Dollar Confirming Top as Gold Sets New Highs; Silver Remains Corrective.
02-01-25 – “Gold & Silver remain in multi-month trading ranges, ushered in before and after they fulfilled multi-month cycle highs in late-October ’24.
Gold & Silver have congested in different wave structures – a type of divergence that has become the norm in precious metals – with Silver in a more bearish setup as Gold has rallied back to its Oct ’24 high, the upper extreme of its trading range.
Gold did not (yet) produce a daily, weekly or monthly close above 2846.6/GCJ – its late-October high – so congestion remains intact.
The late-Oct ’24 cycle high included an uncanny ~12.5 month/~54-week high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression that was expected to usher in a multi-month top while – at the same time – projecting a future peak for Oct/Nov 2025.
The midpoint of that cycle – a 27 – 28-week cycle – projects an intervening Gold peak for the first half of May 2025, the fulfillment of a ~28-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. That remains the outlook for the coming months.
Gold was not originally expected to reach new highs this soon but re-entered its weekly uptrend on January 17th and quickly broke above its ~2-month trading range in the subsequent days… ultimately leading to the recent spike high.
In contrast, Silver rebounded about 50% of its Oct – Dec decline and just spiked up to its flattening weekly 21 High MAC before retreating… Silver rallied without neutralizing its weekly downtrend. As a result, there is a growing chance – depending on the extent of a new (expected) decline – that Silver’s overall correction could equal the duration of the 2023 decline by stretching into March 2025, correcting the overall ~12-month (Oct ’23 – Oct ’24) 5-wave advance.
That is also why, from a wave perspective, Silver should ultimately make it back down to its early-August ’24 low – the 4th wave of lesser degree support near 27.00/SIH. That is also where the March ’22 peak exists – a key level of resistance turned into support.
From a wave perspective, Gold was initially forecast to drop to 2550/GC and Silver to ~28.50/SI. Gold made it to 2541/GCZ in the Dec ‘24 contract (2565/GCG in the Feb contract) as Silver dropped to 29.14/SIH.”
Gold, Silver & XAU remain divergent as Gold reinforces its multi-month & multi-year uptrend while Silver rebounds in a broader correction from its Oct ’24 peak. Gold broke out to new highs, confirming its mid-Nov ’24 low and the outlook for higher prices into April/May ‘25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
Its mid-November ’24 low created a third successive (higher) low and signaled the onset of a new 3 – 6 month advance that could stretch into early-May ‘25. The Dollar rallied into January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and setting the stage for a major decline in 2025… starting now. See current publications for the most updated analysis.
INSIIDE Track Trading – Subscriptions Order Page
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.