Gold & XAU Poised for Multi-Week Pullbacks as Silver Congests; Dollar Reversing Lower.
02-15-25 – “The Dollar Index likely set a secondary top after surging to its weekly LHR (weekly extreme upside target at 109.78/DXH) and monthly SPR (109.83/DXH) to begin the month and reversing lower. After a quick plunge, it bounced into Feb 12th and right to its declining daily 21 High MAC before resuming its decline.
That quickly led to a daily close below 107.15/ DXH – the signal needed to turn the new intra-month trend down and confirm a new multi-week top. The Dollar Index has already fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for a multi-month (6 – 12 month) low in late-September/early-October ‘24 followed by a rally into mid-January 2025.
It needs to turn its weekly trend down – with a weekly close below 106.44/DXH – to confirm that a multi-month top is in place.
The Euro is the inverse and rallied after testing its January low (in early-Feb) – turning its intra-month trend up while signaling a bullish daily 21 MAC sequence. That reinforces analysis for a Jan/Feb ’25 low – fulfilling a 28 – 29-month cycle.
A weekly close above 1.0557/ECH is needed to turn the weekly trend up and project an overall advance into April ’25 – the next phase of a ~34-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a .618 rally in time.
The Yen remains in positive territory with an increasing probability for a larger surge – likely reaching .6950 – .6980/JYH – in the month of February. A weekly close above .6652/JYH is needed to turn the weekly trend up and confirm.
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin set its highest daily close on January 21st – 6 months/180 degrees from a previous high daily close (July 22nd) – ushering in the potential for a larger-magnitude wave ‘5’ peak as it fulfilled a ~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression.
A drop into late-February/early-March remains the primary objective for this decline…
Gold & Silver remain divergent with Silver in a multi-month trading range, ushered in before and after both metals fulfilled multi-month cycle highs in late-October ’24.
Gold broke out to new highs in late-January/early-February, fulfilling its bullish weekly trend pattern and surging to its next upside range target at ~2950/GCJ (2440 – 2610 – 2780 – 2950/GCJ).
Gold & Silver have traded in different wave structures since their late-Oct peaks with Silver in a more bearish or neutral wave structure and weekly trend structure while Gold remained/remains in a bullish weekly trend during and after its November correction.
Now that Gold has fulfilled its weekly trend pattern and attacked range resistance, it ushers in the time for a 1 – 2 week correction. A drop to ~xxxx/GCJ would fulfill several near-term targets & support levels…
In contrast, Silver remains in a 6 – 7 month trading range, unable to neutralize its weekly downtrend.
Silver is in the midst of a 7-week period when the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC is surging – a scenario that could prompt the related 21 MAC to turn down if the level of that 21 MARC exceeds the level of current price…
On a broader perspective, Silver remains in what is perceived to be a larger-magnitude ‘A-B-C’ correction that could continue to slowly but steadily evolve as Gold moves higher…
On a larger cyclic basis, a Silver low in March/April ’25 would reinforce multi-year cycles that peak in March/April 2026, including a unique ~5-year cycle…
Gold & Silver remain in multi-week uptrends and would not turn those trends neutral until daily closes below 2876.0/GCJ & 32.40/SIH. Gold did turn its intra-month uptrend back to neutral – while Silver’s intra-month trend has remained neutral all month – hinting that a 1 – 2 week top could be taking hold.
The XAU & HUI remain in multi-week uptrends after turning their weekly trends back up in mid-January. They have entered the time when the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARCs could shift from being supportive to applying downward pressure if they overtake the levels of current prices.
The XAU retested monthly resistance (162.82 – 164.69) while attacking weekly resistance (166.37 – 167.21) and then triggered an outside-day/2 Close Reversal lower – signaling (at least) a 3 – 5 day peak.
In the coming week, the 21 High MARC will jump to 168.71/XAU, potentially forcing the corresponding weekly 21 High MAC to turn down. If the XAU drops below 160.43 (weekly 21 Low MARC), the related weekly 21 Low MAC would turn down.
This is occurring in lockstep with the recent mid-month peak and reversal lower, setting the stage for a potential 2 – 4 week correction. A daily close below 158.00/XAU would signal additional weakness.
On a broader basis, this past week’s high perpetuates a ~4-month low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression that projects a future multi-week high for June 2025.”
Gold & XAU remain in weekly uptrends but are poised for multi-week corrections before resuming their uptrends. Silver is rallying in a likely ‘B’ wave advance (that should ultimately give way to a ‘C’ wave decline below its Dec ’24 low and back to its early-Aug ’24 low) and continues to lag Gold. A multi-month Silver low could/should stretch into April ’25 and reinforce future cycles in April ’26.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
Gold’s mid-November ’24 low created a third successive (higher) low and signaled the onset of a new 3 – 6 month advance. The Dollar rallied into January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and ushering in the time for a projected major decline in 2025. See current publications for the most updated analysis.
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