Food Crisis Cycles Approaching
08/29/15 INSIIDE Track: Outlook 2015–2017
40-Year Cycle & Food Crises
What do India, Australia, Indonesia, Europe, Argentina, China, the Midwest (US) & California have in common?
I would guess there are probably many things… and a lot of respects in which they are different. However, if you apply the 40-Year Cycle, the answer might be ‘Food Crises’…usually triggered in the ’5’ year with the results centered on or concentrated in the ‘6’ and/or ‘7’ year (of the respective decades, i.e. 1815, 1816 & 1817).
Before examining this, it is critical to understand that a food crisis can be triggered by diverse factors that range from drought to flooding and from extreme heat waves to dramatic cold spells. As a result, it is dangerous to get too tunnel-visioned on one form of expected ‘challenge’… when the opposite could unfold.
For example, what if the recurrence of El Nino suddenly triggered excessive rain & flooding in California in 2016 and created its own set of problems for crops… just when all eyes are focused on the potential for a crescendo in the ongoing drought. A food crisis would still be possible… just from an unexpected source. An on that topic…
40 years ago, California suffered severe drought in 1976–1977, exacerbating an already-challenging period of food production in America. 2016–2017 completes a 40-Year Cycle from then and could possess some parallels.
Before delving into that, however, let’s go back 200+ years and trace the progression of this 40-Year Cycle through the past two centuries. (As I will discuss next month, it goes back much farther than 200 years.)
1770’s
The 1770’s – when discussing food crises – are best known for the Bengal Famine of the early-1770’s. That Indian-based famine – that lasted several years – took over 10 million lives and is described as worse (in various respects) than the Black Plague that devastated Europe.
That famine is considered 1 of the 5 worst famines in history (right alongside the Soviet Famine of the 1930’s – also part of this 40-Year Cycle – that similarly claimed ~10 million lives). India suffered another devastating famine – killing ~11 million – in 1783, just a few years after the 1770’s. So, that ~decade claimed over 20 million lives with famine.
About the same time (1770’s), severe drought hit Colonial Mexico and drove the price of maize to astronomical levels. In Europe, the (Czech) Great Famine – killing hundreds of thousands – began a series of famines that also hit Germany & Sweden.
1810’s
Diverse records show the appearance of drought in the 1810’s, 40 years later, ranging from S. Africa to China** and to America. Multiple sources describe a 6-year drought in the Midwest in the 1810’s (as well as in the Indian Southwest). Other sources also document famine in the early-1810’s in Europe… due to cold.
[**In another corroborating ‘factoid’, China experienced a 40-Year Cycle of famine, beginning in 1810 & 1811 & culminating in 1846 & 1849. A minimum of 45 million people are believed to have died as a result of this 40-Year Cycle of famine.]
However, none of this compared to the impact of Tambora’s eruption in 1815 and the ensuing ‘Year Without a Summer’ in 1816 (reinforcing that a Food Crises can be triggered by diverse climate & meteorological extremes – from drought to flood and from excessive heat to cold).
In many areas (Canada being one of them), the worst drought in hundreds of years followed. Famine is reported in 1816 & 1817, in many regions around the globe… particularly in the middle (and more densely populated) latitudes.
While Tambora receives most of the blame for this climatologically-challenging time, it was actually the synergy of multiple eruptions in 1812–1815 that contributed to the cooling climate. They include:
1812: Initial eruptions of Tambora as well as eruptions of La Soufriere (Caribbean) & Awu (also in Indonesia). These coincided with another seismic event – the New Madrid quakes in America, 4 devastating earthquakes (7.0–8.1) in an 8-week period .
1813: Suwanosejima (Japan).
1814: Mayon (Philippines).
1815: Tambora main event.
All of these exacerbated an already-tenuous time on earth, particularly with regard to agriculture & food production. There is even thought to have been an 1809 eruption – perhaps in Latin America – that ushered in that period & began the cooling.
