Dollar & Interest Rates Could Spur Bitcoin & Ether Top in Late-December!

12/19/23 – “The Dollar Index resumed its decline after testing & holding its weekly LHR (103.82/DXH) and descending daily 21 High MAC last week, projecting a new sell-off into the next phase of its ~4-week cycle in late-Dec ’23.

That is also when a ~24-week low-low-low-(low; Dec 26 – 29, ’23) Cycle Progression would mature.  Corroborating that, the Dollar Index just tested and held its weekly HLS (102.18/DXH), portending a 1 – 2 month low in the ensuing 1 – 2 weeks.

That should also be a decisive time with regard to the Dollar’s monthly 21 MAC.  If it closes below that average on Dec 29th (102.40/DXH), it would be the first time to do that since July/Aug ’21.  December ’23 begins a sharp surge in the monthly 21 MARC, which is inversely correlated to the monthly 21 MAC.  As a result, that 21 MAC will have a much easier time turning down in the coming months.

It would not be surprising if the next multi-month sell-off in the Dollar Index coincides with another (future) move higher in Bonds – signaling a drop in interest rates that detracts from the Dollar’s appeal.  Watch 1Q 2024.

The Euro surged back toward its recent high, testing and holding its weekly LHR in the process.  That projects a peak in the subsequent week(s), though additional upside could be seen first.  If it sets new rebound highs in the coming day(s), the Euro will have rallied for as long as it sold off.

It is moving through a weekly 21 MAC transition that could corroborate its positive weekly trend action…

The Euro entered the weekly 21 MAC in mid-November, rallied and briefly closed above it, and then retraced back to the descending weekly 21 Low MAC – closing 1 tick above it on Dec 8th.  That spurred a new rally this week with the Euro closing above its weekly 21 High MAC.

If it can turn the direction of that average up, in the coming weeks, the Euro would complete that bullish sequence and further confirm the October low… Other weekly indicators (21 High MAC, etc.) could corroborate.

The Yen surged again, after retracing 50% of its initial advance, and fulfilled cycle expectations for a mid-December peak.  Some consolidation should follow.  On balance, it is expected to rally into [reserved for subscribers]…

Bitcoin & Ether fulfilled projections for rallies into Dec 8 – 15, ’23, the perpetuation of 36 – 38-week high-high-high-(high) & ~13-week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progressions.  Bitcoin attacked its multi-month upside target – at ~45,000/BT (see Oct., Nov. & Dec. ’23 INSIIDE Tracks) while Ether fulfilled related targets at 2,350 – 2,450/ETH…

Gold & Silver are closely adhering to their 4Q 2023 outlook.  They sold off sharply after precisely fulfilling upside projections, spiking to new highs on Dec 4th – with Gold perfectly fulfilling its upside wave target at 2152/GCG (high was 2152.3/GCG) – and setting what would likely be multi-week highs (while simultaneously reinforcing projections for future January ’24 peaks).

During the ensuing sell-off, Gold dropped right to its weekly HLS and held, setting the stage for a low this past week (the inverse to how the Nov 27 – Dec 1 signaled a spike high on December 4th) which became more likely when Gold dropped right to monthly support and held after retracing 50% of its October – December rally.

That low came as Gold was spiking below and reversing higher from its ascending weekly 21 High MAC.  It triggered an outside-day/2 Close Reversal buy signal at 1997.3/GCG – signaling that a 1 – 2 week low had taken hold – and surged on Fed news about future interest rate cuts.

However, they would not confirm their December 13th lows (that perpetuated a ~30-day cycle that timed previous lows on Sept 13/14 & Nov 13) until daily closes above xxxx/GCG & xx.xx/SIH…

The XAU & HUI remains on track for a 4Q ‘23 rally to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI… and potentially higher… The XAU & HUI perpetuated a ~5-week high-low-low-(low; Dec 11 – 15, 23) Cycle Progression and reversed higher, reinforcing the outlook for a continued advance into December 18 – 20… and potentially longer.

Platinum & Palladium are also confirming lows with Platinum poised to spur a quick surge to 1060/PLJ or higher as it emerges from a ~5-month bottoming process and prepares for a new advance into May/June 2024.  It triggered a new multi-week buy signal on December 7/8th (see Weekly Re-Lay) and then closed last week above its weekly 21 High MAC for the first time since May ’23 and is poised to turn the direction of that MAC up.

Its inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC began a 5-week decline (last week), increasing the odds the 21 MAC will turn positive soon.  Along with daily trend & 21 MAC action this past week, Platinum initially validated its December 7/8th buy signal and should spur another surge into late-Dec.

Daily cycles next converge on December 26 – 28th and could/should time a future high.”

 

Bitcoin & Ether are fulfilling analysis for major advances from their Nov ’22 lows (projected multi-year lows) into late-2023/early-2024.  Bitcoin’s September buy signals projected a 1 – 2 month surge to ~35,000 (already fulfilled) and a larger 3 – 6 month advance to ~45,000+/BT (recently fulfilled).  Ether has also fulfilled projections for a 3 – 6 month advance to 2,350 – 2,450/ETH… ushering in what will likely be a multi-week topping process as Dollar cycles bottom (December 27/28th).

Since July, cryptos have been expected to work higher into (at least) December ’23 as the Dollar declines.  That could culminate in late-December when Dollar cycles bottom.  Gold analysis corroborates with Gold recently surging to its multi-month upside target (~2152/GCG) and peaking while the Dollar is projecting a final drop into year-end, before a more significant bottom is forecast to take hold.

Platinum is the latest market to prepare for a substantial surge, triggering a pair of buy signals on December 7th/8th and beginning to validate them in preparation for an accelerated advance.

 

Will Dollar Set Decisive Low in Late-December ‘23?

Are Bitcoin & Ether Beginning a Pivotal Topping Process?

How Low Could Cryptos Correct… and the Dollar Rally… in January ‘24??

   

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.