Flood/Deluge Cycles Return in Winter 2022/23; Grain Markets Giving Clues?
Outlook 2022/2023 – The Curse
10-29-22 –
Climate Cycles
In the mid-2010’s, INSIIDE Track described a convergence of longer-term climate cycles portending a culminating global warming in the late-2010’s and early-2020’s – leading into a multi-year peak. [NOTE: I am NOT a climatologist or meteorologist. This conjecture is simply based on cycle analysis.]
After a couple decades of fairly level global temperatures, the late-2010’s/early-2020’s fulfilled that outlook. That is also when a Food Crisis was forecast to take hold – driving the price of grains and other commodities substantially higher. 2023/24 is when cycles project a bit of a shift after reaching new extremes. One of those shifts could be seen in the West (as goes CA, so goes the US??)…
Based on analysis of a consistent 6-Year Cycle, a Sunspot-related 11 – 12-Year Cycle and a ~40-Year Cycle, I expect California and other parts of the West to see an abrupt turnaround in precipitation during the 2022-23 & 2023-24 rainy seasons (’water years’).
In recent decades, heavy rain years arrived in 2017 (highest total since records began), 2011, 2005, 1998, & 1993. 6, 12, 18, 24 & 30 years from those spikes pinpoint 2022/23 as a prime candidate for increased precipitation – based on a 6-Year Cycle.
Looking back over the past ~80 years, the water years of 1941, 1952, 1963, 1974, 1986, 1998 & 2011 produced surges in precipitation – averaging about 35% above the annual average amount.
2022/23 & 2023/24 are the next phase in this ~11/12-Year Cycle.
That is also when a 40-Year Cycle comes back into play – linked to increased rainfall in the early-1900’s, early-1940’s & early-1980’s, following extreme dry years in each of the preceding decades.
Following the 1976 year of extreme drought, 1982 – 83 saw consecutive water years of extreme precipitation – combining to create the greatest 2-year period of rain since records began in the late-1890’s.
Could 2022/23 or 2023/24 repeat this pattern and perpetuate that 40-Year Cycle?
Related El Nino cycles focus on 2023/24 for another chance for increased precipitation… based on cycle analysis. That is another factor in this analysis.
Since 2023 is the year with the greatest synergy of cycles related to major solar storms, the next 12 – 18 months could see some abrupt shifts in climate-related events, even if that is only temporary…
Soybeans, Corn & Wheat are mixed (remaining in congestion) with Soybeans reinforcing a top as Corn & Wheat corrected but could not confirm a top. Wheat made it up to its initial intermediate target (~950.0/WZ) in late-Sept/early-Oct and would need to close above that to project any further upside…
In the case of Soybeans, the weekly trend (down) and wave structure (corrective wave after 5-wave advance) argue for another decline that would likely take them down to test ~1200/S. They were/are poised for a quick spike high on Oct 31 – Nov 4 – fulfilling a ~7-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – before a new multi-week decline becomes more likely.
Corn remains positive and has rallied for ~2 years from its latest ~4-Year Cycle low (mid-2020). If it is going to set a subsequent (higher) low in mid-’24 – the next phase of a ~4-year high (‘04) – high (‘08) – high (‘12) – low (‘16) – low (‘20) – (low; 2Q/3Q ‘24) Cycle Progression – it could eventually extend its advance into 2Q ‘23 before peaking. The next 6 – 12 month peak appears most likely in April/May ‘23.”
Wheat peaked in perfect sync with cycles in early-March ’22 as Corn & Soybeans extended their rallies into May ’22. That was forecast to spur a sharp sell-off into July ’22, which was fulfilled and timed what will likely be 6 – 12 month (or longer) lows in those grains. That will likely spur a new impulse wave, taking Soybeans & Corn to new highs leading into 2023.
~11-Year, ~40-Year & ~80-Year Cycles collide in 2022 (including a 40-Year Cycle of Drought & 80-Year Cycle of Agriculture) and pinpoint what could/should be a seismic shift in natural (climate, precipitation, etc.), geopolitical and market cycles at the same time food/commodity inflation cycles & Food Crisis Cycles culminate.
2022/2023 is expected to produce major disruptions including climate shifts (Drought/Deluge Cycles) and solar storms. Winter 2022/23 is projected to time ‘a shift after reaching new extremes’, ‘an abrupt turnaround in precipitation [in CA]’, ‘a prime candidate for increased precipitation’, and ‘some abrupt shifts in climate-related events’… so get your umbrellas out! As explained since 2015, that should result in serious soil erosion (the loss of precious topsoil) throughout California – setting the stage for a future Food Crisis.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.