Gold & Silver Trading: Feb. Surge into Feb 21 – 25 Projected; 1920/GC = Ideal Target.
01/29/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver dropped sharply in the week after Silver tested and held its weekly LHR (24.74/SIH). To begin the week, Gold spiked higher into Jan 25 – matching the duration of its initial (Dec 15 – Dec 31/Jan 3) rally – before peaking. It did that while rallying right to weekly resistance (and the new Intra-week PLLR at 1853.9/GCG).
While that could normally spur a drop back to weekly support, before resuming this overall rebound, Gold & Silver subsequently broke below weekly support – showing additional (and unexpected) weakness on a near-term basis.
As a result, they negated the potential for additional upside into an interim high, leading into the coming week. They peaked earlier than expected and at lower levels than expected, spurring sell-offs back to early-Jan. lows – ushering in the potential to set intervening lows – instead of highs – in the coming days.
Those levels are now critical support for the intra-year trend. Gold & Silver should not give weekly closes below 1781.3/GCG & 21.94/SIH if they are to maintain the potential to set higher highs on Feb 21 – 28 – the next phase of Gold’s ~7-week low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that timed the early-Jan peak. A top at that time would also fulfill the next phase of an overriding 17 – 18 month high (Aug/Sept ’17) – high (Feb ’19) – high (Aug ’20) – high (Jan/Feb ’22) Cycle Progression.
On a broader basis, both metals remain locked inside 2-month trading ranges that are part of ~4-month trading ranges inside of over-arching 6 – 7 month trading ranges that have been in effect since Gold & Silver set secondary highs in May ’21 (as the XAU was spiking to a divergent higher peak).
That followed Gold & Silver’s Aug ’20 peaks (which Silver retested in Feb ’21), which have remained intact ever since. Gold retested 1840/GC trading range resistance but could not give a weekly close above it, spurring a drop back toward range-trading support near 1760/GC. All of this action continues to reflect a 1 – 2 year corrective period that was expected to set a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom in late-Sept/early-Oct ’21 and then rally.
Those late-Sept ’21 lows need to remain in force if Gold & Silver are to maintain the likelihood for additional gains during this overall rebound (from then). Both metals tested and held their weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets for this past week) at 1780.1/GCG & 22.30/SIH.
That signal portends a 1 – 2 month low in the ensuing weeks, so the time is right for another intermediate low… The potential for an imminent intermediate low is reinforced by the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARCs, which will drop over the next three weeks… that 21 MARC movement would help to turn the corresponding weekly 21 MACs back up in 2 – 3 weeks…
The XAU & HUI remain in renewed congestion – stuck in 1 – 2 month, 2 – 4 month & 4 – 6 month trading ranges after setting 3 – 6 month lows in sync with weekly & monthly cycle lows in late-Sept ‘21.
The HUI, as it has consistently in the past, is showing divergent weekly cycles with the greatest synergy arriving just after Gold cycles converge (in late-Feb ’22)… As long as new lows are not set in the coming week, a subsequent rally into early-March (Feb 28 – March 4 = most synergy) could follow.
Copper retreated after surging to new 2+-month highs and setting its highest daily close since Oct 20 and its highest weekly close since Oct 15.
It remains in what is likely to be the final phase(s) of a ~2-year bull market but could still see an additional spike high before the end of 1Q ’22. If that is to remain the case, Copper should not give a weekly close below 4.1160/HGH.
Platinum & Palladium remain strong and are reinforcing bullish signals from mid-Dec – that projected surges into late-Jan/early-Feb. Both turned their weekly trends up and then rallied above (and closed above) their weekly 21 High MACs on Jan 21, reinforcing this outlook and confirming that multi-month bottoms are intact.
As explained in recent months, these could be 6 – 12 month or even 1 – 2 year lows in these metals.”
Gold & Silver remain on track for an overall surge into Feb 21 – 28 and to at least 1913 – 1920/GC. Since that would only match previous rallies, and Gold is perceived to be in a higher magnitude advance, it should ultimately exceed 1920/GC and validate the overall outlook for 2022. Short-term cycles & indicators are setting the stage for an intervening low and buy signal at this time.
Platinum & Palladium fulfilled major downside objectives in Dec ‘21 and are signaling 6 – 12 month bottoms and the onset of new multi-month advances… as Copper is fulfilling multi-year upside objectives (and could peak in 1Q ’22).
What is Significance of Feb 21 – 25 Cycles in Gold… and Why Should Metals Spike Up into That Time Frame?
Will Gold Reach/Exceed 1920/GC by/in Late-Feb ’22? What about cycles in April & Sept ’22??
How Does US Dollar Fit into Equation?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.