Gold & Silver Confirming Multi-Month Lows; Anticipated Anomaly Nears!
06/01/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Gold & Silver pulled back after reversing their daily trends up as Silver spiked higher into this week, the latest phases of corresponding ~6-week & ~12-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progressions. If a 1 – 2 month low is intact, however, this latest high could be shorter-lived and give way to a new rally sooner.
The recent low had Gold completing its third consecutive, 9 – 10-week decline without turning its weekly trend down – a reflection of wave equality and underlying resilience. On a 1 – 3 month basis, that is constructive – showing that Gold has fulfilled a normal multi-month decline without reversing its multi-month trend. (For now, that trend is neutral.)
If Gold and Silver were able to rally into late-June/early-July, it would perpetuate an over-arching 16-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and complete a .618 rebound of the recent ~10-week drop. It would also complete the 4th consecutive ~6-week advance since the late-Sept ’21 lows.
[Since March ’21, the time when Gold set its wave ‘4’ low, Gold has had three consecutive 12 – 14-week advances – overlapping those ~6-week advances. If it is entering another 12 – 14-week advance, Gold would rally right into Aug ’22 – when longer-term cycles peak. It could even accomplish that with a 6-week advance, a 1 – 2-week pullback, and then a 5th consecutive ~-6-week advance leading into Aug ’22.]
On a price basis, Gold projected an initial rally to ~1895/GCM where this first rally would equal the magnitude of the preceding Mar/Apr ’22 rally. Not surprisingly, it would also have Gold testing the level of the Mar ’22 low – a pivotal point of support turned into resistance.
While those patterns identify normal expected movement, Gold could show more bullish action by exceeding that resistance (and exceeding the magnitude of its previous rally) and confirm a new impulse rally. That would possess similarities to a 4-Shadow Signal and show underlying strength.
For the month of June ’22, Gold has multiple extreme upside targets around xxxx/GCQ. The first is the monthly LHR. The second is the current weekly LHR, which also represents an intermediate range target…
That dovetails with monthly cycles on Silver. First, there is the uncanny ~6-month cycle that produced a ~6-month high-low-low-low-low-high Cycle Progression when it peaked in March ’22 and fulfilled that cycle. The next phase is in Sept ’22 and should time another high. In between, it would not be surprising to see an intervening peak at the midpoint in June ’22. That could easily stretch into the second half of June ’22.
The XAU & HUI are trying to bounce after plunging from their April 18 highs – peaks that fulfilled a 29 – 31 week high-high-low-low-(high) Cycle Sequence (that has helped time most of the primary 3 – 6 month turning points of the past three years) and a ~10-month high (Aug ’20) – high (June ’21) – high (April ’22) Cycle Progression.
Both indexes dropped right back to their Jan ’22 lows (119.01/XAU & 236.37/HUI) – the decisive (make-or-break) level of intra-year trend support. They should not give weekly closes below those levels if any additional highs are to remain possible in 2022. In the short-term, they need daily closes above xxx.xx/XAU & xxx.xx/HUI to elevate their current rebounds to a higher level.”
Gold, Silver & XAU/HUI Indexes fulfilled downside objectives in price and time and triggered initial buy signals – validating decisive lows projected for May 13/16. Early-June could usher in larger rallies and hone outlook into Aug/Sept ’22 cycle highs. This period – from June – Aug ’22 – is when the long-awaiting anomaly has been forecast to take hold. Recent action is subtly validating that.
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Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.