Global Stocks & White Metals Concur: Early-April Lows Project Powerful Surges!
04/30/25 – Stock Indices plunged into early-April ’25, fulfilling a myriad of cycles and downside wave & price targets as they confirmed the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks & Sell-offs and reached the minimum downside target… the first major decline was forecast to last into late-March/early-April with the S+P Midcap 400 leading the way.
That is exactly what took place with the S+P Midcap leading sharp declines from late-Nov ‘24, from late-Jan ‘25, from mid-Feb ‘25 and ultimately from late-March ‘25.
A multi-month low in April ‘25 would fulfill the convergence of multiple cycles & Cycle Progressions that includes an 18/19-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression, related ~2-Year Cycles, and annual cycles that have timed multi-month lows…
Global Indices
China’s CSI 300 Index & Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunged into early-April – along with most other global indexes – with the Hang Seng dropping right back to its now-rising monthly 21 High MAC while testing its year-opening range (intra-year uptrend support) and yearly (‘24) close.
It did that while fulfilling a ~15-month AND an over-arching 30 – 31-month low-low-(low; April ‘25) Cycle Progression.
On balance, that could lead to a rally into Sept/Oct ‘25 – perpetuating a ~7-month low-low-low-low-high-(high; Oct ‘25) Cycle Progression, a ~3-year advance, and a .618 rebound of its 2018 – 2022 decline.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index plummeted into early-April, spiking below its early-Aug ‘24 low (but holding it on a closing basis) – initially fulfilling the downside price objective for this decline.
That initially fulfills the criteria for an ‘a-b-c’ correction – from its July ‘24 peak – and was reinforced by the fact it attacked its Oct ‘23 low – the 4th wave of lesser degree support. That could have an impact on a pair of future cycles…
March 2026 remains the month with the greatest synergy of cycles and could perpetuate a ~2-year/~24-month low (Feb ‘16) – low (Mar ‘18) – low (Mar ‘20) – low (Mar ‘22) – high (March ‘24 – the initial peak and highest monthly close) – (high; Mar ‘26) Cycle Progression. The action of the next 2 – 3 months needs to validate and/or clarify this.
The European STOXX 600 Index plunged after fulfilling multiple cycles by rallying to new highs into March ’25 – the culmination of a ~30-month low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression. That peak occurred on March 3 – 7th – fulfilling a ~15-week low-low-low-(high; March 3 – 14, ‘25) Cycle Progression – when a multi-week peak was expected.
It plunged to its monthly AND yearly HLS (extreme downside target) and bottomed right at its rising monthly 40 Low MAC – indicating that a multi-month low likely took hold…
Canada’s TSX 60 Index – after peaking while fulfilling a 32 – 34-week low-low-low-(high; Jan 27 – Feb 14, ’25) Cycle Progression – plunged down to its previous April ‘22 (and May ‘24) peak near 1350 – a pivotal level of resistance turned into support.
It also attacked and held its monthly HLS (extreme downside target) at 1352 and immediately rallied after testing its rising monthly 21 High MAC. Combined with its prevailing monthly uptrend, that likely set a wave ‘IV’ low and could spur the TSX to new highs into 3Q ‘25…
Gold & Silver powerfully fulfilled both of their divergent trend and cycle objectives with Silver plunging below its Dec ‘24 low – and right to its early-August ‘24 low (and 4th wave of lesser degree support described since 4Q ‘24… see Oct ‘24 chart reprinted above) – as Gold continued higher into multi-month cycles that converge in late-April/early-May ‘25.
They surged into the middle half of April with Gold initially fulfilling its potential for a 1 – 2 month high on April 14 – 25th – the time when a consistent 23 – 24-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression came back into play. Gold also fulfilled an intra-year pattern from recent years…
In that annual ~360-degree cycle, Gold has set a multi-week or multi-month peak in the middle part of April – in sync with the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19th) and/or the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – a time when tensions, conflict and/or safe haven ‘needs’ often culminate in metals…
Gold fulfilled the potential for a blow-off top in line with Natural Year ‘opening month’ analysis (portending an initial surge into ~April 19th as an omen of what could follow in 2025).
