Dollar Reaffirms 1 – 2 Year Decline
Dollar Reaffirms 1 – 2 Year Decline;
Currency Wars Raging; Gold Leading.
Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure.
01/20/18 Weekly Re-Lay:
“The Dollar Index remains bearish and on track for an overall decline into May 2018. It began 2018 with renewed selling, ultimately resulting in a weekly close below the Sept. low. That confirms what is now a 12+-month downtrend & increases the potential for additional downside…
The Yen saw a volatile week, ultimately gaining ground and turning its weekly trend up. That came in the week after it tested & held its weekly LHR – a pattern that usually precedes an intermediate peak by 1 – 3 weeks. The weekly trend reversal generates similar expectations.
Combined with a 20-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression, the Yen could set a 2 – 4 week peak on Jan. 22 – 26 and then re-enter some consolidation. Looking out a little further, early-March represents the next phase of a very consistent 8 – 9 week (~60 degree/~2 month) cycle that has governed the Yen since Nov. 2016…
Gold & Silver have surged since bottoming in the first half of Dec. and fulfilling multiple (yearly, monthly & weekly) cycle lows. Gold has turned its weekly trend up while Silver still needs a weekly close above [reserved for subscribers] to do the same…
Currency War Update: Bitcoin dropped into Jan. 16/17, 2018 – bottoming exactly 180 degrees (6 months) from the July 16/17, 2017 low while fulfilling many other cycles & downside wave-timing projections and perpetuating a related, ~180-degree low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
In doing so, Bitcoin also fulfilled the downside price projections for a textbook ‘A-B-C’ correction from its mid-Dec. peak – in which the ‘C’ wave decline would match the magnitude of the ‘A’ wave decline (Dec. 16 – Dec. 30) at ~9,400, coinciding with its 50% downside target at ~9,600.
That low also had Bitcoin perpetuating a ~4-month/~120-degree cycle – the same cycle that has prevailed in precious metals for 3 – 4 years. It created a ~4-month low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression – linked to the May 15/16 & Sept. 14 lows – that was also fulfilled with its Jan. 16/17 low.
At the very least, a rebound to xx,xxx [reserved for subscribers] is likely in the short term.”
The Dollar has dropped to new lows (since peaking in early-2017), reinforcing its evolving sell-off as Gold has surged since fulfilling cycle lows in early-Dec. Both are providing strong validation to the outlook for Dec. 2017 – May 2018… and beyond. The Yen is corroborating that and projecting a final rally in the coming week. Stock market cycles & action, showing signs of a blow-off, could be another factor in this overall equation.
The Currency Wars rage on as Bitcoin has dropped farther – reinforcing that (at least) a multi-month peak took hold in Dec. 2017 – the precise fulfillment of its wave-timing upside objective. Bitcoin has just tested its 2 – 4 week downside target & could see a brief bounce to near-term resistance. An ultimate break below 9,400 would confirm the broader outlook and increase the potential for an overall decline to ~5,500. The Dollar maintains the potential for a late-Jan./early-Feb. bounce that could add downside pressure to ‘anti-Dollar’ instruments.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.