Flood/Deluge Cycles on Tap for Winter 2022/23; Wheat Low in Jan ‘23?
Outlook 2023 – A Pair of Parallels
11-29-22 – Last month, we examined one of the two remaining (yet)-unfulfilled parallels between 2022 – 2023 and 1973 – 1974… The other (yet)-unfulfilled parallel is a Middle East war or conflict (similar to the Yom Kippur War of 1973). This is a topic that has been discussed many times before – with focus on 2023, the recurrence of multiple cycles including a 25-Year & 50-Year Cycle that impacts Israel and/or the Middle East.
The 50-Year Cycle includes 1973 (Yom Kippur War) and 1923 (carving up of the Middle East with the Palestine Mandate from the San Remo Conference and the Treaty of Lausanne with Turkey).
The 25-Year Cycle includes the 50YC events AND a series of events in 1998 (‘Islam getting the bomb’, ‘Jerusalem declared as the eternal capital of Israel’, etc.), in 1948 (Israel becoming a nation; immediate attacks on Israel) & 1898 (Zionist Congress).
The Sunspot/War Cycle
2023 is also the latest phase of a frequently-discussed Middle East War Cycle that is closely tied to the ~11.2-Year Sunspot Cycle. It includes:
1956 – Suez Crisis
1967 – Six Days War
1978/79 – Camp David/Islamic Revolution
1990 – Persian Gulf War I
2001 – 9/11 & resulting Iraqi War
2012 – Syria Civil War/Rise of ISIL
2023 – ????
Climate/Solar/Volcanic Cycles
For many years, 2022 – 2024 has been discussed with regard to Solar & Volcanic cycles – most notably analysis for a major solar storm in 2023 (see below) and a steady increase of volcanic activity – partially linked to the Sunspot Cycle – in 2022 – 2024.
2022 quickly validated this outlook with a major volcanic eruption – the largest of the 21st century and largest since Pinatubo in 1991 – at the Hunga volcano in Tonga… triggering tsunamis around that part of the globe. It was estimated this eruption was on the scale of the deadly 1883 eruption of Krakatoa (another volcano with cycles recurring in 2023/24).
It appears as though Mauna Loa is joining in the chorus, entering a new eruptive phase on Nov 27.
2022 – ‘24 is 120 years from a pair of eruptions in 1903, 80 years from a major eruption in 1942 (a few months after the attack on Pearl Harbor) and 40 years from its last major eruption in 1984… after which it entered its longest period of dormancy in recorded history. It is erupting along with Kilauea – a joint eruption not seen in almost 40 years…
Soybeans, Corn & Wheat are mixed with Soybeans rebounding while Corn & Wheat remain near recent lows. Soybeans have bounced to intermediate resistance… Wheat, after turning its weekly trend back down in late-Oct, has trended back toward its mid-Aug low – violating an intermediate cycle low in mid-Nov. On balance, that could spur an overall decline into early-Jan ’23 and/or to pivotal support near 750/WH.
Corn is consolidating and could see lower levels in Dec ’22 before a secondary bottom becomes likely. It could eventually extend its advance into 2Q ‘23 before peaking. The next 6 – 12 month peak appears most likely in April/May ‘23.”
Corn & Soybeans remain above lows set in July ’22, precisely fulfilling monthly and yearly cycles and timing what will likely be 6 – 12 month (or longer) lows in those grains. That will likely spur a new impulse wave, taking Soybeans & Corn to new highs leading into 2023. Wheat, in contrast, is likely to extend its decline into early-Jan ’23.
~11-Year, ~40-Year & ~80-Year Cycles collide in 2022 (including a 40-Year Cycle of Drought & 80-Year Cycle of Agriculture) and pinpoint what could/should be a seismic shift in natural (climate, precipitation, etc.), geopolitical and market cycles at the same time food/commodity inflation cycles & Food Crisis Cycles culminate.
2023 is expected to produce major disruptions including climate shifts (Drought/Deluge Cycles) and solar storms. As for California/Western precipitation, Winter 2022/23 is projected to time ‘a shift after reaching new extremes’, ‘an abrupt turnaround in precipitation’, ‘a prime candidate for increased precipitation’, and ‘some abrupt shifts in climate-related events’… likely to have a future impact on food prices. As explained since 2015, that should result in serious soil erosion (the loss of precious topsoil) throughout California – setting the stage for a future Food Crisis.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.