Gold Bullish as Silver Projects Drop into Late-March/early-April; Stocks Poised to Plunge.
02-26-25 – “The crypto market is doing precisely what was forecast for 1Q 2025 – plunging first into early-Feb ’25 and then into early-March ’25…
1-05-25 – “Looking out into 2025, Bitcoin has the greatest synergy of intermediate cycle lows in early-Feb & early-March ‘25 – when a corrective wave(s) could bottom.”
1-11-25 – “Bitcoin & Ether… have initially sold off but need daily closes below their December ’24 lows to elevate these declines… Ultimately, Bitcoin could drop back to 72,000 – 74,500/BT.”
1-15-25 – “Ultimately, Bitcoin could drop back to 72,000 – 74,500/BT with Ether projecting a drop back toward ~2,200 that could last into early-March ‘25.”
2-05-25 – “Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin set its highest daily close on January 21st – 6 months/180 degrees from a previous high daily close… a larger-magnitude wave ‘5’ peak.
Meanwhile, Ether had peaked in December after retesting its March ’24 (secondary) peak – while completing a ~3-year low (4Q ’18) – high (4Q ’21) – (high; 4Q 2024) Cycle Progression. It has already plunged back to its 2024 lows and remains weak.
A quick, sharp drop was expected to unfold leading into this week… and has been initially fulfilled with several cryptos plunging in recent weeks. More downside is still possible… an overall decline into early-March ’25 is still expected”
2-08-25 – “Cryptos are fulfilling projections for sharp declines into early-February… Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping…
Ether peaked in Dec after retesting its March ’24 (secondary) peak… and already plunged back to its 2024 lows and remains weak as cryptos confirm ongoing analysis for a surge in 4Q 2024 followed by a drop in 1Q ‘25.”
With Bitcoin now plunging ~25% from its January 20th intraday peak, it is validating the outlook for 1Q 2025… with ramifications that could reverberate throughout the year.
As previously discussed, the 2020’s possess some eerie similarities to the 1920’s and the 1990’s.
Of course, history never repeats… it only rhymes.
No one should never expect a carbon copy of what took place in the past. However, the lessons of history should be learned and applied in the present.
In all three cases, specific sectors of the market became exorbitantly overvalued. And, in each case, there were derivatives created to keep the party going and allow the most inexperienced and uninformed ‘investors’ to jump in near the top.
In the 1920’s, it was shell companies (modern day ‘funds’) that would purchase stocks (their only holding) and then issue shares. Once the prices of those shares (funds) were driven to unaffordable levels, new shell companies (funds of funds, so to speak) were created that would only purchase shares in the first level shell companies… and then issue their own shares.
And the party kept on going!
In the 1990’s, there were many parallels connected to the dot.com craze. One of them was the emergence of ETFs and index funds.
A perfect example of similar timing involves the QQQ, which was launched in March 1999… just in time for Joe Public to pile in to the dot.com craze and then watch its value plummet ~84% – from a peak of 120.50 in March 2000 to a low of 19.76 in Oct 2002… a plunge that many never recovered from.
In late-2023/early-2024, the SEC approved the launch of multiple Bitcoin & Crypto ETFs. In the final months of 2024, the public dove in with reckless abandon once they felt confident the crypto President would chauffer them on a ride down Easy Street.
Already, many of those ETFs (Ethereum-based ones) have lost over 45% of their value.
However, that is not the only ‘derivative’ created for novice and naïve ‘investors’. Those speculators were also invited/enticed into piling into other ‘shell’ investments (for lack of a better term) – like NFTs and meme coins. The crypto carnival was in full swing in late-2024 & peaked exactly when those speculators expected exponential gains in their accounts.
The more things change, the more they stay the same!
So, what now?
First of all, this does NOT imply – in any way, shape or form – that cryptos are not viable in the digital age. And, it does not imply they are going anywhere.
Tech stocks did not disappear after related stocks & indexes plummeted 80+% in 2000 – 2002.
However, the weaker ones were ‘culled’ and a new wave of stronger & more resilient companies slowly took hold and began to build a base… over a period of many years.
However, it did take over 16 years – until Sept 2016 – for the NQ-100 to exceed its March 2000 peak. The QQQ waited until December 2016 to do the same.
And, for further reference, the entire rally from 2002 into 2007 – before another crash in those indexes & ETFs took hold – had the NQ-100 & QQQ rebounding less than 50% of their 2000 – 2002 declines… and peaking out at about 40% of their 2000 peak values.
That’s just one example of how the markets deal with a bubble.
The good news is that every recovery, in recent decades, has been quicker than the one before. The bad news is that the ‘bursting’ is (likely) not yet complete.
