Gold & Silver Reinforce Currency War & Multi-Year Uptrend; 2024 Peak Likely Intact.
10-31-24 – “The intrinsic value of the US Dollar – or any currency, for that matter – is based on comparative values. Even when the Dollar had intrinsic worth (before being backed by nothing more than debt), it’s value was based on a corresponding measure of Gold.
Regardless of whether or not the Dollar printers relate current Federal Reserve Notes to Gold, it is still valued against Gold on a moment by moment basis. So, there remains a ‘gold standard’ for the US Dollar… it just isn’t codified into US law. As a result, it is very easy to assess the ‘value’ of the US Dollar – as it has been throughout US history – by looking at the Dollar-based price of Gold… and inverting that relationship.
Gold Standard?
In September 1999 – a little over a quarter-century ago – Gold completed a ~19-year decline (basis the US Dollar) and bottomed near $270/oz. Since then, it has moved progressively higher for 25+ years and has increased it’s value – against the US Dollar – ten-fold. That’s not a bad run for Gold.
In December 2015, Gold set a secondary low (after retracing from its Sept 2011 peak) and was forecast to surge into late-2020/early-2021 as part of a larger advance that should extend past 2025:
40YC & Currency War: Breakthrough Strategies
Conversely, the Dollar has traded lower against Gold – on balance – throughout this entire century. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for the value of the US Dollar.
During much of that time, however, the Dollar’s deterioration has been masked… by the more rapid deterioration in the value of other fiat currencies.
After declining from 2001 into 2008, the Dollar Index (US Dollar value – based on a comparative basket of other debt-backed currencies) declined as Gold experienced an initial surge.
Following its 2008 low, the Dollar Index moved progressively higher – against those other currencies – into 2022 – completing a series of 7-Year Cycles that have governed the Dollar for decades.
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
However, it was a far more ominous cycle shift – at that same time – that really impacted the Dollar…
40-Year Cycle of C.W. Shift
Throughout the 2010’s and early-2020’s, multi-year, multi-decade & multi-generational cycles had forecast a major top for the US Dollar to take hold in late-2022/early-2023. It did exactly that!
Chart-based sell signals were triggered in late-2022 and were followed by a ~20-month topping phase that was finally confirmed on August 30, 2024. Now comes the ‘reality’…
In alignment with trend reversal signals, that type of confirmation often occurs at the culmination of an initial sell-off, fulfilling initial sell signals. That is why the Dollar Index was forecast to bottom in Sept/Oct and trigger an initial multi-week rally from there. In doing so, it ‘casts shadows ahead’ – to 2025.
At the same time, Gold is completing ~1-year & ~2-year uptrends that are projected to peak in late-October ‘24. While that is not expected to time the end of a broader overall uptrend, it does usher in the time for a significant correction.
40 & 80-Year Cycles of Currency War
2024 was/is expected to be a pivotal time for the US Dollar and global foreign exchange – linked to the ubiquitous 40-Year Cycle and an over-arching 80-Year Cycle. 2024 is 80 years from the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944… the first negotiated monetary union with Gold as its foundation.
1944 was 80 years from the Coinage Act and Banking Act of 1864, which was 80 years from the founding of the Bank of North America and establishment of the first mint in 1782/1783… all closely governing US currency and Currency Wars.
The 1864 Banking Act included the key criteria for ‘establishing a national banking association’. It ushered in the beginning of the ‘national banking era’… that continues to the present… 160 years later.
2024 ushers in similar centralized banking cycles – on a global scale.
1784 began an era when coordinated banking and a gold-backed currency were codified into the governance of the 13 US Colonies. 80 years later…
1864 began an era of national banking associations in the US… that began a subtle shift away from Gold.
1944 began an era of unified global banking (the IMF & World Bank were created at that time) and currency coordination – that saw the same shift away from Gold, after initially embracing it.
2024 is 80 years from the start of that gold-based global monetary ‘union’… a time/cycle for change.
2024 is also 160 & 240 years (80-Year Cycles) from major events in the evolution of a national and then international currency & monetary union.
2024 could time a dramatic shift for Gold, the US Dollar, and/or the global monetary order.
The BRICS nations are happy to oblige…
Gold & Silver continue to reinforce analysis that projected major, multi-year lows to take hold in late-2022 and lead to a multi-year advance… which has been unfolding since then.
Ultimately, these trends and cycles could spur higher prices into 2027 – when major cycles converge.
As part of that, they are fulfilling an uncanny Cycle Progression that could/should usher in a multi-month top at this time. A peak in late-October ‘24 would fulfill an ongoing ~1-year/~12.5-month high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression.
That is reinforced by related ~54-week cycle & 27-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions and the latest phase of a ~5-week/34 – 37-day low-high-high-high-(high; Oct 30 – Nov 4) Cycle Progression in Gold. Silver reached upside targets on October 22/23 and has likely peaked.
The XAU & HUI fulfilled upside projections in price and time as the XAU surged into a synergistic convergence of geometric cycle highs on October 21/ 22nd and topped while fulfilling an ~18-week low-low-low-low-(high; Oct 21 – 25, 2024 Cycle Progression as well as the following:
- ~4-month low (Feb 13) – low (June 17) – (high; October 21/22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~2-month low (Feb 13) – low (April 16) – low (June 17) – high (Aug 20) – (high; October 21/22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~3-month high (Jan 12) – high (April 12) – high (July 16/17) – (high; October 16 – 22, 2024) Cycle Progression.
That also fulfilled a similar ~1-year/~12.5-month high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression as in Gold. They have since sold off and confirmed a top…
The Dollar Index triggered a multi-week buy signal in early-October, signaling that its late-Sept low was a higher magnitude bottom (1 – 2 month instead of 1 – 2 week)…
This comes after it bottomed in sync with a 38 – 41 month cycle – from the May 2021 low – that has governed Dollar movement for over three decades.
That also fulfilled an 80 – 81-month low (May 2011) – low (Jan/Feb 2018) – (low; Oct 2024) Cycle Progression – reinforcing that its monthly trend and 21 MAC signals timed an initial (multi-month) bottom.
The monthly charts project a secondary peak in 1Q 2025, ideally in January ‘25. That could then usher in [reserved for subscribers]…”
Gold & Silver (as well as XAU & HUI) have completed the time when a multi-month peak was/is most likely, likely ushering in a multi-month corrective phase, while projecting focus to key time frames in 2025… for future highs. Late-Jan/early-Feb, late-April/early-May & late-Oct/early-Nov 2025 represent future phases of the corresponding cycles.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow..
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
Late-2023 was projected to reaffirm this analysis when Middle East War Cycles were projected to reignite (in October 2023… exactly when war broke out)…
Middle East War Cycles Collide in Late-2023
In the subsequent months, Gold powerfully validated that cycle and projected a breakout surge in the months/year to follow the early-October 2023 low…
Solar, Seismic & Gold Intensity Cycles
All that sets the stage for what has been projected for Gold (as well as the US Dollar, Bitcoin, etc.) in 4Q 2024… and throughout 2025. The current phase of that outlook should be timing a final 2024 peak in Gold & Silver now – when multi-month & multi-year cycles converge. That would reinforce a series of future peaks projected for 2025 & 2026… as Gold’s bull market continues.
See current publications for the most updated analysis.
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