Cryptocurrency Trading: Why Are Multiple Indicators Projecting an April Surge in Bitcoin? How High – and How Long – Could Rally Extend??
Cryptocurrency Trading: Why Are Multiple Indicators Projecting an April Surge in Bitcoin? How High – and How Long – Could Rally Extend??
03/18/19 – The Bridge – Currency Wars & Cryptos II:
The 21 MARC Connection
In the previous installment of Currency Wars & Cryptos (published on Dec. 14, 2018 and describing why a multi-month bottom was at hand), I described the recurring ~5-month cycle in Bitcoin. To review:
12-14-18 – “From a timing perspective, Bitcoin continues to move in ~5-month trends and ~5-month cycles. In late-2017, mid-Dec. 2017 was the timing target for a major top – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive rally of 5 months’ duration. That is when it peaked. Ensuring (descending) peaks were expected in May & Sept. ’18, with sharp declines to follow each.
At the same time, Bitcoin has set a series of lows at ~5-month intervals – in late-March ‘17, early-Sept. ‘17, early-Feb. ‘18 & late-June/early-July ‘18. The next phase of that ~5-month cycle is in the first half of December, which is now unfolding.
While it could easily stretch its decline a week or two beyond that cycle, the point is that Bitcoin’s decline is nearing another important juncture – like it did in late-June/early-July – when a 3 – 6 month low could take hold. It is also 360 degrees from its major, mid-Dec. 2017 peak.”
So, what’s the connection?
A ~5-month cycle consumes approximately 21 weeks.
So, Bitcoin’s highs & lows have not been the only thing swinging at ~5-month/~21-week intervals. Its accelerated moves are also often occurring at the same interval – but in opposing directions.
As a result, the sharp decline of Nov. 2018 is now setting the stage for a sharp advance in April 2019.
Will price action corroborate? The most critical confirmation would be the weekly trend turning up – with a weekly close above 4259/BTC.
Since that would also involve a positive weekly 21 MAC signal, it would become that much more significant. However, there is another important signal that would generate…
It would now take a weekly close above 4115/BTC to turn the intra-year trend up. If/when that occurs, it would project an overall rally into June/July 2019.
That is noteworthy since Bitcoin has a 17 – 18 month low (July ‘13) – low (Jan. ‘15) – high (June ’16) – high (Dec. ’17) – high (June 2019) Cycle Progression portending the same thing.
A rally into June 2019 would also complete a 50% rebound in time – rallying for 6 months from its Dec. 2018 low after declining for the preceding 12 months, from the Dec. 2017 peak.
A weekly close above xxxx/BTC (which would turn both the weekly trend and intra-year trend up) would project a strong rally back to 5100 – 5200/BTC in the immediate future and ultimately back to ~6000/BTC – where repeated lows were set between Feb. 2018 and Sept. 2018.
As a result, ~6000/BTC represents a pivotal level of ‘support turned into resistance’ on a 1 – 2 year basis.
In the interim, multiple monthly LHRs are aligning at ~5050 – 5150/BTC and are near the monthly 21 Low MAC at 5185/BTC. Those levels could be tested in the coming month(s).
Traders can be building long positions, following the Dec. 2018 bottom, and looking for a rally back to ~6,000/BTC. The risk now would be a weekly close below 3350/BTC.”
Bitcoin is triggering a second round of buy signals that project a sharp rally beginning in late-March (or slightly sooner). It now has multiple indicators turning positive that project an accelerated advance in the coming weeks and months – with an initial surge to ~5050 likely within weeks. Dollar cycles and indicators concur and pinpoint April as a bullish time for Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin can trigger one additional signal (by/in late-March), it would elevate this rally to the next higher level and project an advance into June/July 2019 – in opposition to Dollar cycles.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.