DJ Transports Project 2 – 4 Week Peak and Correction into March 4 – 8… Feb. 19 – 22 Cycles Could Time (Divergent?) Peak.
DJ Transports Project 2 – 4 Week Peak and Correction into March 4 – 8… Feb. 19 – 22 Cycles Could Time (Divergent?) Peak.
02/20/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: “Stock Indices remain in intermediate uptrends, with all three indexes now fulfilling their 1 – 2 month upside targets as the Nasdaq 100 just attacked 7104 – 7173/ NQH. That range remains decisive and also includes the Dec. 3 high at 7139/NQH.
In all three indexes, those early-Dec. peaks – the perpetuation of 5- & 10-month cycles that should hold for at least two months (so far, they have held for ~2.5 months) – are the equivalent of a ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ resistance, even though a textbook 5-wave decline did not unfold.
That ‘high before the final decline’ (also 25,980/DJIA & 2819/ESH) is pivotal resistance and a rebound target. The DJIA just hit this target, adding another factor that could spur a quick correction.
With all three indexes now fulfilling these 1 – 2 month upside targets, the potential for a 3 – 5 day and possibly 1 – 2 week correction increases…
Reinforcing the potential for a multi-week peak this week is a recurring ~12-week cycle in the DJTA – a cycle that has been ubiquitous in the Transports throughout the past year. The latest phase of an 11 – 12 week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression is Feb. 19 – March 1 and should produce another ~2 – 4 week peak.
A related 78 – 83 day low (Apr. 6) – low (Jun. 28) – high (Sept. 14) – high (Dec. 3) – high (Feb. 19 – 22) Cycle Progression projects an intermediate peak for the current period. A high by/on Feb. 20 would also complete a 50% rebound in time.
There is another factor that does not necessarily project a top now or a correction into next week, BUT would nicely dovetail with that scenario. It involves the weekly 21 MAC, which is still heading downward even though the indexes are trading above that channel.
Based on the corresponding weekly 21 MARCs, the most likely time for those channels to flatten and turn upward would be on March 4 – 15. In a textbook scenario, a market would pull back to retest this support just as the direction of the channel is turning up. So, a 1 – 2 week drop would fit perfect with that indicator. (It could also entail a retest of the year-opening range – the high of which is now resistance turned into support.)
For now, the daily & intra-month trends are up (as well as the weekly & intra-year trends). That will remain the case until, at the very least, daily closes below 25,761/DJIA, 2758.5/ESH & 7029/NQH.”
Stocks remain positive but the DJTA (Transports) – which often leads other indexes by days or weeks – is projecting a Feb. 19 – 22 peak followed by a 2 – 4 week correction. That should last into at least March 4 – 8. This remains in the broader context of equities projected to set 3 – 6 month or 6 – 12 month lows in late-2018 and then see a strong, multi-month rally into May 2019 (weekly cycles pinpoint late-April – early-May ‘19 as ideal period for a peak) – reinforcing 40-Year Cycle parallels.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.