Crypto Downside Culmination? DJIA & Stocks Portend Final Spike Low!
04/02/25 – “The Gauntlet”
INSIIDE Track has often described the first ‘month’ of the Natural Year (~March 19th – April 19th) as a time of great sacrifice. It has been discussed with respect to all of the battles and attacks that coincide – often culminating in the days surrounding the Date of Aggression (April 19th). This period – the start of Spring – is described in the Old Testament as ‘the time when kings went off to war’.
It appears 2025 is repeating the pattern.
As of today, the long-awaited gauntlet has been thrown down and a modern-day war – a trade war – has been initiated (or escalated). The question for the markets is now a simple one:
Will the markets prefer certainty over uncertainty?
Is the newly-revealed certainty better or worse than the fears generated in the midst of prior uncertainty?
Is this the lesser of two evils… or the greater?
The next 1 – 2 days could go a long way in revealing how the markets will digest this news…
Stock Indices reversed lower on March 26th – after fulfilling a convergence of intermediate cycles that included a ~17-week/~4-month high-high-high-(high; Mar 24 – 28) Cycle Progression and the midpoint of an over-over-arching ~35-week/~8-month high-high-high-(high; Nov 25 – 29, ‘24) Cycle Progression – and dove into month end.
That was reinforced by the DJIA bouncing right to its multi-week upside target at 42,801 – 42,907/DJIA (50% rebound, weekly LHR, weekly 21 Low MAC & weekly 2CR) with most indexes bouncing to their declining daily 21 High MACs and reversing lower – projecting one more decline before an intermediate low could become more likely.
After dropping into month-end, stock indexes rallied to weekly resistance levels leading into mid-week… and the announcement of massive trade tariffs.
That combination reinforced the potential for a final spike low in early-April, with stock indices initially targeting their weekly support levels… Once the first 3 trading days of the month are complete, it would take a daily close below that range to turn the new intra-month down. If a market is poised for a multi-week rally, it will often not turn that trend down.
Even before that is established, the April 3rd close could go a long way in determining if the negative reaction – to this tariff ‘clarity’ – has any staying power…
Bitcoin & Ether have retreated after rebounding for ~two weeks with Bitcoin peaking while twice neutralizing its daily downtrend and testing weekly resistance, its declining daily 21 High MAC, and its rising weekly 21 Low MAC.
It sold off from there but would not signal a new decline until a daily close below 80,000/BT. The new intra-month trend should also help clarify.”
Bitcoin is showing some signs of bottoming but is still expected to attack ~74,500/BT before a multi-month bottom becomes more likely. This could coincide with a final stock market spike low as powerful cycles bottom. Stocks & cryptos are setting the stage for a decisive low to be set during the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year – between March 20 – April 19, ’25 – with a final capitulating sell-off projected for early-April ’25.
That would then turn the focus to future cycle highs – in July & Nov/Dec ’25. Bitcoin’s cycles peak again in late-July ’25 – the next phase of its uncanny 16-month Cycle Progression that has been repeatedly highlighted over the past couple years. It is also the next phase of corroborating ~6-month & ~11-month Cycle Progressions.
See the November ’24 issue of The Bridge for additional analysis and illustrations of this 16-month cycle and its focus on July 2025… The Bridge – “Currency War: Rock, Paper, Scissors II”
When Will Bitcoin Likely Attack ~74.500/BT (and Bottom)?
How High Could Cryptos Subsequently Climb into July ’25 Cycle High?
What Impact Should Early-April Stock Market Cycle Lows Have?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.