That is in lockstep with analysis for another abrupt shift in the ongoing currency battle between paper (fiat), hard (metals), and digital (cryptos) currency. Bitcoin – and stocks – had already set multi-week lows in early-April and were waiting on Gold & the Dollar Index to complete their recent moves.
It was also in sync with the ~7-Year Cycle analysis of Gold discussed over the past ~two years. Each time, that analysis has described how Gold’s 2022 – present advance is mirroring key timing aspects of its 2015 – 2020 advance.
In that previous bull market, Gold initially surged into the middle part of 2016 (after bottoming in 4Q 2015) and then set a subsequent peak in April 2018… that held for over a year.
In the current bull market, Gold bottomed in 4Q 2022 (7 years later), initially surged into the middle part of 2023 (7 years later) and was poised to peak in the middle part of April 2025 – 7 years after the April 2018 peak. That may have just occurred.
One irony in the metals’ market (reinforcing the divergence that has prevailed since mid-Nov ‘24) is that Gold could be setting a multi-month peak within a couple weeks of Silver setting new intra-year and ~6-month lows.
That low reached Silver’s ongoing downside target near 27.60/SIK, precisely fulfilling projections for a ‘C’ wave decline that have been the focus since Dec ‘24.
From a timing perspective, Silver set a low in April ’25 – fulfilling broader geometric cycles that include a move of 180 degrees from its Oct ’24 peak and – looking forward – a low that is ~360 degrees prior to major cycles in ~April 2026.
This entire move has been another example of how the two metals can trade in divergent trends and divergent wave structures… even while rallying & declining (mostly) in tandem.
Since mid-November, when Gold perpetuated a ~14-week low-low-low-(low; Nov 11 – 18, ’24) Cycle Progression while triggering a bullish weekly trend signal, it has been projected to see another major advance in 2025 – taking hold in January and initially lasting into late-April/early-May’ 25.
At the same time, Silver was repeatedly forecast to remain below its late-Oct ’24 peak until a spike below its mid-Dec ’24 low occurred.
That finally occurred on April 4/7th, freeing Silver up to begin a new impulse wave higher (and possibly pivot into the leader of the next advance in metals – a rally that is more inflation driven).
That could be linked to future inflation, global competition for critical metals and minerals, and the tech-related needs of the new economy.
The overriding outlook remains that Gold & Silver are in broader bullish trends and their outlook remains positive. Gold & Silver perpetuated a ~7-year low (4Q ‘01) – low (4Q ‘08) – low (4Q ‘15) – low (4Q ‘22) Cycle Progression in October ‘22 and have been projected to undergo a multi-year advance into 2026/2027 or later.
The XAU & HUI surged into mid-April after plunging to 1 – 2 month support in early-April and reaffirming its intra-year uptrend. That support included the Feb ’25 low (150.84), the ‘25 opening range high (resistance turned into support at 152.18/XAU) and the March ’25 low at 152.48/XAU.
The XAU spiked down to 152.02 on April 7th – reversing higher from its rising weekly 21 AND 40 High MACs – a bullish development that spurred a surge into diverse resistance and a monthly LHR (extreme upside target) at 196.33 – 199.56/XAU.
It also spiked up to range-trading resistance near 199.00/XAU – linking previous range parameters (throughout 2023 – present) at ~103 – ~135 – ~167 – ~199/XAU. (The next target would be 231/XAU.)
For now, the overall uptrend remains solidly intact and could spur a new rally into June ‘25 – the next phase of the XAU’s ~2-month, ~4-month & ~8-month cycles and also the target (June/July) for the intra-year uptrend.
A ~14-week & ~28-week low-low-(??) Cycle Progression come into play in mid-July ‘25 but related expectations are not yet ascertained. The ~7-week midpoint – in late-May ‘25 – could clarify.
