Gold Breaking Out; Silver & XAU Buy Signals Project Similar Surges… into Late-March ‘24!
03-04-24 – “Gold & Silver are surging after Silver held intra-year trend support for 6 consecutive weeks as Gold completed a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high… and then both triggered new buy signals in mid-February.
Gold continues to trace out a bullish weekly & monthly 21 MAC scenario that has been validated by recent action. On a weekly basis, Gold’s October – Dec. ’23 surge had it completing an initial reversal – closing above its weekly 21 High MAC and surging to 2 – 3 month upside targets as it turned the direction of that 21 MAC up.
That is often followed by a reaction back to its weekly 21 Low MAC as a market traces out a larger-magnitude wave ‘2’ in an ‘a-b-c’ structure. Gold did exactly that as it retraced to its now-ascending weekly 21 Low MAC (2000.6/GCJ) on February 14 and immediately reversed higher, preventing its intra-year trend from turning down.
Its weekly trend pattern also signaled a low at that time and contributed to the buy signal triggered then. (That coincided with Gold holding above its rising monthly 21 High MAC – a very bullish pattern.) Gold quickly rallied and closed last week above its ascending weekly 21 High MAC – projecting a rally to new highs and beyond.
Based on multiple wave objectives (rally from Oct ’23 low = Oct ’22 – May ’23 rally; rally from Feb ’24 low = Oct – Dec ’23 rally, etc.), Gold could see a surge to ~2300/GCJ in the coming months. It is also a pair of long-term wave objectives and would allow the current advance (from Sept/Oct 2022) to double the magnitude of the 2015 – 2018 advance and be .786 (2DGR) the magnitude of the 2018 – 2020 rally.
Additionally, April Gold has traded in consistent ~150.0/GCJ ranges since November 2022, with parameters at ~1850, ~2000 & ~2150/GCJ. If it breaks out to the upside, as expected, the next range trading target would be ~2300.0/GCJ.
On a 1 – 2 week basis, a surge back to ~2170/GCJ – where Gold’s weekly LHR intersects its all-time intraday peak and range target – appears likely. If it does that in the coming days, Gold would provide a perfect form of symmetry – first declining for ~22 weeks from ~2160 to ~1860/GCJ and then rallying for ~22 weeks, from ~1860 back up to ~2160/GCJ.
Silver needs a weekly close above 23.76/SIK to reverse the weekly trend up & confirm a multi-month bottom. That would also generate a range-trading signal with targets at ~25.25 & ~26.75/SIK. Silver turned its weekly 21 MAC up last week but needs a weekly close above ~24.40/SIK to validate.
An initial spike higher into March 6 – 8th could now be seen. Daily & intra-month trends should help hone this analysis. Already, the daily charts are providing some clues about when a brief pullback could bottom (if an initial peak is set later this week) and give way to another surge.
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver around 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk daily closes below the mid-Feb. lows. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The XAU & HUI retested their October ’23 lows and held, providing the potential for a new multi-month rally to follow. [The Weekly Re-Lay detailed a related buy signal generated in late-February.] They appear poised to surge in the coming weeks, in sync with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs.
The action of the past 3 weeks has been similar to the three weeks leading into early-March 2023, before the XAU embarked on a 5-week surge. In both cases, the XAU suffered a final sharp sell-off for ~2 weeks, bounced, then retested that low ~2 weeks later.
In 2023, that subsequently led to an initial surge of ~16.00/XAU points during the first 7 trading days and then an overall advance of ~35.00/XAU points over a ~5-week period.
2024 is poised to see something similar.
The most bullish thing the XAU could do in March is to rally and close the month above 126.30/XAU. That would turn the intra-year trend up (closing above the January ’24 high) at the same time it is closing above its descending monthly 21 High MAC.
If that occurs, the monthly 21 High MAC would almost assuredly turn up in April ’24 – a textbook reversal sequence – since the inversely-correlated 21 High MARC plunges to 114.97/XAU in April ’24.
On a near-term basis, a rally above 115.00/XAU – in the coming days – would turn multiple indicators positive and likely trigger more upside momentum while confirming the buy signal triggered at 106.00 down to 102.60/XAU.”
Gold & Silver are confirming their mid-February ’24 buy signals, projecting accelerated surges in March 2024. An overall (intermediate) advance is projected from the mid-February cycle lows into late-March 2024 and up to key price targets (with Gold surging to new all-time highs).
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! This should have a dramatic impact on the US Dollar in 2024/2025. March 2024 should provide the next corroboration to that outlook. Gold is acting as the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’ and is poised to break out to the upside in March 2024!
How Does Gold Outlook Portend Related Shocks in Other Key Markets??
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside (in 2024) following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
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Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.