Gold & Silver Reinforce Natural Year Onset; Action into April 19/20 Critical.
03-29-23 – It’s the time of year, again, to review a very critical and decisive period in our world. This period was reinforced as several markets/complexes – including precious metals, currencies & bonds – completed intermediate surges (as others retreated) into the week of March 20 – 24, ‘23 – when weekly cycles converged.
On its own, that may seem inconsequential. However, it has the potential to become significant as the next ~3 weeks unfold. The reason for this has to do with what is described as the first month of the Natural Year. It is the first ~30-day period following the Vernal Equinox… and holds great significance for the ensuing ~11 months of that Natural Year (until Vernal Equinox 2024).
Opening Range
For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as most agricultural-based societies do), this period kicks off the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox (March 20, ‘23). However, it is often the end of that ‘month’ that is most important… for multiple reasons.
If one were to begin a calendar on the vernal equinox, the first month of that year would end on April 19/20. It would be the ‘opening range’ for that Natural Year; a determining factor for the ensuing intra-year trend.
Why?
The Sun governs our seasons, which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. It also has a dramatic impact on our overall lives, not to mention the influence of something like the Sunspot Cycle (which has already had an oversized impact on events in and out of the markets since Solar Cycle 25 began – in lockstep with Covid-19 – in Dec 2019).
This has been true in farming/ag-based societies for thousands of years. It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun (and established their calendars based on that focus) – much of which is still prevalent in our modern-day calendar.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death; 2022 reaffirmed that).
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year. This is similar to how I treat the first 3 weeks – and month – of the calendar year, the first 3 trading days of each month, and the first day of the week.
Once that opening range (first 30 days) of the Natural Year is complete, you have resistance and support for the entire period – both when the market is trading in that range AND once it has broken out of it.
You also have an important gauge of trend for that year (if the market is trading above that range, it is in an uptrend on an intra-year basis, etc.).
In many ways, April 19/20 acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. As I have discussed for the past three decades, that time (surrounding April 19) is what I term the Date of Aggression… a dangerous and volatile period.
In 2022, it was projected to time 3 – 6 month (or longer) peaks and trigger abrupt sell-offs in both stocks and gold. The DJIA & Gold precisely fulfilled that analysis and have still NOT returned to the highs set during that decisive week.
In contrast, 2020 provided the opposite with the entire stock market, most metals and many commodities bottoming on March 18 – 23, 2020 and beginning new bull markets from there. In 2021, stocks began a second intra-year rally in late-March and the originating lows became pivotal support that was tested multiple times in some indexes (like DJTA & Russell 2000).
The key takeaway involves what occurs during that initial ‘month’ and what the markets reveal about the ensuing 11 ‘months’ of that new Natural Year…
Gold & Silver are hesitating after Gold surged into March 20 and Silver into March 24, with Gold setting its highest daily close on March 23 (as the Natural Year began). Both remain in intermediate uptrends until, at least, daily closes below 1940/GCM & 22.50/SIK.
Silver needs a weekly close above 23.71/SIK to turn its weekly trend up and confirm a low. Silver is steadily confirming that a secondary low is intact after fulfilling almost all of what would be expected from a larger-magnitude ‘2’ wave pullback (or ‘B’… both have the same characteristics) in early-March ‘23.
On balance, these metals are still expected to work higher into [reserved for subscribers]…
The XAU & HUI neutralized their weekly downtrends (for the second time on March 24) as they fulfilled projections for surges to monthly resistance at 127.12 – 130.71/XAU & 247.63 – 256.51/HUI. They would not turn those weekly trends up until weekly closes above 127.82/XAU & 249.85/HUI.
This comes after those indexes fulfilled a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression while bottoming on Mar 6 – 10, ’23. It would take the weekly trends turning up in order to confirm that low as a multi-month bottom… and to prevent a retest of that low.
That low also fulfilled what the monthly trend had projected. In Jan ’23, both indexes turned their monthly trends up – a lagging/confirming indicator that often reverses right as a market is initially peaking.
In the ideal scenario, that signal and that initial peak spur a reactive 1 – 3 month pullback before a new advance – and the resumption of the overarching uptrend – takes hold. By correcting into early-March, these indexes fulfilled that scenario while reaching downside targets and monthly HLS levels. As a result, the March 31 close could be revealing.”
Gold & Silver fulfilled the 1 – 2 year outlook for lows in Sept ’22 (SI) and Nov/Dec ’22 (GC) and entered the ideal setup – based on inflationary factors (slowing), interest rates, and the Dollar (peaking) – for the onset of a very bullish 1 – 2 year period. Platinum is signaling something similar. 2023/24 holds the potential for some abrupt surprises for precious metals, with multiple advances projected.
The second advance was expected to begin in early-March ‘23, after metals completed ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave pullbacks (following the initial advances). Corresponding signals projected strong rallies in March/April ’23… coinciding with the outlook for bottoming Bonds & Notes, Cryptos and other markets.
The XAU & HUI are similar and projected a multi-month low by/on March 6 – 10 – perpetuating an uncanny ~23-Week Cycle. The monthly trend projects a strong rally to new intra-year highs to follow. Gold triggered a convincing weekly buy signal on March 3, ’23 and then triggered a corroborating daily buy signal on the March 8 close… confirming the outlook for a new surge in March/April ’23.
How High Could Gold & Silver (&XAU) Reach in 2023?
Will the Outlook for Bonds (Bottom in ~March ’23) & Interest Rates Concur?
What Other Factors Could Positively Impact Gold & Silver in 2023?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.