Gold & Bitcoin Project Bullish June… But Gold Should Continue Rallying into July ’19. How High Could Each Anti-Dollar Vehicle Reach??
Gold & Bitcoin Project Bullish June… But Gold Should Continue Rallying into July ’19. How High Could Each Anti-Dollar Vehicle Reach??
05/30/19 INSIIDE Track: “Natural Year 2019 – 2020 (March 20/21, 2019 – March 20/21, 2020) began with indications of what might be expected in the next 10 months. (The Month of Aggression – the first month of the Natural Year from March 20 – April 19 – often sets the tone for the ensuing ~11 months.)
That period witnessed new terror attacks – in Sri Lanka, specifically targeted at Christians in houses of worship – and another synagogue attack in the U.S. While those attacks perpetuated what has been occurring in recent years, the more noteworthy events (not to downplay those attacks) were the ones that added more corroboration to what has been projected for 2018 – 2021 – leading into the 80-Year Cycle of War in 2021 [See June 2019 INSIIDE Track for details.]…
Gold & Silver remain in a corrective phase after fulfilling the initial phase of expectations for 3Q 2018 into late-2020/early-2021. That first phase was a projected rally from Gold’s Aug. ‘18 low into an uncanny convergence of weekly & monthly cycles in late-Feb./early-March 2019.
The Feb. 20, 2019 INSIIDE Track Report: Gold & Silver 2019 – Cycle Crescendo? revisited an uncanny 55 – 59 week cycle – unfolding since the major peak in Sept. 2011 – that was projecting a multi-month peak in late-Feb./early-March (the accompanying diagram is taken from that report).
The next phase of that cycle comes into play in March/April 2020 and should time another important peak. Gold & Silver surged into Feb. 20, fulfilling weekly & monthly cycles, attacking decisive (extreme) resistance levels and upside targets, and – in the case of Silver – generating daily & weekly trend sell signals at the peak.
That was projected to usher in a substantial correction with Gold dropping to 1270.0/GC (potentially as low as 1256.0/GC) & Silver triggering weekly & monthly trend signals that forecast a drop back to 14.350/SI or lower. Gold has fulfilled that repeatedly as Silver is nearing its Nov. ‘18 low.
Once again, this corrective phase coincided with a bullish phase in Bitcoin & cryptocurrency – the other primary Dollar alternatives. For all intents and purposes, the Dollar peaked in Dec. ‘18, the precise time that Bitcoin bottomed. However, Gold was already in an uptrend and took the lead at that time – surging into late-Feb. as the Dollar languished near its high and Bitcoin went through a bottoming phase.
When Bitcoin triggered an initial weekly buy signal, in early-to-mid-Feb, Gold made its final push upward as the Dollar remained in a trading range. Then Bitcoin took over, generating a second buy signal in mid-March and projecting an April/May surge. Since the Dollar remained steady, Gold needed to retreat to maintain this ‘a + b = c’ equation that has been described repeatedly.
In that equation, Bitcoin and Gold will only rally convincingly, and in tandem, during a solid downtrend in the Dollar (and vice-versa). Otherwise, there is only room for one anti-Dollar alternative to shine… and that continues to vacillate.
If Bitcoin fulfills cycle analysis for a peak in June ‘19, that would open up a new window of opportunity for Gold. And that dovetails nicely with cycle analysis that has been in place this year…
A second pivotal peak is expected in ~July ‘19 (+ or – 1 month) – the latest phase of a 17 – 18 month high-high cycle that has timed five successive highs, including the July ‘16 & Jan. ‘18 peaks. (Some metals and the XAU have a greater synergy of cycles in August 2019.) As long as Gold holds support at 1256 – 1270.0/GC, it has the potential to rally back to its late-Feb. high as part of the next overall advance.
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month traders & investors, after exiting long positions in late-Feb. w/avg. gains of about $11,500/contract, can be re-entering long positions (futures, cash, ETFs, etc.) when the Aug. futures are trading at 1274.5 down to 1256.5. Risk/exit on a weekly close below 1240.0/GCQ.
The XAU extended its decline and turned its weekly trend down before dropping into May 22, the latest phase of an 8-month high (Jan. ’18) – low (Sept. ’18) – low (May ’19) Cycle Progression, which included a 5-month rally and 3-month decline (.618 ratio).
It bottomed after a 3-month/90-degree decline from the late-Feb. peak (which arrived after a ~3-month/90-degree advance from the Nov. ‘18 low), inverting related cycle expectations.
That May 22 low set the stage for a 5-week rally that is expected to last into June 24 – 28, the first stage of an overall advance that could last into July/Aug. ‘19 and fulfill a 17 – 18 month high-high-high-high-(high) AND a ~9-month high-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. It would also fulfill a ~36-month high (Aug. ’13) – high (July/Aug. ’16) – (high) Cycle Progression.
A high on June 24 – 28 would perpetuate an 18-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression that is part of a larger 18 – 20-week Cycle Sequence dating back to Aug. 2016. It would also complete the fourth 5-week rally since the Sept. ‘18 low.
If the XAU can turn its weekly trend back up – while rallying into late-June – it would be positioned for a brief pullback and then another advance into the July/Aug. ‘19 cycles.”
Gold & Bitcoin benefitting from Dollar uncertainty. Both projected to rally into late-June with Gold likely to see additional surge after Bitcoin peaks. That would fulfill ongoing projections (since 2018) for an overall Gold advance into July 2019. The XAU corroborates that and remains on track for an overall surge into July/August ‘19 and ideally above 90.00. Silver is testing Major support and should rally.
3 – 6 month Gold traders were triggered back into long positions in late-April/early-May (near 1270.0/GC) to position for a new, potentially accelerated rally into July 2019. Gold’s ~7-week (and 14 & 21-week) concur.
When is July ’19 Peak in Gold Most Likely? What about Silver & XAU??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.