Gold & Bitcoin Vie for Currency Supremacy as Dollar Poised to Plunge.
02-06-25 – “Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin set its highest daily close on January 21st – 6 months/180 degrees from a previous high daily close (July 22nd) – but did not close above its mid-December (intraday) high, ushering in the potential for a larger-magnitude wave ‘5’ peak in late-2024.
Meanwhile, Ether had peaked in December after retesting its March ’24 (secondary) peak – while completing a ~3-year low (4Q ’18) – high (4Q ’21) – (high; 4Q 2024) Cycle Progression and signaling a multi-month (or longer) peak. It has already plunged back to its 2024 lows and remains weak.
A quick, sharp drop was expected to unfold leading into this week (potentially extending into Feb 10th) and has been initially fulfilled with several cryptos plunging in recent weeks. More downside is still possible in the short term (and an overall decline into early-March ’25 is still expected).
On a broader basis, Cryptos are steadily confirming ongoing analysis for a surge in 4Q 2024 followed by a downturn beginning in January 2025. That was projected to spur an initial drop into the period of Feb 5 – 10th (many cryptos just plummeted into February 4th with more downside possible) and ultimately into early-March ’25.
At its peak, Bitcoin fulfilled all of what was expected from a wave ‘V’ rally – a culminating advance that originated at the wave ‘IV’ low in July/August ‘24 in precise sync with its ~10-month high-low-low-low-(low; July/Aug ’24) Cycle Progression.
That August ’24 low spurred a multi-month surge into Nov/Dec 2024 – the same time of year in which Bitcoin set major highs in 2017 & 2021 and intervening lows in 2018 & 2022. An overlapping ~10.5-month/~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression allowed for a final divergent spike high in January, which took place on January 20/21st.
In doing so, Bitcoin fulfilled another form of wave similarity – rallying for the same magnitude ($55,00 – $60,000/BT) as it did in March ‘20 – April ‘21 AND in Nov ‘22 – March ‘24. The peak near 108,000/BT precisely matched the magnitude of its previous (‘22 – ‘24) advance… a trio of similar advances that increased the likelihood for a major peak.
That crescendo was/is expected to time a major peak in cryptos and occurred precisely with a major bullish fundamental – the inauguration of President Trump.
Markets usually top on good news and bottom on bad news.
From the intraday peaks to Monday’s intraday low, Bitcoin dropped ~15% in two weeks. However, that is nothing compared to the losses in other cryptos as Ether, Litecoin & XRP plunged ~45% from their highs, Solana gave up over 40% and Dogecoin has plummeted over 55%. It sure looks like a 5th wave top is intact and a larger magnitude correction is underway, in sync with related analysis and cycles from 4Q 2024.
Gold & Silver remain divergent with Silver in a multi-month trading range, ushered in before and after both metals fulfilled multi-month cycle highs in late-October ’24.
Gold & Silver have traded in different wave structures – a type of divergence that has become the norm in precious metals. Silver is in a more bearish setup – both wave structure and weekly trend structure – as Gold did not turn negative and has rallied back to/above its Oct ’24 high, fulfilling its weekly trend structure.
Gold has produced daily closes above 2846.6/GCJ – its late-October high – showing initial signs of breaking above a ~3-month trading range – but needs a weekly close above that level to confirm. (This would reinforce the overall bullish outlook for 2025 while clarifying where the next pullback low should find support.)
In contrast, Silver turned its weekly trend down in December (Gold could only neutralize its weekly uptrend, portending a rally back to its high) and has been rebounding since then – retracing .618 of its late-Oct – late-Dec ’24 decline (at 33.09/SIH) and testing 1 – 2 month resistance at 33.21 – 33.33/SIH…
Silver has also rebounded into the ideal time for Gold to set a multi-week peak (Feb 3 – 7th) – fulfilling a ~14-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that is the midpoint of a related 27 – 28-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – projecting a more significant peak for the first half of May 2025.
Those 13 – 14-week & 27 – 28-week cycles are part of the web of related cycles that have governed Gold for the past decade – divisions of the ~12.5 month/ ~54-week high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct 2024) Cycle Progression that pinpointed the October ’24 peak and projected a future peak for Oct/Nov 2025.
A peak at this time would also arrive ~6 & ~9 months from the early-Aug & early-May ’24 lows.
On a 1 – 2 week basis, Gold & Silver would not turn their trends down until daily closes below 2802.0/GCJ & 31.61/SIH.
If Silver fulfills its outlook, and drops below its late-December low… Gold would likely pull back to a higher low… before both rally into the next intermediate cycle peak in early-May ’25. That would perpetuate this ongoing divergence where Gold rallies to higher highs (and Silver to lower highs), leading into cycle peaks and then Silver drops to lower lows (and Gold sets higher lows) leading into cycle lows…
The XAU & HUI remain in multi-week uptrends but have entered the time when the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARCs will transition from being supportive (while trading beneath current price levels) to applying downward pressure from above.
Those 21 MARCs have begun a 6 – 7-week surge that could soon exceed current price levels and begin to have a negative impact. As soon as the 21 High MARC exceeds the current week’s high (most likely in 1 – 2 weeks), it would then force the direction of the weekly 21 High MAC to turn down. The same would be true of the 21 Low MAC.
In 4 of the last 5 years, the XAU has set a 3 – 6 month (or longer) low in the February/March time frame… and is on track to do something similar in 2025. All of those lows took hold between mid-February & mid-March, creating a consistent annual (3600) cycle that could be repeated.”
Gold, Silver & XAU are signaling vastly different outlooks with Gold remaining bullish and reinforcing its multi-month & multi-year uptrend while Silver is rallying in a likely ‘B’ wave advance (that should eventually give way to a ‘C’ wave decline back to its early-Aug ’24 low). The XAU is projecting a pullback low in Feb/March ‘25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
It’s mid-November ’24 low created a third successive (higher) low and signaled the onset of a new 3 – 6 month advance that could stretch into early-May ‘25. The Dollar rallied into January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and setting the stage for a major decline in 2025… that has likely begun. See current publications for the most updated analysis.
INSIIDE Track Trading – Subscriptions Order Page
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.