Disease Cycles: Influenza, Covid, and More

1-30-2006 – “As the sunspot cycle prepares to turn up (most likely by 2008, even though unprecedented solar flares have been seen during the downswing in sunspots), a marked increase in solar magnetic storms will begin to bombard the earth.  It is likely to have a destabilizing effect and accelerate or exacerbate some of these already tenuous situations…Another vulnerability has to do with disease…

It is interesting that the three major influenza outbreaks of the last century all coincided with… the sunspot cycle.  However, there is also a distinct decennial cycle – that impacts both Flu outbreaks and discoveries – as well.  Consider the following…

                1889/90 – Killer Influenza: China to US.                   1907/09 – SF Plague (following 1906 EQ)

                1918 – Killer Influenza (‘Spanish Flu’)                       1957/58 – Hong Kong Flu

                1968/69 – Asian Flu                                                         1977 – New strain of Flu discovered

                1997 – Another new strain of Flu discovered

                120, 100, 90, 50, 40, 30 & 10 years later is 2007–2009.

A few years ago, people were convinced the Ebola Virus was the next global pandemic.  Later, it was SARS.  Now, it is thought to be Bird Flu… Killer Disease cycles converge in 2007–2009… There are other ‘Disease’/’Plague’ cycles that reach fruition in 2008 – 2012.” 

INSIIDE Track, February 2006

2-27-2006 – “The Bible often refers to war and pestilence in the same passage.  Earthquakes also coincide with at least some of these mentions.  Celestial disturbances are also included in some of these discussions.  I cite this as a partial answer to a question I have not yet even posed.  In the spirit of the $10,000 Pyramid, the question to the answer is:

Things that closely link together cycles.

I am sometimes questioned why certain cycles are mentioned along with others (i.e. earthquake cycles with market cycles or Middle East cycles with disease cycles, sunspot cycles with war/peace cycles, etc.).  On the surface, they seem as different and diverse as night & day.

However, similar to night & day, they are often two sides of the same coin.  Just as nighttime and daytime combine to make one complete day, most of these diverse topics go together to make one complete cycle in human history.  It only takes a moderately attentive look at human history to note the coincidence of many – sometimes all – of these various cycles…

One only needs to look back at 1945 – 1950 to see the convergence of earthquake, climate, war, political and Middle East events.  A look at 1914 – 1918 shows an alignment of disease, political, war & Middle East events…

The same can be said about another time frame that was examined last month.  It is the period of 532 – 542 AD, in which a Major volcanic eruption, comet impact, or both coincided with the Justinian Plague and impacted political and war cycles for centuries to follow…The truly fascinating (and potentially terrifying) event is when all of these cycles converge in one narrow window of time…”

INSIIDE Track, March 2006

2-27-2006 (con’t) – “With that said – and with years of additional groundwork already laid – I want to elaborate on a topic I discussed last month:  Cycles of Disease.

Perhaps no other time in history can the discussion of disease and war be so closely linked together.  Although there have been times that certain accusations were leveled (like the one that accuses Jews of causing the Black Plague), and times when disease actually was used in battle, this is the period of human history when so much research and planning has gone into using disease as a weapon of war.

With that said, there was an intriguing editorial in October 2005 I have been intending to discuss.  The following contains some excerpts from it:

The Terrorist Among Us…

by Charles Krauthammer

“…perhaps the most momentous event of our lifetime…It was announced two weeks ago that American scientists have created a living, killing copy of the 1918 ‘Spanish’ flu.  This is big.  Very big.

….It’s re-creation is… the first ever resurrection of an ancient pathogen… “the agent of the most important disease pandemic in human history.”

Beyond the brilliance lies the sheer terror.  We have quite literally brought back to life an agent of near-biblical destruction.  It killed more people in six months than were killed in the four years of World War I.  It killed more humans than any other disease of similar duration in the history of the world…

…when the re-created virus was given to mice in heavily quarantined laboratories in Atlanta, it killed the mice ‘more quickly than any other flu virus that has ever been tested.’

