European & Middle East Cycles Concur
European & Middle East Cycles Concur;
Late-2017 = Troubling Time…
Oil Projects Advance into Jan. ’18.
10/25/17 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Big Picture Inflection Point:
“As the 4th Quarter of 2017 begins to unfold, it signals the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end, of major cycle transitions. Though this will be addressed in greater detail in forthcoming issues of INSIIDE Track, there are a couple big picture scenarios that should be reviewed and placed into this context – as 2017 prepares to transition in 2018.
— European (re-) Unification Cycles in 2018 – 2021.
One of the expectations for the overall 2013 – 2021 period was for an escalating state of crisis in the European Union that was projected to ultimately lead to a new Union in 2018 – 2021, linked to multi-decade, multi-generational & multi-century cycles.
Right on schedule, the Euro plummeted (from mid-2014), European banks accelerated toward the edge of the abyss, and a series of votes, referendums & votes for referendums (on diverse forms of dis-unity) unfolded with Brexit still evolving while Spain’s dealing with Catalonia represents the latest domino.
It is intriguing that Spain has its own uncanny 40-Year Cycle in 2017 – 2019, dating back hundreds of years & precisely timing momentous shifts in its governance. Among those, ironically titled, was the King’s War Against Independence in the late-1810’s (leading to New Spain & Central America).
2019 is also a precise 360 years from the culmination of the Franco-Spanish War in 1659.
That was followed by the ‘end of the old order’ (as some titled it) beginning in the late-1850’s, the Spanish American War of 1898 (immediately following the Cuban War of Independence & Phillippines Revolt (1895 & 1896), the Spanish Civil War in the late-1930’s and the new constitution of 1978 (following the death of Franco – the dictator who began his rule in the 1930’s – and the election of 1977).
That 40-Year Cycle seems to be pointing to another serious shift in 2018, with Catolonia’s vying for independence setting the stage.
A more market-specific topic is that which continues to be discussed with regard to the 40-year recurring battle between hard & paper currency as well as between hard & paper assets – focused on America but spreading out around the globe.
2014 (- 2021) was the culmination & transition of a 40-Year Cycle of Inflating paper assets – linked to the stock market low of 1974 and treasury market low of 1980/1981. Each of the past several years has witnessed sharp downturns & sell-offs in diverse paper assets – with the most recent being the 2015 peak in China’s & Europe’s primary equity Indexes, the 2016 peak in US treasuries and the 2017 peak in the Dollar.
As many domestic & global equities were fulfilling the latest phase of 7-Year & 14-Year Crash Cycles (projected to spur drops of 30 – 50% in 2015 – 2016) and the latest phase of related 7-Year low-low-low, 14-Year low-low-low & 42-year low-low-low Cycle Progressions (projecting a multi-year low in 2016), a larger transition was beginning to unfold.
If that expected transition is accurate, 2022 – 2023 (the next phase of the 7-Year Cycles) could time another Crash Cycle and the culmination of this 40-Year Cycle battle.
In between, 2017 has been pegged as the mid-point or transition point of many related cycles. And, late-2017 – late-2018 times the intensification of geopolitical cycles.
And 4Q 2017 – 1Q 2018 times what could be an initial acceleration phase for precious metals.
And 3Q 2017 – 1Q 2018 times what was/is expected to be the first convincing rally in a new energy bull market.
If all those cycles were placed in a Venn Diagram, the intersecting time period would be 4Q 2017…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil are slowing their advances, allowing the daily 21 MACs to turn down in Crude & Heating Oil. Their intra-month uptrends could extend the current rallies into late-month even though overall congestion could remain in force.
On a 1 – 2 month basis, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have moved progressively higher since bottoming while perpetuating an 8-week low-low-low Cycle Progression – that could spur an 8-week rally into early-Dec.”
Energy complex reinforcing mid-year buy signals in Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil (projected to trigger sharp advances in Jan. 2018) & Crude Oil analysis projecting an intervening surge from early-Oct. into Nov. 8 – 13 as part of larger, overall advance. The next phase should be another rally into early-Dec…. and then ultimately into Jan. 2018.
Middle East cycles overlap European Cycles & portend an intensification of conflict & destabilization taking hold in late-2017 – ushering in the overall 2018 – 2021 cycle that anticipates a seismic shift in the power structure of the Middle East, ultimately leading to some form of Union (as Europe undergoes a similar shift).
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.