Gold Confirming Low as Silver Projects Surge to ~24.50/SI. XAU Could Reach 137.
11/19/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Gold & Silver fulfilled bullish cycles into mid-month and could see additional surges… That allowed it to exceed the duration of the July 21 – Aug 10 rally, reinforcing underlying strength. It also allowed Silver to complete successive rallies of equal duration (33 days each; Sept 1 – Oct 4 & Oct 14 – Nov 16) and initially peak ~3 months/~90 degrees from its Aug 15 ’22 high.
Gold attacked its intra-year trend resistance (Jan ’22 low) at 1793.5 – 1795.0/GCZ and then pulled back. At the same time, Silver reached its initial upside target and intra-year trend resistance at 22.20 – 22.50/SIZ and pulled back. These levels are likely to be penetrated during the next rally…
Considering weekly cycles in Silver & Platinum – both of which have been arguing for a rally into late-Nov/early-Dec, Gold could stretch the current advance into Nov 28 – 30, the next phase of a 55 – 58 day high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
That would exceed the duration of each intermediate rally since early-March, fulfilling the third phase of its July/Aug 4-Shadow Signal (it has already fulfilled the first two phases by subsequently dropping to new lows and then generating the largest magnitude rally since before March ’22).
Silver fulfilled analysis for an overall advance from Sept 1 into mid-Nov but could still stretch this rally into a convergence of weekly cycles in late-Nov/early-Dec ’22.
A rally into Nov 25/28 would fulfill a ~6-week low–low-(high) Cycle Progression while matching the 12-week duration of the Dec ’21 – Mar ’22 advance and rebounding 50% of the duration of the Mar – Sept ’22 decline (Nov 28 is precise date).
If Silver is to reinforce its expected strength, it would likely exceed that time frame… The next rally could catapult Silver above 23.00/SIZ and ultimately to 24.50 – 24.90/SIZ. Since early-July, Silver has traced out an inverted head-and-shoulders with the neckline at ~21.00/SIZ (left shoulder = July 14 penultimate low, head = Sept 1 ultimate low, right shoulder = Oct 14 secondary low) and the resulting upside target at ~24.50/SIZ.
24.50/SIZ is also where Silver initially found support after its early-March peak. And 24.93/SIZ is final intra-year trend resistance (Jan ’22 high).
The XAU & HUI rallied into mid-Nov, fulfilling their intra-month uptrends and attacking initial upside targets. They pulled back and neutralized their daily uptrends multiple times but did not turn them down. Considering they remained in intra-month uptrends, they could now see another surge into Nov 28 – 30, which would still be fulfilling a ~7-month high-high-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Sequence.
That could propel them up to (or above) secondary up upside targets at 130 – 137/XAU & 245 – 251/HUI…
Platinum & Palladium remain on divergent paths but both pulled back after rallying into mid-month. Their daily trend patterns, as well as Platinum’s intra-month trend, daily & weekly 21 MAC trends, and intermediate wave structure could spur another sharp rally into Nov 28 – 30.
Palladium remains in a ~6-month trading range between ~1800 & ~2300/PAZ.”
Silver is confirming analysis for a 6 – 12 month (or longer) low in Sept ’22 – when Silver was expected to overtake Gold and sees stronger rallies due to multiple factors. Silver’s initial intermediate advance is projected to take it up to 24.50 – 25.00/SI before the end of 2022. Gold retested its late-Sept ’22 low and held in early-Nov, triggering an intermediate buy signal in the days that followed.
The XAU & HUI are corroborating this outlook and on track for surges above 130/XAU & 250/HUI. Platinum is showing similar signs of developing strength and should rally through November, potentially surging above 1100/PL.
How Soon Could Silver Reach ~24.50/SI Target?
What Does Gold’s 4Q ’22 Cycle Low Portend into 1Q ‘23?
What is Significance of Cycle Highs in Jan & late-Feb/early-March ’23?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.