…Not only has the virus been physically re-created, but its entire genome has now been published for the whole world, good people and very bad, to see.  The decision to publish was a very close and terrifying call… Can we figure out how to pre-empt it before it figures out how to evolve into a transmittable form with 1918 lethality that will decimate humanity?

…resurrection of the virus and publication of its structure opens the gates of hell.  Anybody, bad guys included, can now create it.  Biological knowledge is far easier to acquire for Osama bin Laden and friends than nuclear knowledge.

…Nature, which published the full genome sequence cites…Richard Ebright as warning that there is a significant risk ‘verging on inevitability’ of accidental release into the human population or of theft…

One batch of 1918 flu has the capacity for mass destruction that no Bond villain could ever dream of.  Why try to steal loose nukes in Russia?  A nuke can only destroy a city.  The flu virus, properly evolved, is potentially a destroyer of civilizations.  We might have just given it to our enemies.  Have a nice day.”

So, here we are…  entering a period (2007 – 2009) that is the decennial anniversary of every major flu outbreak or flu discovery of the past 120 years (see February 2006 INSIIDE Track for discussion on flu cycles from 1889/1890, 1907/1909, 1918, 1957/1958, 1968/1969, 1977 & 1997) and is exactly 120 years from the end of the last outbreak of Bubonic Plague in Europe (Russia, ending in 1889) & 450 years from a devastating outbreak of Bubonic Plague in London…

…and taking the biggest disease-related gamble in history.  Either this decision will provide the knowledge to combat H5N1 bird flu before it takes hold OR it will provide the knowledge to perpetuate bird flu as a means of terror & warfare.  Now, that’s a GAMBLE.

And I don’t suppose it is worth noting that in Sept. 2005 ABC News reported on the disappearance of 3 laboratory mice carrying the Bubonic Plague bacteria from a University in New Jersey that conducts anti-bioterrorism research for the US gov’t.

My purpose in mentioning this is NOT to sensationalize this event or to sound alarming.  In all probability, the 3 mice were probably the result of poor accounting and were never any threat to humans.  However, it reinforces the risk of trying to prevent potential outbreaks: The research might end up causing an outbreak itself (whether by criminal or accidental means).  This risk is rising steadily as the urgency for more research is felt… and that vicious circle will just naturally accelerate over time…

Could Disease Cycles play any role in this?”  [End of March 2006 INSIIDE Track analysis]

INSIIDE Track, March 2006

2-26-2009 – “17-Year Cycle in Disease…

“There were a few other events in the past 60 days that also warrant a review…

One very disconcerting revelation was the January 21/22 story that 40 al Qaeda terrorists were killed by the Black Death Plague.  Yes, that ‘Black Death’.  The one that decimated Europe – and some other nations – during the 1340’s (and had another surge in Holland, London and Vienna between 1663 – 1679). 

This Plague (also known as Bubonic Plague) appeared in the late-1320’s and early-1330’s and reached its peak in the late-1340’s.  It killed 30 – 60% of Europe’s population and 20-25% of the world’s population in the 1300’s.

680 Years (17-Year Cycle times 40 ‘periods of testing’) after its late-1320’s discovery and 340 Years (the mid-point of that 680-Year period and another higher-degree multiple of the 17-Year Cycle) after the 1663 – 1679 outbreak, the Black Death has reared its ugly head.  Of course, this time it could have been deliberate.  The question is “Can it be stopped as quickly as it was started?”

