Decennial Cycle Poised to Impact Stocks
11/29/16 INSIIDE Track:
1857 – Panic of 1857
1907/1908 – Panic of 1907 (Oct.) AKA – Banker’s Panic, Knickerbocker Crisis (50% drop in NYSE)
1917 – Stock crash – 40% drop from late-Nov. 1916 into Dec. 1917 (It was soon followed by a worse crash in 1919–1921, when the market lost over 46% – a double-whammy in a mere 4–5 years’ time).
1937/1938 – Second stock market crash (49%) following abrupt Fed tightening; Industrial production plummeted 30%, unemployment rose 30% (from 14+ to 19%), manufacturing dropped almost 40%,
1947/1948 – UK economic (& fuel) crisis/Sterling Crisis – harsh winter & coldest temps in 300 years. 2008 was dubbed as the worst recession since 1947 (in UK)
1957/1958 – Global Economic Crisis (Eisenhower Recession)
1967/1968 – UK/Sterling Crisis & devaluation… beginning of gold drain that led to 1971 Nixon Shock in US.
1977 – Spain Banking Crisis (precursor to US S&L Crisis) 40 year cycle from Spain’s 1976/1977 banking – and currency & stock market – crisis brings us to 2016/2017… when another banking crisis is unfolding, right on schedule.
1987/1998 – Financial Crisis (following Black Monday); (European Precursor? 1988–92 Norwegian Banking Crisis)
1997/1998 – Asian Financial Crisis & Russian Ruble Crisis
2007/2008 – American/European Financial Crisis (Iceland, UK)
2017/2018 – European/American Financial Crisis?? Chinese Financial Crisis?? Negative Interest Rate Crisis???
Nov. 29, 2016 – Considering ongoing expectations that Europe is accelerating downhill – at least until 2018 and potentially as late as 2021 (since 2018–2021 is when EU Re-unification Cycles converge and are projected to take hold AFTER destabilizing events push Europe to the brink of dissolution) – I have included events in Europe & the US in calculating this 160-Year table of ‘7’ & ‘8’ Year Financial Crises. It should not be overlooked that 1857 – 4 phases of the 40-Year Cycle & 2 phases of the 80-Year Cycle ago – is considered the first truly global financial crisis.
With corroboration from the 17-Year Cycle (turning down in Jan.–Mar. 2017) & the 40-Year Cycle (see analysis in Nov. 2016 INSIIDE Track) coming into play in 2017, this 10-Year Cycle should not be underestimated. It is intriguing that related financial crises – in the UK and even Spain – occurred in lockstep with this Decennial Cycle. Is it any surprise that both of those nations provided dramatic ’warning shots across the bow’ in 2016?
Traders should view this, however, as just ONE potentially negative factor for the coming year(s). It is the synergy – of this and many other reinforcing cycles – that should add credence to the outlook for 2017–2021.
Another related cycle reinforces the omnipresence of the ~8-Year Cycle and the overlapping ~17-Year Cycle (since the ~8-Year Cycle is often closer to 8.5 years, the midpoint of a full 17-Year Cycle). This one is an ~8-Year Cycle of Bubbles & Bursts. It includes 1973–1981 – the bubble & burst of Gold & Silver, 1982–1990 – the bubble & burst of the Nikkei, 1992–2000 – the bubble & burst of dot.com & 2000–2008 – the bubble & burst of housing & real estate. In each case, a new bubble took hold in the ensuing year – beginning a new 8–8.5 Year Cycle. 2009 was the start of the latest phase and pinpoints 2017 as a precarious (burst?) year.
There are multiple candidates for the primary bubble this time – a sobering thought reflecting the myriad of financial entities in the waning stages of parabolic moves. There is another global housing bubble (Vancouver, etc.), that is more selective in the U.S. this time. There is a student loan/debt bubble.
But, I am more focused on the implications of the fiat currency bubble… the massive (gov’t) debt bubble… the negative interest rate loan bubble… all connected & all pointing to 2017/2018 (-2021). If/when the market really believes interest rates are heading higher, it could have a snowball effect on all this debt… a large-scale example of ’compound interest’. IT
Multiple long-term cycles argue for bearish period in second half of 2017. 8.5-Year Cycle (from 1Q/March 2009) portends dangerous period beginning in 3Q 2017. Decennial Cycle jives with that, pinpointing 3Q/4Q 2017 as a VERY precarious period. By 3Q 2017, the 17-Year Cycle AND 40-Year Cycle will also be in negative phases, that could/should extend into 2018 and potentially 2019.
See INSIIDE Track for additional details & analysis.