Dollar & Interest Rate Cycles Bottoming as Bitcoin & Ether Peaking!
12/26/23 – “The Dollar Index set its lowest daily close (since early-August) on December 26th, initially fulfilling the latest phase of its ~4-week cycle and the reinforcing ~24-week low-low-low-(low; Dec 26 – 29, ’23) Cycle Progression that portends an impending bottom.
This is also the second week after the Dollar Index tested and held its weekly HLS, an indicator that projects a 1 – 2 month low in the ensuing week(s). The Dollar Index is also completing a 5-wave decline, which would likely be followed by a rebound to its 4th wave of lesser degree resistance near [reserved for subscribers]…
The next three days could have a decisive impact on longer-term factors that have been progressively turning down in the Dollar Index. One of those involves the Dollar’s monthly 21 MAC. If it closes below that average on Dec 29th (102.40/DXH), it would be the first time to do that since July/Aug ’21.
December ’23 begins a sharp surge in the monthly 21 MARC, which is inversely correlated to the monthly 21 MAC. As a result, that 21 MAC will have a much easier time turning down in the coming months.
The Euro has rallied for longer than it sold off, only recovering about .618 of the magnitude of that previous decline – a sign of [reserved for subscribers]…
On an intermediate basis, the Euro is moving through a weekly 21 MAC transition that could set the stage for a future rally (after an intermediate correction).
The Euro closed above its weekly 21 High MAC in recent weeks. If it can turn the direction of that average up, in the coming weeks, the Euro would complete that bullish sequence and further confirm the October low.
One other pivotal level could come into play at month end. It is the Dec 15th weekly close at 1.0942/ECH. That is currently the weekly ‘2nd Close Support’ – the level the Euro would need to close below – on December 29th – to generate a weekly 2 Close Reversal lower.
It is doubly significant because the Euro closed at 1.0942/ECH on December 31, 2022.
So, that is where the March ’24 Euro is considered up or down for the year in 2023.
If the Euro closes above 1.0942/ECH on Dec 29th, it would provide new signs of longer-term recovery.
The Yen is consolidating below its Dec 7th & 14th highs and could see another 3 – 5 day sell-off before [reserved for subscribers]…
Bitcoin & Ether fulfilled projections for rallies into Dec 8 – 15, ’23, the perpetuation of 36 – 38-week high-high-high-(high) & ~13-week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progressions. At the time, Bitcoin attacked its multi-month upside target – at ~45,000/BT (see Oct., Nov. & Dec. ’23 INSIIDE Tracks) while Ether fulfilled related targets at 2,350 – 2,450/ETH. That has set the stage for a 1 – 2 month top…
Gold & Silver have congested since spiking to new highs on Dec 4th – when Gold fulfilled its upside wave target at 2152/GCG (high was 2152.3/GCG) – and set what would likely be multi-week highs.
During the ensuing sell-off, Gold dropped right to its weekly HLS and held, setting the stage for a low last week – surrounding mid-month. That low came as Gold was spiking below and reversing higher from its ascending weekly 21 High MAC, while fulfilling a ~5-week high-high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
Gold triggered an outside-day/2 Close Reversal buy signal at 1997.3/GCG and has moved steadily higher ever since.
In the short-term, Gold & Silver [reserved for subscribers]…
Platinum continues to move higher and could see a surge to 1060/PLJ or higher in the coming week(s) as it emerges from a ~5-month bottoming process and prepares for a new advance into May/June 2024.
It triggered a new multi-week buy signal on December 7/8th and then closed the past two weeks above its weekly 21 High MAC for the first time since May ’23. Last week, it also turned the direction of its 21 MAC (High & Low) up, reinforcing a multi-month shift.
Platinum is currently testing its July – September ’23 highs – at 1004.2 – 1013.9/PLJ – and needs to close above that range to show increased strength on an intermediate basis.
1 – 4 week & 1 – 3 month traders could have entered long positions in April ’24 Platinum futures at 921 – 928.0/PLJ and be holding these w/avg. open gains of about $3,500/contract. Move trailing sell stops to [reserved for subscribers; TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]…
The XAU & HUI remain on track for a 4Q ‘23 rally to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI… and potentially higher.”
Bitcoin & Ether have fulfilled analysis for major advances from their Nov ’22 lows (projected multi-year lows) into late-2023/early-2024. Bitcoin’s September buy signals projected a 1 – 2 month surge to ~35,000 (already fulfilled) and a larger 3 – 6 month advance to ~45,000+/BT (recently fulfilled). Ether has also fulfilled projections for a 3 – 6 month advance to 2,350 – 2,450/ETH… ushering in a multi-week topping process as Dollar cycles bottom (December 27/28th).
Since July, cryptos have been expected to work higher into (at least) December ’23 as the Dollar declines. That could culminate in late-December when Dollar cycles (and near-term interest rate cycles) bottom. Gold analysis corroborates with Gold surging to its multi-month upside target (~2152/GCG) and peaking during December 4th cycle peak. The Dollar is fulfilling projections for a final spike down into year-end, before a more significant bottom takes hold.
Platinum is validating the outlook for a substantial surge, triggering a pair of buy signals on December 7th/8th and confirming them in preparation for an accelerated advance.
Will Dollar Set Decisive Low in Late-December ‘23?
Are Bitcoin & Ether Beginning a Pivotal Topping Process?
How Low Could Cryptos Correct… and the Dollar Rally… in January ‘24??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.