Gold & Silver Reinforce 2025 Outlook; Dollar & Stocks Vulnerable as Euro Rallies.
03-13-25 – “2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin… a market that has exhibited a close connection to specific stock indexes.
2025/2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last significant recession in the US… and has been projected (since 2023) to time the next major recession – making this cycle accurate 13 of the 14 times it has recurred since the founding of America (1940/1941 was the only exception).
2025/26 has been forecast, for the past two years, to trigger the second major wave of stagflation in the US (linked to diverse cycles) – a topic that is suddenly being discussed in economic circles (cycles and technical analysis usually identify these things long before the fundamentals become obvious).
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000. It (2025) was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.
From a much broader perspective, there are some unusual (though limited) parallels between the current markets and a key aspect of the 1920’s and a different (key) aspect of the 1990’s. This was discussed in the Feb 19 & 26, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay Alerts and in the March ’25 INSIIDE Track.
If a 1 – 2 month low is set in the March/April time frame (most synergistic convergence of cycles is in late-March/early-April ’25), it would add another level of corroboration to future cycles bottoming in July ’25. More on that to follow…
The Dollar Index has stretched its decline… On a longer-term basis, the January ’25 peak is corroborating the potential for a 2025 sell-off AND the possibility for a 6 – 12 month or multi-year low to take hold in late-2025. In order to fulfill that, the Dollar Index would have to fulfill a number of technical and cyclical criteria along the way. One of those would be to drop below the mid-2023 low.
Here are a few timing factors that could usher in a decisive low in 4Q 2025… ideally in November ’25:
- A drop into November 2025 would create a form of wave symmetry with the Dollar Index declining for ~10 months – from its January ’25 high – and matching the ~10-month duration of the Sept ’22 – July ’23 decline.
- A low in Nov ’25 would fulfill a ~14-month low (July ’23) – low (Sept ’24) – (low; Nov ’25) Cycle Progression.
- A low in 4Q ’25 would fulfill a ~9-quarter low (2Q ’21) – low (3Q ’23) – (low; 4Q ’25) Cycle Progression.
- Other timing relationships & indicators point to 4Q ’25 as the ideal time for a 1 – 2 year low.
The Euro turned its weekly trend up, confirming the January ’25 cycle low and projecting a rally, on balance, into April ’25 – when a ~34-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression recurs…
Gold & Silver remain in near-term & 1 – 2 month uptrends with Gold rallying to new highs in what could be a wave ‘5’ of a 5-wave advance from its November low (a ~4-month advance that is close to matching the duration of its previous ~4-month advance in June – October ’24)…
Gold remains on track, in sync with its ~27-week & ~54-week cycles, to see two decisive peaks – first in early-May ’25 and then in November ’25.
Silver rallied back to its mid-February high but did not (yet) close above it. That perpetuates the congestion that has been in force in Silver for several months. Since its December ’25 low, Silver has traded in a pair of ~2.500/SIK ranges – first from ~29.50 – ~32.00/SIK and then from ~32.00 – ~34.50/SIK.
It is bumping back up against that ~34.50/SIK resistance and would need a daily & weekly close above it to show a breakout to the upside. If that fails to occur, Silver could still see a sell-off in the second half of March – leading to a more significant low.
On a larger cyclic basis, a Silver low in March/April ’25 would reinforce multi-year cycles peaking in March/April 2026, including a unique ~5-year cycle evolving since 2001.
The XAU & HUI remain in weekly uptrends and have spiked to new multi-month highs while remaining below their October ’24 peaks.”
Gold & Silver remain in 1 – 2 month uptrends within divergent wave structures. Gold is bullish while Silver is rallying in a likely ‘B’ wave advance that is projected to give way to a ‘C’ wave decline back to its early-Aug ’24 low (~27.60/SIK) before a multi-month correction is complete. A multi-month Silver low could/should stretch into April ’25 with the sharpest drop most likely in the final 1 – 2 weeks leading into that low.
Early-April ‘25 also remains the time when a sharp stock market plunge could accelerate into a multi-month bottom. The final indexes – S+P 500 & NQ-100 – fulfilled their upside objectives on Feb 18/19th and quickly triggered weekly sell signals that reinforce the outlook for 20 – 25% plunges into early-April ’25 – with daily & weekly cycles most synergistic on April 3rd – 7th, ‘25.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
Gold’s mid-November ’24 low projected a subsequent rally into late-April/early-May ’25, which remains on track. The Dollar peaked in January ’25 – fulfilling its 3 – 4 month outlook and ushering in the time for a sharp (projected) decline in 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is fulfilling its related outlook for a major sell-off in 1Q 2025 that could attack decisive support near 74,500/BTC before a bottom takes hold.
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