INSIIDE Track, March 2009

1-29-2010 – “The 17-Year Cycle

I have often discussed the 17-Year Cycle and how I believe it will impact Middle East Peace in 2010 & 2011 (17 Years from the Oslo Accord, the Oslo War, reconciliation between Israel & Rome & the Jerusalem Covenant).  It would not surprise me – as I have also discussed before – to see a crescendo in both events (war and peace) during this 2-year period… 

However, there are other events that could experience their own 17-Year Cycle in 2010 (or 2011).  One of those has to do with major floods… Another is linked to Japanese earthquakes.  2010 is 17 years from a major, 7.5 earthquake that hit Japan in June 1993 and an even larger 7.8 that hit Japan – and created a tsunami – in July 1993, ushering in a very unstable period. 

In and of itself, this would not mean a great deal other than its role in the ongoing 17 Year Cycle of Earth Disturbance Swarms. 

However, when it is combined with all of the other cycles in 2010 & 2011 – many of which apply directly to Japan – it takes on added significance…

June/July 2010 represents the culmination of one 17-Year Cycle in Japan and the onset of a new one… a type of transition that is also akin to the progression of ‘birth pains’.

The latest 17-Year Cycle began with back-to-back-to-back earthquakes in July 1993, 1994 & 1995…  The final years have also seen multiple major earthquakes (4 of 6.6 or greater magnitude) in Japan…       July 2010 is the transition point of this Cycle and July 2011 represents the early stages of a new one.  Both could be significant… Cycles of Destabilization & Instability… They’re all coming to a head in 2010/2011…

‘Signs in the Sun’

The (approximate) 11-Year Sunspot Cycle identifies the ebb and flow of solar activity.  This is important since this activity – massive explosions on the surface of the Sun – generate electro-magnetic storms that sometimes bombard earth.

Being a magnetic planet, and electro-magnetic creatures (why else would EKGs & EEGs be so effective), these storms – or lack thereof – have a profound influence on Earth, Earth’s climate (despite what a modern agenda says)… and Earth’s inhabitants.

As the data on page 5 demonstrates, this Sunspot Cycle is just beginning to turn back up… I have repeatedly demonstrated how this Cycle impacts wars – particularly in the Middle East – and, when coinciding with the geomagnetic, 17-Year Cycle (every 3 phases of the 11-Year Sunspot Cycle closely correlate to every 2 phases of the 17-Year Cycle) also time economic depressions, stock market collapses, banking failures, currency destabilization, earth disturbances, etc.  [This was all described in or before 2007.]

On a larger-degree basis, there are other things that this has timed – like Disease/Plague Outbreaks – and which could become an increased possibility in the coming years [see 2006 – 2009 analysis on Disease/Plague Cycles, including an uncanny 10-Year Cycle of Influenza/Virus Outbreaks that was powerfully reinforced by the 2009 outbreak of Swine Flu or H1N1].”

INSIIDE Track, February 2010

“Pestilence & Earth Disturbances…

04-30-09 – “The month of April was noteworthy, with respect to various topics… April will primarily be remembered for the event that came to light 120 geometric years from the 1889/90 Asiatic/Russian Flu outbreak, 90 geometric years after the 1918/1919 Spanish Flu outbreak and 40 years ‘of testing’ from the 1968/69 Asian Flu outbreak.  It was the 2009 Swine Flu (H1 N1 influenza) outbreak.

As described for many years (see accompanying excerpts for a couple examples from 2006), Influenza Cycles converged in 2007 – 2009 – precede longer-term (less specific) Disease/PlagueCycles that converge in 2010 – 2012 and were described at the same time.  From a cyclic perspective, this latest outbreak is not a surprise.

In addition to the cycles described in these excerpts, there are many others – several of which have been cited in the years preceding 2006.  2010 is exactly 500 years since the first (known) influenza pandemic occurred in 1510.

2010/2011 is 180 geometric years from a major influenza pandemic that originated in China in 1830/1831.  In that case, the 1830/1831 pandemic was the first of 3 major pandemics in a 7-8 year period, with 1833 being the second (moving from Russia into Europe) and 1836-1837 being the third (moving southward from these regions).

