Gold & Silver Marking Time

Gold & Silver Marking Time
Low Intact; Nov. 13 – 17 = Focus
New Rally Expected Then.

 

11/04/17 Weekly Re-Lay:

 

“Gold & Silver are consolidating after an initial rebound that further validated a sequence of daily cycles in October.  Precious metals fulfilled projections for a drop into Oct. 5 – 6, a subsequent rally into Oct. 13/16 and then a drop back to month-opening ranges leading into late-Oct.  They then bounced again.

The weekly trend patterns remain moderately positive, arguing for a rally back to the September highs.  Gold & Silver need to produce weekly closes above 1297.0/GCZ & 17.100/SIZ to re-enter their weekly uptrends and validate that scenario.  In the interim, they should not give weekly closes below 1262.8/GCZ & 16.640/SIZ.

They have flattened or turned down their weekly 21 MACs but the corresponding weekly 21 MARCs pinpoint Nov. 13 – 17 as the time when those 21 MACs are more likely to turn back up and stay up (barring a significant drop in the interim).

This action also signals congestion, another textbook example of the repeated divergence between the metals and the metals’ stocks.  In this case, the metals are marking time above recent lows as the metals’ stocks continue their declines (to new recent lows) into November – when larger-degree cycles bottom.

Consequently, the XAU (& HUI) remains much weaker than Gold & Silver, reinforcing that in recent weeks by turning the weekly trend down after turning the weekly 21 MAC down.  The one sign of an impending low, however, occurred when the XAU plummeted to its weekly HLS (weekly extreme downside target) at 81.09/XAU – setting the stage for an intermediate low in the ensuing 2 – 3 weeks.

That corroborated the 3 – 6 month outlook for the next multi-month low to take hold in Nov. 2017 – when monthly cycles converge.

On an intermediate price basis, several factors (monthly HLS, previous low, weekly trend, wave targets, potential monthly LLS, etc.) are projecting a drop to [reserved for subscribers]…

On an intermediate cycle basis, a multi-week low is likely on Nov. 6 – 10, the next phase of geometric cycles – 120 degrees from the July 10 low, 90 degrees from the Aug. 8 low, 60 degrees from the Sept. 7 high & 30 degrees from the Oct. 10 high.

A low on Nov. 6 – 10 would fulfill a ~1-month high-high-(low) Cycle Progression and a ~4-month (a very consistent cycle in metals since 2014) low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.  That ~4-month cycle includes lows on Nov. 11, March 9 & July 10 – focusing on the days around Nov. 10.

A daily close above [reserved for subscribers] would be the first indication that a multi-week low is taking hold.”

 

Gold & Silver have begun new rallies (that could ultimately last into late-Dec.) but could see some sideways action until Nov. 13 – 17, when a pivotal indicator should turn back up.  That is also when Gold stocks have the best potential to reverse back up… at least on a multi-week basis.

The XAU is still expected to drop to new multi-month lows in the interim, with a bottom ideally taking hold in the days surrounding Nov. 10.  The weekly HLS indicator projects a bottom by/on Nov. 13 – 17, at the very latest.  Cycles & the weekly 21 MAC (in Gold) are poised to turn back up on Nov. 13 – 17.  Multi-month buy signal also triggered in Gold on Oct. 2 – 6; see Oct. 2017 INSIIDE Track for details & strategy.

 

See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.