Food Crisis Cycles in Focus
09/29/15 INSIIDE Track: Outlook 2015–2017
40-Year Cycle & Food Crises II
Throughout history, there has always been a vacillating cycle between times of shortage and times of plenty. An oft-quoted example comes from the book of Genesis, when Joseph has been sold into slavery and ends up as second-in-command over all of Egypt – the political powerhouse of the day.
Based on Pharoah’s two corroborating dreams, Joseph determines that a devastating 7-Year Cycle of famine is on the horizon. However, the good news is that a prosperous 7-Year Cycle of plenty will precede it. With the proper leadership & disciplined approach, Egypt has the potential to make it through that tumultuous 7-Year Cycle (the second one) and remain a powerful nation. Similar to the 40-Year Cycle application, this 7-Year Cycle also was a time of preparation.
One secondary lesson from that account is how quickly a true Food Crisis could devastate a nation (particularly in those agrarian times) – at least one that is only focused on satiating one’s self for the moment instead of acting responsibly and preparing for a proverbial ’rainy day’ (or a rainless day).
When a nation like Egypt bonded together, made common sacrifices, and prepared for some challenging times, it made it through them. (Of course, that is also the benefit of a totalitarian government… when it makes the right decision.)
At the opposite end of the spectrum, one might find a nation that is hit with repeated warnings and ‘yellow flags’ but is so complacent and desensitized – by its politicians, media & entertainment industry – that it collectively sticks its head in the sand and says: “Nope. No problems here.” (Of course, that is just a fictional nation in this hypothetical scenario.)
But let’s get back to this 7-Year Cycle and link it to our over-arching discussion on the 40-Year Cycle & Food Crises…
40-Year Cycle Phases
Funny enough, this examination of the 40-Year Cycle deals primarily with a ~7-year period, every 40 years, that is almost as momentous.
In the case of the present day, key 40-Year Cycle events were expected – and materialized – in 2011–2014 (peak in Gold, moves to supplant US Dollar as global kingpin, culmination of Stock-flation, etc.) – as the latest 40-Year Cycles were transitioning – but the ‘stuff’ is expected to really ‘hit the fan’ in 2015–2021… a 7-Year period.
In this case, it might be a type of economic ‘famine’…
Swarms & Synergy
When examining these periods, one principle is vitally important – Synergy. It is inadequate to look for one major event – repeating through history – and try to measure its cyclicality. That is where most skeptics naively dismiss cycles and look no farther. Instead, it is the groupings of events that are key.
I often refer to these groupings as ‘swarms’… particularly in discussions on earth disturbances. But, this synergistic principle also applies to food & crop crises and to droughts & famines. As demonstrated last month, the 1770’s, 1810’s, 1850’s & 1890’s each experienced ‘swarms’ of food crises, climate-altering events and all-out famines… at a consistent, 40-year periodicity.
Before continuing that progressing pattern (from the 1890’s to the present), I want to touch on the overlapping 80-Year Cycle and what it timed before the 1770’s (part of the 1690’s–1770’s–1850’s–1930’s–2010’s cycle)…
1690’s
The 1690’s – in addition to many other food crises – witnessed a famine in Scotland that killed about 10% of the population, a famine in France that killed 2 million, a famine in Estonia that killed 150–175,000 and a famine in Finland that killed 1/3 of the total population.
The sum total effect was a devastating blow to Europe during this narrow window of time.
Rejoining our 40-Year Cycle discussion where we left off last month (1890’s), the next phase – and one of the most notorious and oft-cited – occurred at the nadir of the Great Depression…
1930’s
The 1930’s are best known for the Dust Bowl that decimated the nation’s heartland in America & Canada. It coincided with the 1936 N. American Heat Wave – considered to be the worst heat wave in the modern history of this continent.
However, that Food Crisis paled by comparison – at least when counting lives lost – with 1 of the 5 worst famines in history – the Soviet Famine of the 1930’s. The interesting thing about both of these Food Crises is that they had a strong ‘human-induced’ factor exacerbating them.
In the case of the Soviet Famine, it was primarily human-caused – the result of another wonderful social experiment in collectivist farming. Regardless of its underlying cause, it resulted in a widespread famine that claimed as many as 9 million lives.
