Crude Fulfills Projected Sell-off
Crude Fulfills Projected Sell-off;
Sets Stage for Impending Bottom…
2017 – 2019 = Oil & Middle East Cycles.
05/31/17 – Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil completed the projected drop from cycle highs on Feb. 20–24, 2017 into cycle lows in early-May 2017. That also fulfilled the monthly HLS (extreme intra-month downside target) pattern set in March 2017…
From a broader, more general (or fundamental) perspective, 2017 remains an intriguing year for oil… particularly in light of recent discussions that President Trump might want to sell off a chunk of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to raise cash…
This also ties into Middle East cycles (2018–2021 Unification Cycles) and Israel cycles (2017/2018 = major inflection point). The period of 2017–2019 has so many ties – via the 40-Year Cycle – to the tumultuous period of 1977–1979. For starters…
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was first authorized in Dec. 1975, in response to the oil embargo (implementation of ‘oil weapon’ by Saudi Arabia & OPEC) in 1973. 1977 timed the construction of the first sites with July 21, 1977 marking the first oil (Saudi light crude) delivered to an SPR site. Despite this defensive endeavor, the US would face another oil shortage in 1979. 40 years later is 2017–2019.
Overlapping that period, another Middle East precursor was unfolding. On June 6, 1976, Syrian troops entered Lebanon – at the request of Christian groups – in the early days of Lebanon’s Civil War. Within two years, Syria switched sides – aligning with Muslim & Palestinian forces and attacked Beirut’s Christian neighborhoods in July 1978.
40 years from that 1976–1978 period is 2016–2018, when Syria has its own civil war, drawing in the US & Russia on opposing sides.
In Jan. 1977, President Carter refocused on Middle East peace. Soon after, Egypt’s Anwar Sadat visited Jerusalem (Nov. 19, 1977). That was followed by a visit to Camp David (1978) and the ultimate signing of the Camp David Peace Treaty on March 26, 1979. A few months later, the Islamic Revolution took hold with a vengeance.
2017–2019 is a complete 40-Year Cycle from all of these events… and appears to have several shadows cast forward from 1977–1979 (as discussed last month).”
Crude Oil fulfilled projections for a sharp decline from late-Feb. into early-May – reinforcing longer-term analysis for a secondary low in 2Q/3Q 2017 before bullish cycles take hold in Sept. 2017. 2017 – 2019 represents a unique convergence of multiple 40-Year Cycles – likely to impact the Middle East and oil. Related Special Reports elaborate on this analysis.