Of added interest is that a 4th pandemic took place in 1847 – 1848.  Once again, a very distinct 17-Year Cycle (1830/31 – 1847/48) pinpointed two parallel events that acted as bookends around a 17-Year Cycle of Influenza Outbreaks.

2009 – 2012 is 120 & 240 geometric years from Russia’s two most significant bouts with disease (Plague & influenza in 1889 – 1890 & Plague in 1770 – 1772).  These are just a few more examples of why I have been focused on… previous periods of ‘pestilence’ (following a culmination of influenza cycles in 2009).

One of the intriguing aspects of this has to do with its close correlation – throughout recorded history – to earth disturbances, particularly volcanic eruptions.  However, there is another natural event that has coincided even closer with many of these Disease Cycles…  

Solar Surges & Cycles…

Once again, the evidence argues that the Sun is a major factor in our lives… I believe the Sun is a major influence in every aspect of our lives.  Another of those aspects – in addition to the remote possibility that it warms the Earth – is that of nutrition and vitality (the opposite of disease & pestilence).

[On a sidenote, it is interesting that one of the biggest foci of recent years – in the vitamin/nutrition sector – has been Vitamin D, and the belief that we are severely lacking in our intake of it… another Sun/health/disease connection.]

However, it is NOT just solar surges (peaks in the 11-Year Sunspot Cycle, etc.) that can be unsettling.  It is also the troughs or nadirs – in the various Solar Cycles – that challenge our well-being as a planet.  Again, this is just like in trading.  The most volatility and uncertainty often occurs at the extremes (highs AND lows)…

Solar Extremes…

A perfect example of the latter extreme (Solar Cycle lows) was the rampant spread of plague and disease during the entire Little Ice Age, when solar activity (sunspots & solar storms) was severely suppressed – sometimes non-existent.

One of the most serious examples – at the beginning of the Little Ice Age – was the Black Death Plague of 1347 – 1351, which killed 40 – 60% of Europe’s population (as many as 50 million Europeans) and 15 – 20% of the world’s population (75 million)… and was part of a much larger cycle… 

I have often explained my theory on Heliocentric Years (a term I coined to describe a solar ‘year’ comprised of approximately 11 earth years) and Geometric Heliocentric Years (periods of 15, 30, 45, 60 & 90 Heliocentric Years).  It is a way of viewing time from a geometric, sun-centered perspective and it has divided major epochs in human history.

660 years – or 60 Heliocentric Years – from 1347 – 1351 is 2007 – 2011.

Another serious outbreak in Europe – though ‘only’ taking hundreds of thousands of lives, not tens of millions – occurred in 1665 – 1682, when multiple outbreaks hit London, Germany, Netherlands and culminated with Austria.  This coincided with the lowest level of sunspot activity in centuries (possibly millennia), between 1650 – 1700 and peaked with the Great Plague of Vienna in 1679 – 1682. 

330 years – or 30 Heliocentric Years – from the culmination of this series of outbreaks is 2009 – 2012.

This outbreak overlapped a similar plague that hit the Ottoman Empire…

[NOTE:  I feel compelled to again emphasize some important points when discussing serious issues like disease.  It can be synopsized by my goal to be an ‘Aware-ist’, NOT an alarmist.  Cyclesare not a crystal ball but do identify periods when certain events have a statistically-greater chance for recurrence.  They should be treated in that way. 

This is NOT discussed in an attempt to sensationalize something this serious and/or tragic.  However, it is important to be aware of the unique sequence – on a rather consistent basis – of cycleslike these.  It was important to be aware of War Cycles in late-2001 (detailed in 1999 – early-2001) and of Stock Market Crash Cycles in 2007-2010 (detailed throughout 2007).  It is also important to be aware of Disease Cycles…

And, it is not a sudden interest – after the fact.  This is merely a review of a discussion – with regard to Influenza Cycles in 2009 and Disease/Plague Cycles in 2010 – 2012 – that has been going on for many years (as evidenced by the quotes from early-2006).  Please treat this discussion with common sense and appropriate emotional restraint.] 

