Eerie Parallels Mounting; Bitcoin (Projected) Jan/Feb ’26 Plunge Could Be Trigger!
12-01-25 – “Stock Indices remain in overall uptrends that could stretch, in some indexes, into 1Q 2026. They were expected to see a series of highs in late-July, late-Sept & late-Nov ’25 with a final high potentially stretching into (late-) January ’26.
That series of highs was/is expected to create divergent peaks – with one or more indexes spiking to new intra-year/all-time highs even as one or more indexes set lower highs… much like the late-’24 & early-’25 series of highs played out.
Nov/Dec ‘25 has been projected to time the initial shift in several markets, including stock indexes.
Eerie Parallels
An intriguing parallel continues to play out in these markets. It involves a type of ‘tail wagging the dog’ scenario where something that should not have an oversized impact… suddenly does.
In late-2024 and throughout 2025, INSIIDE Track & the Weekly Re-Lay have been discussing this issue and warning about a potential validation of it near the end of 2025 and then in 2026. That is where we now find ourselves.
This is likely to be merely an initial validation with 1Q 2026 possessing a greater probability for fulfillment during a vulnerable (future) cyclic period.
The parallel involves a perceived similarity between the 1920’s, the 1990’s & the 2020’s – dealing with derivatives that took on a life of their own due to unrestrained and unbridled speculation.
In each case, the biggest part of the problem has to do with proportionality… the time percentage of an overall bull market during which the majority of speculators enter a given ‘bubble’.
The first 60 – 70% of a move (in time) is when a smaller percentage of (more savvy) participants are involved in this trend… even as price is steadily (stealthily?) rising.
The next 10 – 20% is when late-coming money managers – and others chasing the latest ‘hot money investment’ (for lack of a better term) – begin to pile into that market, accelerating its upward price movement in the early stages of a parabola.
The final 10 – 20% is when the desperate & emotional speculators (and meme traders) dive into that market & start talking up a never-ending, no-ceiling rally unfolding. Of course, they have to say and believe that: Otherwise, they must acknowledge they missed the first 80 – 90% of the move.
The disproportionate majority of participants have a much lower threshold for financial pain since a 15 – 20% correction could erase all of their gains.
And that is where the dominos start to fall.
When their panic selling drives the price of an ‘investment’ down another 5 – 10%, it places another large percentage of participants into the red… and the selling accelerates.
In this case, the threat is not just to cryptos and all their assorted derivatives.
When major corporations are parlaying their profits into crypto purchases, it places both at risk – their crypto holdings AND their core business. The more things change…
To put this in clearer perspective, let’s take a look at 7 of the top 10 cryptos & where they have traded in 4Q 2025 – the time that was identified (in late-’24/early-’25) for a major shift and shakeup:
- Bitcoin dropped ~36% in Oct/Nov ’25 – the most resilient of all cryptos.
- Ether dropped ~47% in Aug – Nov ’25.
- XRP dropped 55% in July – Oct ’25.
- Solana dropped ~52% in Sept – Nov ’25 (~50% in Jan – Nov ’25).
- BNB dropped ~41% in Oct/Nov ’25.
- Doge dropped ~80% in Dec ’24 – Oct ’25.
- Tronix dropped ~27% in Aug – Nov ’25 (~39% in Dec ’24 – Nov ’25).
Add to this the reality that 2025 has seen a massive influx of crypto buying on various anticipated factors (many of which have not materialized). That means a high proportion of participants have entered these markets in just the past ~12 months. They may not be feeling too much pain yet… but additional selling still appears as a high probability.
At what point will this selling hit the ‘point of critical mass’ and trigger a sell-off that just feeds on itself and accelerates lower?
At what point, if that occurs, will crypto losses start to complicate the balance sheets of corporations that decided they should become their own crypto ETFs instead of focusing on core business?
In the 1920’s, it was the forerunner to the modern-day ETF – with shell companies purchasing shares of expensive stocks (often on margin and always at already-elevated prices) and then issuing shares so that ‘Joe Public’ could afford to ‘play the market’.
In the 1990’s, it was ‘dot-com’ companies – often created out of thin air and with no completed product (or anything tangible, not even in the digital world) but allowing ‘Joe Public’ to speculate like the big boys and risk their entire retirement on hopes and dreams (FOMO).
