Date of Aggression Looms as Silver & Platinum Corroborate Buy Signals.
04-16-25 – 17-Year Cycle, Natural Year & Date of Aggression – “
Natural Year Omens
The first month of the new Natural Year is nearing completion with several markets entering culmination phases of their 3 – 6 month or 6 – 12 month trends. As described before, the Natural Year begins with the Vernal equinox and ushers in a time of change… often dramatic change. The first part of that period sets the stage for the ‘year’ that follows.
The reason has to do with what is described as the first ‘month’ of the Natural Year. It is the first ~30-day period following the Vernal equinox… and holds great significance for the ensuing ~11 months of that Natural Year (until Vernal equinox 2026).
Opening Range
For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as most agricultural-based societies do), an annual ‘renewal’ kicks off the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox (March 19/20, ‘25).
However, it is often the end of that ‘month’ that is most important… for multiple reasons.
As is so often the case in the markets, an initial surge, or plunge, will often take place during that ‘opening range’ and lead to an initial peak (or low) in the days surrounding April 19th – the culmination of that period AND the Date of Aggression.
Blow-offs
That is a critical factor in determining the ensuing intra-year trend. However, it is often the completion of a multi-month move at the same time.
Why is this time so pivotal?
The Sun governs our seasons, which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. It also has a dramatic impact on our overall lives. This has been true in farming/ag-based societies for thousands of years. It was true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun and established their calendars accordingly – much of which remains in our modern-day calendar.
As such, the Vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death). There is often a flurry of activity in those initial few weeks.
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year.
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – usually from March 20 to April 19/ 20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is an annual time to watch for signs of ‘change’ on many levels.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. Current fundamental events are corroborating this, nearing a crescendo in everything from a looming trade war to a trio of geopolitical conflicts (Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Hamas & US/Iran).
Along with that, a leading market is repeating an annual pattern and preparing to set a multi-month peak (if ongoing cycle analysis is accurate). That market is Gold and it is fulfilling the potential for a blow-off rally leading into the week(s) surrounding the Date of Aggression. More on that in a minute.
For those newer readers who might not be familiar with the Date of Aggression, this was first discussed in INSIIDE Track in the 1990’s and involves a unique date in history that has timed dozens of momentous events in US history, all of which represent an extreme form of aggression. They include:
- First shot of Revolutionary War
- First shot of Civil War
- Start of Spanish/American War
- Failure of Bay of Pigs Invasion
The days surrounding April 19th also include:
- Assassination of Abraham Lincoln
- Battle of San Jacinto (the final shot in the war for Texas independence)
- Thornton Affair (first shot in Mexican-American War)
- Doolittle Raid on Japan (America’s first ‘shot’ on the Japanese homeland in WWII)
- League of Nations dissolved
- End of Viet Nam conflict & fall of Saigon
- Operation Praying Mantis (1988; largest battle of surface warships since WWII)
- Waco/Branch Davidian debacle
- Oklahoma City Bombing
- Columbine High School massacre
- Virginia Tech shooting
- Boston Marathon bombing
- Metcalf sniper attack
… to name a few.
These types of events do not occur every year but there are often more subtle forms of aggression leading into the days surrounding April 19th. Related reports can be found at insiidetracktrading.com…
Stock Indices are tracing out a bottom with the S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 remaining fairly resilient during today’s tech sell-off…
Gold & Silver bottomed immediately after Silver fulfilled what it signaled & projected in Dec ’24. Back then, Silver turned its weekly trend down after Gold had failed to do the same thing. Silver’s wave structure identified the post-Dec rally as a ‘B’ wave advance that would ultimately give way to a ‘C’ wave decline – needing to drop below the mid-Dec ’24 low…
Silver peaked in lockstep with its weekly trend pattern and reversed lower in late-March, during the week after its weekly 21 MAC had turned down.
It quickly fulfilled the minimum downside target for this ‘C’ wave decline – dropping below the mid-Dec low while matching the magnitude of its ‘A’ wave decline (Oct – Dec ’24 decline). It was projected – as it has been since Nov ’24 – to find its most significant support (and likely bottom) near 27.60/SIK.