What is interesting is that we are currently in one of the lowest periods of solar activity in many decades.  One has to go back to 1913 to find a year with more days – of no sunspots – than what took place in 2008.      And, the pace for the first three months of 2009 was even more extreme (87% of days with no sunspots, as opposed to 73% in 2008).”

INSIIDE Track, May 2009

“’09-’11: Tieing it All Together..

05-28-09 – The period of late-2007 into 2011 has been forecast – for almost a decade – to usher in momentous changes in the Middle East and in the overall geopolitical structure.

The period of late-2007 – late-2008 (Jewish Year of 5768) was projected to see a dramatic turnaround – both a culmination and a transition – in many arenas, including the financial markets.  The 17-Year Cycle corroborated this and identified late-2007 as the time when a 1-3 year/50% decline in Stock Indices should take hold…

As already discussed, disease cycles accelerate into that time frame…

2010/2011 is 180 geometric years from a major influenza pandemic that originated in China in 1830/1831… and actually resulted in 3 major pandemics in a 7-8 year period.

2009 – 2012 is 120 & 240 geometric years from Russia’s most significant bouts w/disease (Plague & influenza in 1889 – 1890 & Plague in 1770 – 1772)… 

Disease, however, is often a secondary event (the result of some other event).  It is more often the ‘effect’ but not the ‘cause’.  In each of the three major periods just cited, major troughs in the solar cycle, the effects of the Little Ice Age, the consequential crop & wealth losses, famine and poor health (‘hygiene’) standards laid the groundwork for these diseases to take hold.

This is why I want to move beyond the discussion on Disease Cycles and on to (or back to) some other cycles that are of equal concern.”

INSIIDE Track, June 2009

09-01-09 – 2010 – 2011 – The Turning Point…

Anyone who has followed news of the past month knows that great attempts are being made to educate the masses on dealing with H1N1 (the artist – or virus – formerly known as Swine Flu). 

These discussions range from how schools are being instructed to handle cases… to how individuals and families should operate in the event of a severe outbreak.

I have heard more than one ‘expert’ describe the possibility that social habits and behavior could be forced to change dramatically – with less unnecessary gatherings (professional sports events???) and more time staying at home for most people.”

INSIIDE Track, September 2009

Plague Cycles Revisited

8/04/09 – China Cuts Off Town After 3 Plague Deaths – Chicago Tribune

“Beijing – Chinese health officials have cordoned off a remote town after three deaths caused by the rare but deadly pneumonic plague…The first victim was a 32-year-old herdsman who died Thursday, four days after falling ill with a fever and cough.  State radio reported that the man contracted the illness from his dog, which apparently was infected by a flea.  The herdsman’s 37-year-old neighbor died Sunday, and a 64-year-old man died Monday.

Nine other people were reported to be ill or under observation, one of them in critical condition… ”Experts continue to carry out disinfecting and pest-control work and are tracing people in contact with victims for quarantine purposes…”

Pneumonic plague is the deadlier relative of the notorious bubonic plague, which killed millions of people in Europe starting in the 14th century.  Spread person to person through the air, it usually kills its victims unless they are treated with antibiotics… So far the disease does not appear to be causing the panic brought on by the far less deadly swine flu, the threat of which has prompted Chinese authorities to put thousands of people into quarantine, among them U.S. tourists.”         

INSIIDE Track, September 2009

10-30-14: “In the last issue, I provided a synopsis of the cyclical synergy coming into play in the next several years.  There were three phases of that synergy:

                1 – Normal (Market) Cycles Synergy

                2 – National Cycles Synergy

                3 – Natural Cycles Synergy

The first of these phases had to do with when normal market cycles – the ones that consume the majority of the analysis & focus in this publication – converge in a given time period.  Sometimes that is weekly, sometimes monthly and sometimes it is yearly (or multi-year) cycles.  However, it always involves market cycles.