In the 2020’s, it has been cryptocurrency, and crypto-derivatives, and then NFTs and memes and whatever else allows Joe Public to speculate with reckless abandon on the promises that a digital trading card or token is the key to eternal riches.
In each case, those derivative markets take on an oversized impact and importance due to a perilous combination of factors, including leverage, point of entry, & liquidity. The result is usually not pretty.
If ongoing INSIIDE Track analysis – for Bitcoin to peak in 2025 (initially in July ’25 and then finally in 4Q ’25) and suffer a serious downturn in Nov/Dec 2025… and another plunge in 2026 – continues to be validated, it could be a big problem.
Two things should be continually reiterated.
First, a sharp drop from an extremely overbought peak does not mean that vehicle (in this case, cryptos) will disappear. Tech companies didn’t disappear after the dot-com bust.
Second is that cycles rhyme, they don’t (exactly) repeat. The current situation will not unfold (or unravel) in the same way as predecessors. So, don’t look for an exact replica.
2026 in Focus
The broader equity outlook still anticipates another substantial decline in 2026 – potentially a second fulfillment of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines. The initial fulfillment – of forecasts for a late-’25 meltdown in cryptos – is reinforcing that outlook.
Another validation could/would come if a little of the ‘froth’ starts to disappear from AI stocks. As stated in recent months, there were/are two factors that could create a domino-effect of selling at some point in 2026 (maybe early 2026)
- Currently, 10 stocks account for over 40% of the gains in the overall market… similar to several equity peaks in the past decade. Most are tech/AI-oriented stocks.
- The new ‘Roaring ‘20’s’ have been characterized by exponentially-leveraged speculation on Bitcoin & other cryptos… with some of these tech/AI companies committing a significant portion of capital into cryptos (instead of their core business).
The latter of those is already unfolding, exactly when projected. (MSTR has been the poster child and continues to drop toward its 4th wave of lesser degree downside target near 100.)
The former might be just around the corner…
Bitcoin & Ether are fulfilling ongoing analysis for sharp declines in the final months of 2025.
Another crypto that has traded with some consistency and predictability is XRP. As a result, it is providing some additional clues as to what to expect from digital currency in 2026. Its mid-July ‘25 peak completed a ~1-year (360-degree cycle) 5-wave advance and reinforced the myriad of crypto and crypto stock cycles that peaked in July ‘25.
That top projected a subsequent ~6-month decline (50% of its ~12-month advance and the convergence of a number of corroborating cycles & Cycle Progressions) into January 2026.
XRP quickly plummeted into mid-Oct ‘25 – a ~3-month/ ~90-degree plunge that projects a future low in mid-January ‘26… ~3 months/~90 degrees later.
Reinforcing that, a consistent ~9-month/38 – 40-week low (Jan ‘23) – low (Oct ‘23) – low (July ‘24) – low (April ‘25) – (low; mid-Jan ‘26) Cycle Sequence concurs – portending a multi-month low to take hold in the first half of January ‘26. A precise 50% retracement in time – 54-week rally followed by 27-week decline – could stretch that to Jan 19 – 23, ‘26.
XRP dropped right to its 4th wave of lesser degree support (April ‘25 low near 1.600) in mid-Oct so that support is pivotal the next 1 – 2 months.“
Bitcoin & cryptos fulfilled early-October sell signals and projections for sharp declines into Nov 17 – 21, ’25 (and to ~80,000/BT) – when an initial multi-week low was expected. This action reinforces the focus on 1Q ’26 (after stock index cycles peak in late-Jan ’26) for a more convincing plunge in cryptos… and then tech stocks in Feb and/or March ‘26.
In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of ‘eerie parallels’ that should spur an initial drop in crypto prices in 4Q 2025 and then a second drop in 1Q ’26 – all leading into a unique monthly Cycle Progression low in 2Q ‘26. ~70K is the next (minimum) downside target… after bounce to ~97K.
The initial plunge in Bitcoin was projected to be an omen of what is likely to follow in late-Jan/early-Feb ’26 – in line with stock index 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions. One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle reverses:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Why Does Nov ‘25 Bitcoin & Stock Index Sell-off Portend Feb. ’26 Plunge?
Will ‘Eerie Parallels’ Emerge in Feb/March ’26… in Sync with Analysis?
What is Seismic Shift Projected for 4Q 2025/1Q 2026?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.