever economic muscle they have? …2016/2017??”

 

Russian Bear being backed into corner.  Look for aggressive retaliatory moves in 2016/2017… and major shift in foreign policy… consistent with uncanny 40-Year Cycle.

US Elections, IMF developments, geopolitical & geophysical cycles focus on late-2016 to accelerate these cycles and usher in a tumultuous period into/through 2018.  Crude cycles focus on 3Q 2017–3Q 2018 as the time when geopolitical challenges are likely to intensify.