The Dust Bowl was a synergistic combination of poor farming techniques (for decades prior), leaving little top soil when trying times struck the landscape, excessive heat, drought & economic challenges of the Great Depression. It struck primarily in 1934, 1936 & 1939–1940.
And, at the same time (1936), China was hit with its second famine of the 1930’s – that claimed over 5 million lives (the preceding one – caused by drought – accounted for 3 million deaths).
[China has its own cycle governing the most devastating famines – with the two deadliest of the past 150 years arriving 80 years apart… in the late-1870’s & late 1950’s… accounting for about 10–12 million & 20–40 million deaths, respectively.]
1970’s
40 years later, the inflationary 1970’s arrived. And with that, so did another Food Crisis – created by a combination of natural and man-made events. From a climate perspective, there had been a progressive, steady cooling since the 1930’s.
In fact, it was so much so that a notorious ecologist – Kenneth Watt – explained in great detail how the dramatic cooling of the preceding decades was a harbinger of an impending Ice Age. He explained how by the 1990’s, global temps would drop about 4 more degrees and by 2000, it would be 10–11 degrees colder. Can anyone spell hyperbole?
[It should not be overlooked that Watt’s dire warnings were part of his speech at Swarthmore College on the Date of Aggression/Date of Infamy – April 19, 1970.]
Other scientists & climatologists jumped on the bandwagon and so did Time & Newsweek, featuring articles in 1974 & 1975, titled: ‘Another Ice Age?’ and ‘The Cooling World’. According to the Newsweek article, the overwhelming evidence supporting the global cooling argument “…has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it.”
That 1975 article also warned that global cooling could usher in a ’drastic decline in food production’. So, naturally, when 1976 & 1977 ushered in one of California’s worst droughts, the obvious cause was front & center on everyone’s mind**.
[**While this discussion evokes heated debate from both extremes, there is little denying that the media was hyping global cooling throughout the 1970’s. So, it was a case of perception governing reactions and/or public policy… the proverbial tail again wagging the dog.
While I was researching the specifics of that discussion, I came across a website – populartechnology.net – that contained over 110 links to articles from 1970–1979 – building on these dire assumptions. These articles included a CIA paper as well as articles in the NY Times & Washington Post… andmany regional papers.
Most of them blamed air pollution for the global cooling and many of them warned of the coming food crisis that would inevitably result from that undeniable science. Hmmm.]
Ironically (or cyclically), the same individual presided over California when it was plunged into its previous major drought AND its current, devastating drought – 1–2 years after he was elected and took office (Jerry Brown). The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Believe it or not, I am not attempting to stoke that debate. Instead, I am attempting to provide a snapshot (and, yes, snapshots require context) of the overriding events and reactions of that period. One of the reasons for doing so is my suspicion that decisions of the 1970’s laid the groundwork for impending challenges in the 2010’s.
Cycles Spiraling Forward
The excerpt at the bottom of this page comes from last issue’s discussion on the Food Crises of the 1850’s, 1890’s & 1930’s… all preceded by the devastating global period of the late-1810’s (Tambora eruption & Year Without a Summer).
The reason for reiterating that is to stress the nature of cycles – measuring a spiral in life, where events ‘circle’ back around and mimic – but do not duplicate – their predecessors. Another way of looking at this is like a perpetual relay race, in which the baton is handed off every 40 years… after one complete circuit of the track we call ‘life’.
In that respect, I am focusing on the actions of reactions that accompanied each period… and ultimately contributed to the challenges of the next 40-Year Cycle (and often 2-3 more).
I suspect the actions & reactions of the 1970’s – with the most salient being the massive push for corporate farming, creating an industrial monoculture out of nearly every farm while mandating fencerow to fencerow planting (of corn) – ‘planted the seeds’ (half a pun intended) for challenges that are only beginning to emerge now. If the 40-Year Cycle is accurate, 2016–2019 is ‘go-time’!”
Food Crisis Cycles focus on 2016/2017 & 2016–2019 for serious challenges & escalating commodity prices. El Nino-related flooding (and potential topsoil erosion) could add an unexpected culprit… even as drought & heat intensify in other regions. Watch South America & California, where unique cycles are poised for a dramatic shift.