Then there are times when synergy of national or geopolitical cycles demands attention.  Similarly, there are times when synergy of natural cycles (earthquakes, volcanoes, sunspots & other phenomenon in nature) demands attention…

Signs in the Sun?

The third synergy of cycles – Natural Cycles – includes the topic of solar activity.  And, as detailed before, that has sometimes coincided with Disease Cycles – a topic about which I have been bombarded with inquiries lately. 

I will elaborate on that next month but have reprinted some previous analysis (page 5) that discusses this correlation and that looks to 2017–2019 when they recur…

Disease Cycles: 2017–2019  (2006 Reprints)

 1-30-2006 – “As the sunspot cycle prepares to turn up (most likely by 2008, even though unprecedented solar flares have been seen during the downswing in sunspots), a marked increase in solar magnetic storms will begin to bombard the earth.  It is likely to have a destabilizing effect and accelerate or exacerbate some of these already tenuous situations…Another vulnerability has to do with disease…

It is interesting that the three major influenza outbreaks of the last century all coincided with peaks in the sunspot cycle.  However, there is also a distinct decennial cycle – that impacts both Flu outbreaks and discoveries – as well.  Consider the following…

                1889/90 – Killer Influenza: China to US.                   1907/09 – SF Plague (following 1906 EQ)

                1918 – Killer Influenza (‘Spanish Flu’)                       1957/58 – Hong Kong Flu

                1968/69 – Asian Flu                                                         1977 – New strain of Flu discovered

                1997 – Another new strain of Flu discovered

                120, 100, 90, 50, 40, 30 & 10 years later is 2007–2009…

10-29-14 — These two excerpts are reprinted to lay the foundation for a future discussion and to respond to a flurry of inquiries regarding the current Ebola outbreak.  The sunspot/disease link discussed in the 1/30/06 excerpt was precisely & profoundly fulfilled with the ’Swine Flu’ outbreak of 2009 (3 years later, but right when projected) – now believed to have claimed about 300,000 lives. 

And that projects focus to 2018/2019 – the next phase of Influenza’s unique decennial pattern (a ~10-Year Cycle) and the time when the next Solar Cycle (25) should be turning back up. 

130, 110, 100, 60, 50, 40, 20 & 10 years from all of these Flu outbreaks is 2017–2019, with 2018/2019 possessing the greatest synergy.  But, that is just one particular ’disease’.”

INSIIDE Track, November 2014

“W.C.C. II – When Cycles Collide in Climate, Sunspots, Volcanoes & Commodities

11, 17, 22, 40, 100 & 200 -Year Cycles Colliding in late-2010’s

11-27-15: I receive many inquiries regarding my outlook for climate change (usually directing me to analysis predicting an imminent Ice Age or the burning up of the planet) as well as corresponding analysis on solar cycles… and commodity (food crisis) cycles… 

As I have stressed repeatedly over the past couple decades, I view myself – and try to convey my analysis accordingly – as an ‘Aware-ist’… NOT an ALARMIST(!!!).            So, while I am convinced that several cycles are entering a period of increasing intensity, I try not to convey apocalyptic intonations…

Many events – if you read about them in advance – would sound apocalyptic… and probably seem that way to those directly involved.  But, from a global perspective, they are just big challenges… not a collapse.

A prime example was when earth disturbance cycles projected Major earthquakes for Chile in 2010, Japan in 2011 & North America for 2012 (see Earth In Transition: 3+3 Reports at http://www.insiidetrack.com/pdf/INSIIDETrackSR200912ET3+3IIem.pdf). 

At the time, the discussion frequently cited the potential for a nuclear ‘incident’, similar to – but worse than – what had recently been seen in Japan.  One quote – from 1/29/10 – explained these massive earthquake cycles and stated: “2010 could/should see some major activity but 2011 is expected to overshadow whatever occurs in 2010.” 

