Energy/Equity Connection Validating Sept. ’18 Crude Oil Cycle Highs
Energy/Equity Connection Validating Sept. ’18 Crude Oil Cycle Highs.
10/13/18 Weekly Re-Lay: “Stock Indices plunged during the first two weeks of October, perfectly fulfilling a consistent 2-Year Cycle that projected 8 – 10% declines during this period. The Nasdaq 100 spiked down to several key levels while initially turning some key indicators down. It would take a weekly close below 6907/NQZ, however, to turn the weekly trend down and generate a more convincing sign of a 3 – 6 month peak…
Stock Indices plunged after all three triggered outside-week/2 Close Reversal sell signals on Oct. 5 – projecting acceleration to the downside this past week. That increased the likelihood for a sharp drop in the first two weeks of October – similar to to early-2018 and several previous 2 – 4 week declines.
The Nasdaq 100 plunged to critical support and extreme downside targets, including its weekly HLS at 7008/NQZ. To provide a more significant reversal signal, the Nasdaq 100 needed to drop below its weekly 21 Low MARC and turn its weekly 21 Low MAC down. That level was at 6917/NQZ. It dropped to 6907/NQZ, turning that channel down.
Another larger-magnitude peak would be signaled if/when the current decline exceeded the magnitude of the previous declines (Jan/Feb & Mar. ’18). The March ’18 drop saw that index declining from 7216 to 6398/NQZ – a total drop of 818 points. With the latest peak coming at 7728/NQZ, the NQ-100 needed to drop 819 points to trigger a decisive 4-Shadow Signal. That meant it needed to make it down to 6909/NQZ. It plunged to 6907/NQZ!
At the same time, the DJIA attacked weekly 21 High MARC support (24,994) and 2 – 3 month support at 24,965. The S+P approached weekly 21 MARC support and intra-year trend support coming into play around 2700/ESZ
By dropping 8 – 10% during the first two weeks of October, equities have fulfilled the primary downside objective for this time frame, paralleling what was previously seen in 2008, 2012, 2014 & 2016 – the recurrence of an uncanny 2-Year Cycle. The next few days should indicate if more downside potential remains in October…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil dropped sharply (along with equities) after Crude re-attacked and held the 2018 primary upside target up to 77.30/CL. Crude nearly reached monthly support while testing previous highs, so a 1 – 2 week bottom could take hold near recent lows.
Natural Gas has pulled back after surging into the middle third of October but not quite reaching its monthly LHR. It could spike as low as 3.1000 – 3.1500/NGZ before a near-term bottom takes hold.”
Energy & Equity markets have experienced initial sell-offs, fulfilling the potential for Oct. 1 – 12. Brief rebounds are now possible before over-arching bearish cycles kick in. Crude is powerfully fulfilling multi-month & multi-year cycles that projected a significant peak in/around Sept. 2018 (coinciding with Middle East cycles that project a major shift surrounding late-Sept. ’18).
Natural Gas, in stark contrast, was projected to see an initial rally into mid-Oct. and a larger overall advance into mid-to-late-Dec. ’18. October 2018 is validating serious trouble for both Energy & Equity markets – in precise lockstep with cycles and analysis that have been discussed since 2017.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.