Gold & Silver on Track for Rally into May 3 – 5; Buy Signals Intact.

04-08-23 – “By turning its weekly trend up, Silver added confirmation to analysis it completed a larger-magnitude ‘2’ wave pullback in early-March ‘23 while fulfilling a ~6-month high-high-(low) Cycle Progression & completing a 50% retracement in time (4 months/18 weeks up, 2 months/9 weeks down).

It also ended the week by turning its intra-year trend up, closing above the early-Jan ’23 highs – exactly 3 months/90 degrees later.  A future, more significant peak is still expected in early-May ’23 – fulfilling a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold and a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver.

Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks, when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22) if it extends its overall advance into early-May ’23.

And that would arrive ~6-months/~180 degrees before a more significant cycle peak in early-Nov ’23 (see INSIIDE Tracks for add’l details).

This action further validates the 1 – 2 year trend, structure and outlook… linked to what was projected to be major lows set in the final third of 2022 – Silver in Sept ‘22 and Gold in Nov/Dec ‘22… and the onset of new rallies that should ultimately take Gold to new all-time highs.

One intriguing aspect of this latest surge is that Gold has nearly reached its all-time high while the Dollar Index has barely begun to decline.  If the 1 – 3 year outlook is accurate (for a major top and onset of a multi-year decline in the Dollar), and Gold trades at an inverse correlation for at least some of that time, it could have dramatic implications for precious metals.  That also coincides with when a second phase of inflation has been projected.

 

Gold & Silver surged to new highs but now need daily closes above their April 5 highs (2049.2/GCM & 25.295/SIK) to turn the new intra-month trends up and project higher levels into mid-April.  If that fails to occur, they could see a pullback into mid-month before a new rally into early-May ’23.

The XAU & HUI surged to new intra-year highs, further validating their monthly trend signals and the lows set on Mar 6 – 10, ’23 in fulfillment of the 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that has governed these indexes for a couple years.  They have just corroborated those cycles by turning their intra-year trends up.

That early-March ‘23 low also fulfilled what the monthly trend had projected…  In Jan ’23, both indexes turned their monthly trends up – a lagging/ confirming indicator that often reverses as a market is initially peaking. That is usually followed by a reactive 1 – 3-month pullback before a new advance – and the resumption of the uptrend – takes hold.

By correcting into early-March, these indexes fulfilled that scenario while reaching downside targets and monthly HLS levels (extreme downside targets for those months) – setting the stage for a ‘2’ wave low and the onset of a new impulse wave.

Similar to what was just described for the monthly trend, these indexes just turned their weekly trends up – a signal that often triggers an initial high and reactive pullback… before a new rally.

Platinum & Palladium are hesitating after Platinum rallied to its year-opening range (low of first three weeks of 2023) while neutralizing its weekly downtrend multiple times.  It was able to turn the weekly trend up but still needs a weekly close above 1022/PLN to neutralize the intra-year downtrend.  A more bullish scenario would unfold if it can give a weekly close above 1040/PLN.

The next multi-month high is likely in early/mid-May ‘23, the latest phase of the 18 – 19 week low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that timed the early-Jan ’23 peak.”

Gold & Silver have steadily advanced since fulfilling the 1 – 2 year outlook for lows in Sept ’22 (SI) and Nov/Dec ’22 (GC).  At that time, they entered the ideal setup – based on inflationary factors (slowing), interest rates, and the Dollar (peaking) – for the onset of a very bullish 1 – 2 year period in precious metals.  Platinum is signaling something similar.  2023/24 holds the potential for some abrupt surprises (in and out of the markets) for precious metals, with multiple advances projected.

The second advance was expected to begin in early-March ‘23, after metals completed ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave pullbacks (following the initial advances), and to last into early-May ’23 (May 3 – 5) when the next intermediate high is most likely.  Corresponding signals projected strong rallies in March & April ’23… coinciding with the outlook for bottoming Bonds & Notes, Cryptos and other markets.

The XAU & HUI are similar and projected a multi-month low by/on March 6 – 10 – perpetuating an uncanny ~23-Week Cycle.  The monthly trend projects a strong rally to new intra-year highs to follow.  Gold triggered a convincing weekly buy signal on March 3, ’23 and then triggered a corroborating daily buy signal on the March 8 close… confirming the outlook for a new surge in March/April ’23.

How High Could Gold & Silver (&XAU) Reach in 2023?  Is a New MAJOR Bull Market in store??

 

Will the Outlook for Bonds (Bottom in ~March ’23) & Interest Rates Concur?

 

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.