Platinum rallied into late-April… It also reinforces the potential for a subsequent peak in early-August ’25. To reiterate…
Platinum has been trading in a narrowing range for over 3 years, since its March ‘22 peak spurred a sell-off into its Sept ‘22 low. On a continuous-contract basis, Platinum has not exceeded that March ‘22 high or dropped below that Sept ‘22 low.
It subsequently rallied into a (lower) high in April ‘23 and then dropped to a (higher) low in Nov ‘23. That spurred a rally into a (lower) high in May ‘24 followed by a drop to a (higher) low in Dec ‘24… the time when a more bullish 12 – 18-month cycle began to take hold.
Following that late-Dec ‘24 low, Platinum rallied into mid-Feb ‘25 and has since declined – turning its weekly trend back down and delaying the onset of a new advance.
Platinum remains capable of turning its monthly 21 High MAC up, for the first time since October ‘23, but it would now take a rally above 1050.5/PLN during the month of May ‘25. On a continuous-contract basis, it has turned that average up but the July ‘25 contract has not yet concurred.
On a broader basis, Platinum could rally into 2026 – a 50% rebound in time (12 years down/6 years up) and the latest phase of a ~5-year high (2011) – high (2016) – high (2021) – (high; 2026) Cycle Progression that parallels the Silver outlook.
Palladium remains above its August ‘24 low but did spike to new intra-year lows in early-April – also delaying the onset of a new advance.
In the middle of May ‘25, Palladium will have the most favorable setup for the weekly 21 MAC to turn up… but only if it can rally above 970/PAM during the week of May 12 – 16th.
A more bullish pattern would unfold if it can pair that with a weekly close above 1010/PAM – allowing it to close above the weekly 21 High MAC and above its ~2-month high. Until that occurs, Palladium is in congestion – a little above multi-year lows.
On a longer-term basis, Palladium is expected to enter a new bull market in 2025 and stretch that into 3Q 2026 – when the next multi-year peak appears most likely. A peak in 3Q ‘26 would fulfill a ~5.25-year low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression as well as a .618 rebound in time (39-month decline followed by 24-month rally).
An intervening peak in Aug/Sept 2025 would reinforce that scenario.
Copper plunged after fulfilling a myriad of upside price and timing targets in late-March and projecting a multi-week peak.
It fulfilled a ~4-week high-low-low-low-low-(high; Mar 24 – 28, ’25) Cycle Progression while attacking a major upside trading range target at ~5.350/HG (3.400 – 4.050 – 4.700 – 5.350/HG)… and quickly plummeted to related range-trading support near 4.050/HG, where a multi-week low was set.
As long as that 6 – 12 month support holds, and Copper maintains its intra-year uptrend, it remains in an overall uptrend and could soon enter a new wave higher.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are powerfully reinforcing analysis for surges to new all-time highs after confirming multi-month bottoms in early-April ’25 (April 3, 4 & 7th possessed greatest synergy of cycles for completing 20 – 30% projected plunges) while fulfilling major downside price targets and related 17-Year Cycle analysis for 2025. Decisive objectives were fulfilled with the early-April ’25 lows – indicating a major bottom!
Their monthly trend patterns, monthly 21 MACs & MARCs, monthly (and weekly) cycles, monthly downside objectives & 6 – 12 month support levels all argue for powerful rallies that catapult key indexes up to new all-time highs in the coming months. The (perceived) multi-year wave structure is arguing for the same. The extent of declines in ‘Magnificent 7’ and related tech stocks corroborated the ongoing outlook that early-April ’25 would complete a major sell-off and usher in a decisive bottom.
Metals are corroborating as Silver (along with Platinum & Palladium) fulfilled ongoing forecasts for major lows in early-April, triggering revealing buy signals that were followed by powerful surges. Mid-May ’25 could/should trigger another wave of bullish signals. Meanwhile, Gold rallied into the days surrounding April 19th (Date of Aggression) – and was/is expected to set a 2 – 3 month peak at that time.
Why Should April 4th/7th Bottom Spur Rallies to New All-Time Highs?
How are Monthly Trend & Monthly 21 MACs Reinforcing Projected Lows?
How Does Outlook for MAJOR Surge in White Metals Concur?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.