Crude/Energy Complex Bottoming
Crude/Energy Complex Bottoming.
1Q ’16 Low Intact; 3Q ’17 = Focus.
2017 – 2019 Could Mimic 1977 – 1980
01/31/17 – Natural Gas surged into late-Dec. – 6 months/~180 degrees from the late-June peak. That confirmed the 12–13 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Nov. 9th low. A subsequent low is possible in early-Jan. (9th?).
Natural Gas remains on track for an overall rally into Feb. 2017 and to (at least) ~4.500/NG. On a longer-term basis, Natural Gas is likely to set its next multi-year peak in 1Q 2018 – the completion of a ~4-year low (1Q ‘02)–high (Dec. ‘05…1 month shy)–high (1Q ‘10)–high (1Q ‘14)–high (1Q ‘18) Cycle Progression and the culmination of successive ~2-year advances** (1Q ‘12–1Q ‘14 & 1Q ‘16–1Q ‘18).
Those advances are separated by a similar ~2-year decline (1Q ‘14–1Q ‘16) – creating some cyclic symmetry. An intervening peak in 1Q ’17 (mid-Feb–mid-March) would create a corroborating ~1-year/~360-degree low (March ’16)–high (Feb./Mar. ’17)–high (~March ’18) Cycle Progression projecting the same thing. [**A ~2-year advance is a very common occurrence in Natural Gas, corroborated by major rallies in 3Q ’06–3Q ’08, 3Q/4Q ’03–3Q/4Q ’05, 1Q ’99–1Q ’01 & Jan. ’95–Dec. ’96…1 month shy).
A peak in 1Q 2018 would also complete a full 17-Year Cycle from the culmination of the first (of 3 successive) 400–600% surges – in 1Q 2001.”
Projected bottoming phase in Crude continues to unfold. Sustained advance not likely until after mid-2017 (watch Sept. 2017 for early stage of new bull market). Nov. ’16 INSIIDE Track recently elaborated on corresponding outlook for Natural Gas while Dec. ’16 INSIIDE Track explained intermediate cycles in Crude (expected to trigger a new sell-off after mi-Feb.).