1850’s
40 years later, the Civil War Drought of 1856–1865 hit N. America; According to ‘Drought Research’(http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/nineteenth.shtml), there were three severe droughts in the 40-year period between the mid-1850’s and mid-1890’s (the second one being spaced at the midpoint in the mid-1870’s) with the Civil War Drought hitting Texas & the West particularly bad (‘worse than Dust Bowl’, 80 years later):
“From the mid 1850s to the mid 1860s the West and Plains were struck by a severe drought. Years ago David Stahle of the University of Arkansas had used tree ring analyses to suggest that, in Texas, this was the worst drought to strike in the last 300 years, worse than the Dust Bowl drought.”
In textbook cycle evolution, the 1850’s drought presaged certain things about the 1890’s drought… that were an unrecognized precursor to the Dust Bowl drought of the mid-1930’s (40, 40, 40). They are all connected! 1850’s, 1890’s & 1930’s… a precise 40-Year Cycle. According to the same source:
“The dust storms of the 1930s were unprecedented, during the historical record, in their severity. Before the expansion of agriculture in the Plains, the natural prairie grass bound the surface together even during droughts. It was the removal of these grasses, and replacement with wheat that could not survive, that exposed the soil to wind erosion in the 1930s…during the 1890s, it was clear that trouble was brewing. Dust storms did afflict the Plains during that drought…probably as a result of overgrazing of natural grasses by imported cattle.”
In another intriguing parallel, the combined effect of that trio of droughts (1850’s, 1870’s & 1890’s) triggered government action:
“The 1890s drought was a wake up call that in the future, if further catastrophes were to be prevented, the Federal government would have to take the lead role in development of water resources, irrigation and power. The 1890s drought is partly responsible for the beginning of Federally-driven irrigated agriculture with the Reclamation Act of 1902.”
1890’s
The 1890’s – as just noted – were another decade with global famine, including the Ethiopian Great Famine (1888–1892) that killed 1/3 of the population, a Russian famine that killed about 1/2 million people, China (leading to the Boxer Rebellion) and in India (again; killing ~6 million over 6-7 years).
There was also the Australian ‘Federation Drought’ beginning in 1895 (lasted into 1903), initially triggered by an El Nino year in 1896. A heat wave hit in late 1897 and set records (that still stand) in 1898. A combination of 3 El Nino events, beginning in 1895–1898 (then 1899–1900 & 1901–1903), devastated parts of Australia.
The interesting thing is that this Australian drought piggy-backed crop failures (wheat) in Argentina in 1893 – that largely contributed to the U.S. Panic of 1893.
(Illustrating the dynamic link between farming & financial markets in the 1800’s, a bubble-and-crash was seen in Wheat AND a financial market ’panic’ or ’crash’ was experienced during each phase of the 40-Year Cycle – in the 1810’s, 1850’s & 1890’s. The 1930’s & 1970’s were not much different – except for the fact the former was a deflationary extreme and the latter, inflationary.)
As is usually the case with the 40-Year Cycle, the same events (panics/crashes, Dollar/Gold/Silver debacle, weather extremes, food crises, etc.) occur during that initial 3–5 & 5–9 year period. In the case of the 1890’s, multiple sources peg America’s unemployment rate escalating into double-digits and remaining there from 1894–1898.
This drives home the point that it is NOT critical to identify the cause and effect since the sequence of events often alters. It IS important, however, to recognize that all of these challenges (SYNERGY) have recurred on a VERY consistent, 40-year basis.
As Goes California…
Returning to an earlier topic, California’s current drought has been compared to another devastating drought …in 1895. The current drought is thought to be the worst since 1895. So, California has at least two (40-Year Cycle) links to 2015–2017. Will the coming years complete a third?
Next month, I will resume this discussion – focusing on the 1930’s, 1970’s & 2015–2017. In addition, there are also even longer-term cycles that corroborate this analysis & focus on 2015—2017.”
Food Crisis Cycles focus on 2016/2017 for serious challenges. California drought cycles culminating in 2015/2016; Could flooding (and topsoil erosion) follow… as drought intensifies in other regions? El Nino poised to create BOTH stresses – drought & flooding in critical crop regions. Watch South America as well.