That was/is Silver’s 4th wave of lesser degree support and the price level where Silver had been projected to most likely set a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom.
Silver spiked down to 27.54/SIK – fulfilling all of its 2 – 4 week, 1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month downside objectives – and immediately reversed higher.
Reinforcing the likelihood for an early-April bottom, Silver fulfilled the potential to repeat the duration of its largest previous decline (22 – 23 weeks) and perpetuated geometric cycles that included a move of 180 degrees from its Oct ’24 peak and – looking forward – a low that is ~360 degrees prior to major cycles in ~April 2026.
At the same time, Gold experienced another quick, sharp pullback – attacking the convergence of three weekly HLS levels (downside extreme targets) at 2940 – 2993/GCM, with the two most influential at 2940 – 2980/GCM.
Gold spiked down to 2970/GCM and bottomed in the middle of monthly support – while nearly matching the magnitude of two previous higher-magnitude corrections – before resuming its advance.
Gold has been forecast, since late-2024, to set two pivotal peaks in 2025 – the first around ~early-May ’25 (+ or – 1 – 2 weeks) and the second in ~November ’25. While early-May ’25 is the ideal scenario in respect to its over-arching (~12.5-month) cycle, Gold has a more synergistic convergence of weekly cycles a little before then…
A 1 – 2 month high – on April 14 – 25th – would fulfill a consistent 23 – 24-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and would also repeat a pattern seen in recent years in which Gold sets a multi-week or multi-month peak in the middle part of April – coinciding with the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19th) and/or the Date of Aggression.
This would represent a potential blow-off top in line with Natural Year ‘opening month’ expectations and the potential to perpetuate an annual/~360-degree cycle of Gold signaling similar occurrences.
It also ‘jives’ with the ~7-Year Cycle analysis of Gold discussed periodically over the past ~two years in which Gold’s 2022 – present advance is mirroring several timing aspects of its 2015 – 2020 advance.
In that previous bull market, Gold initially surged into the middle part of 2016 (after bottoming in 4Q 2015) and then set a subsequent peak in April 2018… that held for over a year.
In the current bull market, Gold bottomed in 4Q 2022 (7 years later), initially surged into the middle part of 2023 (7 years later) and is poised to peak in the middle part of April 2025 – 7 years after the April 2018 peak. The parallels continue.
Gold has surged into mid-month and into mid-week while attacking its weekly Raw SPR at 3391/GCM but would not show any signs of a 1 – 2 week top until (at the very least) a daily close below 3201/GCM.
The XAU & HUI produced multiple bullish developments last week after the XAU dropped to 1 – 2 month support that included the Feb ’25 low (150.84), the high of the year-opening range (resistance turned into support at 152.18/XAU) and the March ’25 low at 152.48/XAU.
It spiked down to 152.02 on April 7th – attacking and reversing higher from its rising weekly 21 AND 40 High MACs – a potential bullish development that received reinforcement on April 8 – 11th.
Recent action is reinforcing the potential for an overall rally into early-June ’25. In the interim, a 1 – 2 week top could be seen now (mid-week & mid-month) after it attacked weekly resistance and a monthly LHR (extreme upside target) grouped at 196.33 – 199.56/XAU.”
Gold & Silver remain in divergent wave structures with Silver (and Platinum) preparing to enter a new multi-month advance after Silver finally fulfilled what has been projected since December ’24 – a drop to ~27.60/SI, its 4th wave of lesser degree support. That is also in sync with the outlook (& cycles) for Platinum & Palladium, with Platinum now entering a potentially bullish time.
Gold & the XAU portend initial highs in the coming ~week. However, the month of April ‘25 and the week of April 7 – 11, ’25 are when cycles and multiple corresponding timing AND price indicators were expected to turn bullish and reinforce the ongoing outlook for a Major surge in Silver & Platinum in 2025… projected to take hold in April ’25.
The April ’25 INSIIDE Track detailed why Platinum is on the cusp of a Major advance, stating: “This could be one of the ‘golden’ (or is that ‘platinum’) trading opportunities of 2025!”
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
April 2025 ushers in a new and reinforcing phase of this overall shift and could spur major rallies in key metals. See current publications for the most updated analysis.
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Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.