Depending on how long those crypto prices stay depressed, or locked in a trading range well below their highs, the secondary and tertiary ramifications could lead to some unintended consequences. One of those could be in equity markets…
Stock Indices remain in the midst of multi-month trading ranges while showing progressive signs of topping and rolling over to the downside. On balance, the ensuing declines (at least, initial multi-month declines) could last into late-March/early-April ’25…
The S+P 500 powerfully validated expectations for a reversal lower last week. It had twice neutralized its weekly downtrend as of Feb 14th – pinpointing Feb 18 – 21st as the ideal (textbook) time for a spike high and reversal lower.
That is exactly what took place with the S+P 500 (and other indexes) triggering a weekly 2 Close Reversal lower in the process.
At the same time, the NQ-100 cash index finally spiked to new highs – fulfilling its weekly trend indicator (the only one that had stayed positive) and pinpointing the time for a new multi-week top.
Meanwhile, the DJTA triggered an outside-week/2 Close Reversal lower and the next phase of a textbook weekly 21 MAC Reversal sequence.
In the ideal (‘textbook’) technical scenario, that S+P 500 peak would spur a 1 – 2 week drop to ~xxxx/ESH as part of a larger decline capable of reaching xxxx/ ESH in a short period of time.
If it makes it to xxxx/ESH (or lower) this week, the S+P 500 could attack xxxx/ESH in the first half of March (potentially during the first week of March ‘25).
Several indexes are within striking distance of turning their intra-year trends down – needing a weekly close below their January ’25 lows to do so. As described many times in recent weeks, the DJTA is now in the ideal setup to break to new multi-month lows and (likely) accelerate lower…
Bitcoin & Ether are fulfilling analysis for sharp sell-offs into early-February and then into early-March. A drop into early-March would perpetuate a 47 – 48-day low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression as well as many corroborating cycles and timing indicators.
Bitcoin is attacking initial support at its rising weekly 21 Low MAC (~84,800/BT) but could ultimately plunge as low as 72,000 – 74,000/BT if/when it gives a weekly close below that level.
Gold & Silver are diverging with Gold remaining near its all-time high while Silver remains neutral on a multi-year & multi-month basis and is fulfilling the potential for a new decline. Gold broke out to new highs in late-Jan/early-Feb, fulfilling its bullish weekly trend pattern, but has hesitated near its upside range target at ~2950/GCJ…
Gold & Silver have traded in different wave structures since their late-Oct peaks with Silver in a more neutral wave structure and weekly trend structure while Gold remained/remains in a bullish weekly trend during and after its Nov ‘24 correction.
On a broader perspective, Silver remains in what is perceived to be a larger-magnitude ‘A-B-C’ correction that could continue to slowly but steadily evolve into/through March ‘25.
Currently, the primary thing that would alter that is a weekly close above 33.65/SIH.
Several pertinent factors could still have a marked influence on Silver’s action, including these two potentials:
- Silver could ultimately match the duration of its wave II (May – Oct ’23) correction, as wave 4s (IV) and wave 2s often ‘tend toward equality’. A similar ~22-week correction would extend a final low into March 24 – 28, ’25.
- Silver could again adhere to the ‘90/10 Rule of Cycles’ – experiencing a large percentage of the next decline near the end of the cycle.
The intriguing aspect of that projection was/is that Silver continues to mirror the general action of the May ’23 correction…
On a larger cyclic basis, a Silver low in March/April ’25 would reinforce multi-year cycles that peak in March/April 2026, including a unique ~5-year cycle.
As stated last week, the ideal scenario would have Silver begin a new sell-off in the current week and then [reserved for subscribers].”
Gold remains bullish as Silver remains neutral, rallying in a likely ‘B’ wave advance that is projected to ultimately give way to a ‘C’ wave decline below its Dec ’24 low and back to its early-Aug ’24 low. A multi-month Silver low could/should stretch into April ’25 with the sharpest drop most likely in the final 1 – 2 weeks leading into that low.
Early-April ‘25 is also the time when a sharp stock market plunge could accelerate into a multi-month bottom. The final indexes – S+P 500 & NQ-100 – fulfilled their upside objectives on Feb 18/19th and quickly triggered weekly sell signals that reinforce the outlook for 20 – 25% plunges into early-April ’25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
Gold’s mid-November ’24 low created a third successive (higher) low and signaled the onset of a new 3 – 6 month advance. The Dollar rallied into January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and ushering in the time for a projected major decline in 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is fulfilling its related outlook for a major sell-off in 1Q 2025 that could attack decisive support near 74,000/BTC before a bottom takes hold.
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