That was written as the world was reeling from the Jan. 2010 Haiti earthquake and in the context of expecting a worse earthquake in Chile soon after… and then in Japan between late-2010 and early-2012 (later narrowed down to early-2011).  The potential ramifications – if those cycles were accurate – were startling!  In many respects, that could sound apocalyptic… but on a regional basis (not to diminish the tragedy of them). 

Chile was rocked by one of the five strongest earthquakes in recorded history – in Feb. 2010 – and Japan was devastated by a massive quake and nuclear incident in March 2011. 

However, that didn’t drive civilization into caves and off the grid.  While it may seem like I am belaboring this point – which I am – it is for good reason… to place these expectations (in this case, for an impending food crisis) in the proper perspective…

To get the ball rolling, let me give a brief overview of what I expect in the coming years.  This outlook touches on each of the topics cited in the title on page 4 and is a very general description of what I could see unfolding…

— First, with respect to climate, I anticipate a similar scenario (of contrasts) to that described in Nov. 2014… Simply put, I could see global temperatures – or at least some measure of them – extending their warming trend a bit more as we move toward 2019/2020. 

There are multiple reasons for that (most will be elaborated later).  Among those are long-term cycles of warming & cooling – cycles that range from 22–25 years (partially linked to sunspot cycles) up to 100–200 years, as well as ~500 & ~1,000-year cycles of climate vacillation. 

If there is one thing that is constant through all those cycles – it is change.  In fact, change is the only constant in the ongoing oscillation of global temperatures…

In addition, on a smaller-based cycle, I would not be surprised to see another ‘post-El Nino’ warming spike in 2016 – a bit like what was seen in the late-1990’s and the early-1980’s (a 17-Year Cycle).  That could help spur a final ‘rally’ in global warming – into the late-2010’s – after 1–2 decades of stagnating temps since the late-1990’s. 

That would also be in synch with the 40-Year Cycle & 80-Year Cycles of the past few centuries (including warm-ups in 1850’s – coming out of Little Ice Age – and in the 1890’s, 1930’s & 1970’s, following a 40-Year period of generally cooling temps from the peaks of the late-1930’s) – both of which portend either a culminating warm-up in the second half of the 2010’s and/or a multi-decade warming peak near 2019/2020.

Prior to the late-1850’s were the late-1810’s and the end of the Dalton Minimum (1820) – a low-point in global temps – and the late-1770’s, another cooling phase w/anecdotal evidence like New York Harbor freezing in 1780 – allowing people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. 

The 1850’s was the transition point when a 40-Year Cycle Progression shifted from low-low-low to the subsequent high (late-1890’s)–high (late-1930’s)–high (late-1970’s)–high (late-2010’s)… a textbook, 40-Year low-low-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – targeted for ~2019/2020…

2019 is also a convergence of sunspot & solar storm cycles (including 30 years from the 1989 storm and 160 years – 4 of the 40-Year Cycles – from the 1859 Carrington Event)… 

From a market perspective, diverse indicators & cycles argue for commodities (& metals) to see an initial surge in 2016 with another surge into 2019–2021. 

That ties into analysis for 2016 to be The Golden Year – the first phase of a bull market in Gold & Silver.  And, 2016/2017 should usher in Dollar troubles.”

INSIIDE Track, December 2015

2-27-19 – “Outlook 2019 – The ~11-Year Cycle

The Sun has at least three intriguing cycles that repeatedly emerge in the markets, in geopolitics, in military conflict, and in most aspects of life.  The biggest (of these three, although there are also longer-term cycles as well) is the ~40-Year Cycle of the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun.

To summarize it, this is the plasma flow that circumvents the Sun, moving from its equator out toward one of the poles and then – after sinking lower – back toward its equator.  It takes approximately 40 years for that to transpire… and then it occurs toward the o pole and back. 

