Dollar Outlook Corroborates Energy Analysis;
Dollar Outlook Corroborates Energy Analysis;
Projected Gold Surge Reinforces Oil…
Advance into January 2018 Likely!
12/27/17 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – XAU Leading ‘Shift’; Is Larger Advance Likely?:
“A small shift took place in the ‘currency’ arena, as 2017’s ‘anti-Dollar’ leader (Bitcoin) took a breather while Gold & Silver showed signs of coming back to life. The patient veteran waited until the over-active rookie exhausted itself – and then stepped into the void.
The big question is whether this is a temporary anomaly – relative to what transpired during most of 2017 – or another transition in the making…
The Dollar Index turned its daily trend down, re-affirming the overall outlook and the likelihood for renewed selling, late-year.
It would have to drop below 92.15/DXH in the coming days to turn the weekly 21 MAC down and signal new weakness. (In the coming weeks, the weekly 21 MARC rallies – making it easier for the corresponding weekly 21 MAC to turn back down.)
That would also have the Dollar violating the synergy of support & key indicators around 92.25/DXH – and signaling an Intra-month Inverted V Reversal lower in the process. On a short-term cycle basis, there is a chance for an initial low now – the latest phase of a 30-degree high-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
The Euro is the inverse, needing a weekly close above 1.2026/ECH to reverse its weekly trend up. That could occur as part of a rally into early-January. A peak in early-January would fulfill multiple cycles while adding 2-month & 4-month cycle reinforcement to the overall outlook for an advance (from Jan. ’17) into May ’18…
Gold & Silver have rallied after dropping into the first half of Dec. – the same time that Gold bottomed in 2015 & 2016, perpetuating an annual/360-degree cycle.
That potential was/is reinforced by diverse indicators – including the weekly trend patterns & the weekly HLS – and was corroborated as Gold bottomed just above year-opening support. Both metals turned their daily trends up, giving the first sign of an intermediate bottom.
Weekly closes above 1281.0/GCG & 16.470/SIH would elevate this rally to the next higher degree. The monthly closes are also shaping up with some intriguing potential…
If Gold can give a monthly close above 1276.7/GCG & Silver give a monthly close above 16.790/SIH, they would generate monthly 2 Close Reversals higher.
On an intermediate basis, Gold has the next phase of an ongoing 18 – 21 week cycle – that could produce a multi-week peak – coming into play between [reserved for subscribers only]
On an intermediate basis, Silver could also still set an important high in xxxx…
Based on wave comparisons & its recurring 2.50 point range, Silver could make it back up to [see latest Weekly Re-Lay publications for specific outlook for Gold & Silver, including upside targets in price AND time]…
The XAU has continued to surge since fulfilling its 2 – 3 month outlook & 6 – 12 month outlook by dropping to new multi-month lows in Dec. 2017. That recent low perpetuates an 11 – 12 month low-low-low Cycle Progression and was set while the XAU was testing & holding extreme support at 75.77/XAU.
It also fulfilled a 21 – 22 week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression originating from the early-Feb. intra-year peak and projecting a bottom in the first half of Dec.
Throughout 2017, the XAU has traded in a wide trading range – creating a type of ‘a-b-c’ decline from the early-Feb. high (Feb. ’17 high – July ’17 low – Sept. ’17 high – Dec. ’17 low), in which the ‘c’ wave decline nearly matched the magnitude of the preceding ‘a’ wave decline.
While that ~10-month corrective wave was unfolding, the XAU showed some developing resilience that needed to wait until negative cycles had played out. Each decline (bottoming in mid-March, May, July & Dec.) produced a retest of support (& brief spike low it) with very little downside follow-through.
As soon as weekly & monthly cycles matured, in early-Dec., that took the pressure off Gold stocks and allowed them to initially validate those signs of a slowly developing (secondary) bottom – quickly triggering a multi-week buy signal on Dec. 11/12.
That has allowed the XAU to surge to weekly 21 MARC resistance that comes into play at 86.08/XAU this week. Combined with cyclic factors, that could produce a brief peak in this time frame (Dec. 27/28).
Intermediate (2 – 4 week & 1 – 3 month) traders could have entered Gold stocks or related instruments two weeks ago and can now risk [reserved for subscribers only; TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK]…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have resumed their uptrends, reinforcing expectations for Heating Oil to rally into monthly & yearly cycles converging in Jan. 2018.
Crude is testing monthly resistance but could surge to its weekly LHR – at 60.91/CLG – this week. On a 1 – 2 week basis, several wave & LLH calculations project a rally to ~62.00/CLG.
Crude maintains the potential to set its next multi-month low in late-Jan./early-Feb – the latest phase of a consistent 31 – 32 week cycle.
Natural Gas remains weak & has attacked 12 – 18 month support at the continuous-contract lows set in Aug. ’16, Nov. ’16 & Feb. ’17 – all around 2.500/NG.”
Dollar weakness & Gold strength reinforcing overall Energy outlook for ~6-month advance into January 2018, triggered by mid-year buy signals in Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil. Natural Gas is attacking major support, from which a rally could emerge. Outlook remains for late-2017 into Feb. 2018 rally in Natural Gas.
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