Energy Markets & XOI Portend April 10 – 14, ’23 Peak; 3Q ’23 = Bullish Period
04-05-23 Alert – Energy & Equity: The Three-Way Correlation “A recurring topic of discussion involves the sometimes -close correlation between the movement of equity markets and energy markets. Sometimes that is merely a reflection of a growing economy (spurring demand for both) or some other factor spurring both of them higher. Occasionally, it is one driving the other – a true ‘correlation’… at least for that moment in time.
Even though trading off inter-market correlations is never advised (on its own), there are often times when cycles and price action/expectations in one can clarify cycles and expectations in the other. One of those times could be close at hand… and relies on analysis in a combination of the two – energy and equities – the XOI Index (Oil & Gas Stock Index).
The XOI has been adhering very closely to the outlook for late-2022/early-2023 and is nearing the time frame when a secondary high was/is most likely. To reiterate from the March 17, 2023 issue of The Bridge – Crude, Natural Gas & the XOI Index: [reserved for subscribers]…
The XOI – as well as Energy markets and key stock indexes – are all set up for intermediate highs during or surrounding the week of April 10 – 14, ’23. Among other things, that would fulfill the potential for convincing 2 – 4 week trends during the first ‘month’ of the Natural Year – from the vernal equinox (March 20) into the Date of Aggresssion (April 19). The highs set in the coming week(s) should be pivotal for many months to follow…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil are fulfilling analysis for a rally into late-March/early-April ‘23 – the convergence of a myriad of weekly cycles as well as a ~10-month low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression. Since its peak, Crude’s most consistent cycle has been an ~11-week cycle that timed successive highs in June, Aug & Nov ’22 and then Jan ’23.
Along with other cycles (including overlapping 22-week & ~44-week cycles), this ~11-week Cycle Progression has been showing it should generate one more high in this sequence – ideally on April 6 – 14, ’23.
That is in perfect sync with a related 74 – 77-day high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the XOI Index, which has been projecting a secondary peak for April 10 – 14, ’23 (April 10/11 = greatest synergy) as part of its overall topping process described for several months.
Crude has tested 80 – 81.00/CLM – its multi-week upside target – on the heels of OPEC’s April 2 output cut announcement and could set a peak at any point in the next 7 – 9 days.”
Energy markets are moving through a pivotal bottoming phase – based on cycles and price indicators – when a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom has been expected. That could/should prompt an overall rally into 3Q ’23 (Sept ’23 = ideal time) – when multiple, long-term cycles collide. An initial rally has unfolded and projects an intermediate high on April 10 – 14, ’23… that would subsequently project an intermediate low for late-June ’23.
The March 17, 2023 issue of The Bridge – Crude, Natural Gas & the XOI Index details key factors to monitor as energy markets head into cycle lows (Natural Gas cycles do not bottom until June ’23) and begin to embark on new advances… that should accelerate into Aug/Sept ’23.
Does this Have Anything to Do with Geopolitical Factors?
When & Where Will Be the Best Place to Enter Long Positions?
How Does This Correlate to Inflation & Interest Rate Analysis?
Refer to the March 17, 2023 issue of The Bridge – Crude, Natural Gas & the XOI Index (FREE with any Weekly Re-Lay subscription of 1 month or longer) for expanded analysis that addresses key aspects of the 2023 outlook for energy markets.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.