So, a total circuit would take roughly 80 years (perfectly coinciding with the 80-Year Cycle of War that comes back into play in 2021, linked to the US entry into WWII in 1941, into the Civil War in 1861 and out of the Revolutionary War in 1781.  In the colonies, England and Europe, that has been documented for a few hundred years before 1781.).

If I understand the process correctly, the initial phase – flowing from equator to pole – goes along the surface of the Sun and ‘sweeps’ up decaying sunspots and their related magnetivity and then drops them off at the poles. 

As a result, it greatly impacts the magnetic force of the Sun… which impacts subsequent sunspots and the magnetic barrages periodically flung at Earth (CMEs)… which could have an exponentially greater impact as Earth converts to a digital world.

As a result, it would stand to reason that the fluctuations of the Great Conveyor Belt of the Sun dramatically influence the other two primary cycles in this discussion.

To and Away

The second solar-related cycle is the 17-Year Cycle that impacts some form of magnetic interplay between the Sun and Earth (the ‘to and away’ interaction as described by David Junkett at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1005075703810). 

This has also been repeatedly discussed over the past two decades.  It has its strongest impact at the 34-year point (two full cycles), when it coincides with three of the following solar-related cycles…

Cause and Effect

Perhaps the best-known solar cycle is the one that governs the ebb and flow of sunspots or solar storms.  It is an ~11-Year Cycle (averages out to 11.2 years) that has an uncanny knack for also linking monetary and military events of cause and effect.  Perhaps a better way of describing that would be the Cycle of Unintended Consequence.  

Events during one phase of this cycle often have a distinct and irrefutable link to events during the next phase.  In many cases, those phases also link similar players or similar events…

Most recently, the last two phases began with the events of 1997 – 1998 (11 years after the stock market crash of 1987) when the economic world was rocked by a pair of crises – the Asian Financial Crisis and the Russian Ruble Crisis – in 1997 & 1998.

US & Western stock markets were able to mount a final surge before a worldwide stock malaise took hold in 2000 – 2002. 

However, it was 11 years after the events of 1997 – 1998, in 2008 – 2009, when a larger global collapse ensued.

As time has unfolded, it has become clear that the Western financial and economic collapse of 2008/ 2009 drove countries like China & Russia into closer cooperation with one another, as an alternative to the US & Europe (see previous discussions on multiple unions spearheaded by China & Russia). 

This cycle comes back into play in 2019 – 2020 and is likely to perpetuate/foster that alignment…

East vs West

One of the reasons for addressing these synergistic cycles is to highlight the recent phases and how they have timed this dramatic evolution of powerful (antagonistic) competitors to US/Europe. 

First, there was WWII in which the US & USSR fought against Germany and Japan (who had invaded China, loosely aligning China & USSR). 

11 years later, it was the Korean Conflict coming on the heels of the Chinese Civil War.  The US/UN were ultimately pitted against the Soviets and Chinese – a division that is back in vogue now (even as North Korea is in the headlines 66 years after the 1953 ‘end’ to that war).

In the early-1960’s (see 1963 – 1964 phase), the US was pushed to the brink of war with the USSR over the Cuban Missile Crisis (late-’62) a little before the Gulf of Tonkin incident – the escalator of US involvement in Viet Nam.  Ultimately, it was China & the USSR on the side of N. Viet Nam.

The next two phases saw similar events (including those related to Nixon and to the rise of major economic reforms in China) but it wasn’t until the 1997 – 1998 & 2008 – 2009 phases – of this particular ~11-Year Cycle – that economic events pushed both nations to the edge of a financial abyss… and led to the developments in recent years. 

So, what could 2019 – 2020 have in store?  [See table of page 3 for ‘Global Shaping Events’ that have timed stock market panics on a consistent basis, more recently coinciding with China/US struggles.]…

Global Indices

02/28/19 – China’s Shanghai Composite remains in an overall downtrend (from the mid-2015 peak) that could stretch into June/July 2020 – when multi-year cycles converge…” 

INSIIDE Track, March 2019