Ether Leading Bitcoin Reversal; Rally into early-Nov ’22 Likely.
09/28/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Though it is not a market that is regularly covered in our publications, Ether is providing some textbook examples of proper wave structure… in particular, the attributes of textbook corrective waves. In many cases like this, I monitor markets like this (and similar structure in a host of blockchain-related stocks) as a proxy or a corroborating factor for Bitcoin.
They are NOT always going to move in tandem during short periods of time or during congested markets BUT they will give early-warning signs when a significant shift or trend change is unfolding. That appears to be the case in this crypto arena, which is initially validating 10 months’ worth of analysis – all stating that Bitcoin should plunge into Sept ’22 before a bottom would be likely.
Ether has provided multiple examples of the same type of corrective wave structure… but on different magnitudes and even in different directions. First, let’s discuss the one illustrated above:
In June ‘22, Ether reached and spiked below its major downside target. That is where it also retraced .786 (2nd Degree Golden Ratio… see Tech Tip Reference Library) of its overall 2019 – 2021 advance. Several factors were arguing for a multi-month bottom.
More importantly, it was where Ether completed a textbook ‘A-B-C’ zig-zag correction in which the ‘C’ wave was precisely the same magnitude as the ‘A’ wave AND the ‘C’ wave was precisely the same duration as the ‘a’ wave.
Ether (ETH/USD) dropped for 11 weeks (75 days) and lost 2702 points in Nov ‘21 – Jan ‘22 – its ‘A’ wave decline.
It then rallied (for almost the same amount of time) into early-April – setting its ‘B’ wave peak.
Ether (ETH/USD) then dropped (again) for 11 weeks (77 days) and lost 2697 points in April – June ‘22 – its ‘C’ wave decline.
It does not get much more precise than that!
In addition, Ether bottomed just above its Jan ‘21 low – a major level of 1 – 2 year support – keeping the entire decline within the confines of the 2021 trading range (an inside year, where high is lower than previous year’s high and low is higher than previous year’s low).
Ether bottomed near 900/ETH and initially rallied right back to its late-May high – the 4th wave of lesser degree (resistance) on the way down. In the process, it turned its weekly trend up – signaling that this was only an initial advance that should be followed by a multi-week reactive sell-off and then an advance to higher highs.
The ensuing correction – a ‘2’ or ‘b’ wave decline – has unfolded in almost the exact same manner on one lesser degree (of wave).
Ether dropped for ~2 weeks and about 570/ETH points. It then rallied for the same amount of time, rebounding .618 of that first drop.
Ether then (again) dropped for ~2 weeks and about 570/ETH points – fulfilling what appears to be a lower-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ decline – while retracing .618 of its June – Aug rally.
(At the very least, it needs a daily close above 1570/ETH to confirm a multi-week bottom. If it can do that on Sept 30, a ‘tall’ order but not out of the question for these markets, it would reinforce a reversal higher.)
Previously, in late-Jan – early-April ’22, Ether produced a similar ~symmetrical ‘a-b-c’ correction to the upside before resuming and completing its downtrend. In that case, however, it was only price movement that was symmetrical.
And, if Ether holds 1 – 2 month support (1180 – 1230/ ETH), a larger-degree upward ‘a-b-c’ wave – where the June – Aug rally was ‘a’ and the subsequent decline into late-Sept was ‘b’ – would target the ‘c’ wave advance to reach ~xxxx/ETH…
Bitcoin completed the multi-week period (Sept 6 – 23) when a 32 – 34-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression was projected to time a multi-month low. Cycles begin to turn back up next week and entered the time (Sept 26 – 30) when cycles begin to turn back up.
The month of Sept ’22 is also when a ~15-month low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression recurs and has been forecast to time a major bottom in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin & Ether are testing & holding synergistic support at 17,800 – 18,400/BT & 1180 – 1230/ETH after both completed .786 retracements (2DGR) of their Mar ’20 – Nov ’21 advances.
If Bitcoin can rally above 20,455/BTZ and close above ~20,250/BTZ tomorrow (Sept 29 close), it would trigger a dual daily 21 MAC buy signal.”
Bitcoin, in Nov ’21, fulfilled projections for a 5th of 5th wave peak in sync with a ~4-Year low (2009) – high (Nov/Dec ’13) – high (Nov/Dec ’17) – high (Nov/Dec ’21 Major Top) Cycle Progression. That also fulfilled the multi-year outlook for a major advance into 2021 when Currency War Cycles culminated and when the US Dollar would begin to rally and suppress the Crypto market.
Since then, Bitcoin was projected to plunge into Sept ’22 – when the next multi-month low was expected. Critical support near 18,000/BT is holding and could spur a 1 – 2 month rebound into early-Nov ’22 – when the next multi-month high is most likely. Major 1 – 2 year downside target remains at ~13,800/BT.
How Long Should Sept ’22 Cycle Low Hold?
Why is Early-Nov ’22 Decisive Time for Cryptos??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.