Gold & Silver Enter Negative Week; Bitcoin Bearish into early-March; Stocks Poised to Plummet.
02-22-25 – “Stock indexes are fulfilling the outlook for a new decline to take hold this past week (after fulfilling multiple weekly trend signals) and likely accelerate lower… The S+P Midcap, Russell 2000 & DJTA continue to validate their late-November peaks and lead the way lower as the S+P 500 & NQ-100 corroborated with this past week’s action… Gold & Silver are entering a potentially negative week…
Stock Indices remain in the midst of multi-month trading ranges while showing progressive signs of topping (in leading/weaker indexes) and rolling over to the downside. On balance, the ensuing declines could last into late-March/early-April ’25…
The Dollar Index likely set a secondary top after surging to its weekly LHR (weekly extreme upside target at 109.78/DXH) and monthly SPR (109.83/DXH) to begin the month and reversing lower. It already fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for a multi-month (6 – 12 month) low in late-Sept/ early-Oct ‘24 followed by a rally into mid-January 2025… ushering in a pivotal reversal period.
The Dollar Index just closed below its rising weekly 21 High MAC but still needs a weekly close below 106.44/DXH to turn its weekly trend down and confirm that a multi-month top is in place…
The Euro is the inverse and needs a weekly close above 1.0557/ECH to turn the weekly trend up and project an overall advance into April ’25 – the next phase of a ~34-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a .618 rally in time.
The Yen remains in positive territory with an increasing probability for a larger surge – capable of reaching .6950 – .6980/JYH. It just turned its weekly trend to up, ushering in the likely time (the next 1 – 2 weeks) for an initial top followed by a multi-week reactive pullback.
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of multi-month tops after setting divergent highs while Bitcoin fulfilled a ~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression and a more precise 24 trading day low-low-low-high-high-high-(
Ether preceded that top and many cryptos have lost 40 – 55% from their recent peaks. A drop into early-March remains the primary objective for this decline and would perpetuate a 47 – 48-day low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression…
Gold & Silver remain near multi-month highs with Gold remaining in a multi-year & multi-month bull market as Silver is neutral on both counts (it would need a weekly close above its late-Oct ’24 peak to re-enter a multi-year uptrend).
Gold broke out to new highs in late-Jan/early-Feb, fulfilling its bullish weekly trend pattern and surging to its next upside range target at ~2950/ GCJ (2440 – 2610 – 2780 – 2950/GCJ). It is hesitating near there but has not shown any signs of reversing lower.
Silver has entered a more vulnerable period, based on its weekly 21 MARC, but would not show any signs of topping until – at the very least – a daily close below 32.40/SIH. Until that occurs, the multi-week uptrend remains intact.
Gold & Silver have traded in different wave structures since their late-Oct peaks with Silver in a more neutral wave structure and weekly trend structure while Gold remained/remains in a bullish weekly trend during and after its Nov ‘24 correction.
On a broader perspective, Silver remains in what is perceived to be a larger-magnitude ‘A-B-C’ correction that could continue to slowly but steadily evolve… Silver could ultimately match the duration of its wave II (May – Oct ’23) correction, as wave 4s (IV) and wave 2s often ‘tend toward equality’. A similar ~22-week correction would extend a final low into March 24 – 28, ’25.
Silver would again adhere to the ‘90/10 Rule of Cycles’ – experiencing a large percentage of the next decline near the end of the cycle. The intriguing aspect of that projection was/is that Silver continues to mirror the general action of the May ’23 correction… with the lion’s share of that drop in the final ~2 weeks…
On a larger cyclic basis, a Silver low in March/April ’25 would reinforce multi-year cycles that peak in March/April 2026, including a unique ~5-year cycle.”
Gold & XAU remain in weekly uptrends but are poised for corrections into late-Feb/early-March ‘25 before resuming their uptrends. Silver is rallying in a likely ‘B’ wave advance (that should ultimately give way to a ‘C’ wave decline below its Dec ’24 low and back to its early-Aug ’24 low) and continues to lag Gold.
A multi-month Silver low could/should stretch into April ’25 with the sharpest drop most likely in the final 1 – 2 weeks. Early-April ‘25 is also the time when a sharp stock market plunge could accelerate into a multi-month bottom.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
Gold’s mid-November ’24 low created a third successive (higher) low and signaled the onset of a new 3 – 6 month advance. The Dollar rallied into January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and ushering in the time for a projected major decline in 2025. See current publications for the most updated analysis.
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