Gold & Silver Enter Pivotal Period; Early-Aug & Early-Nov ’23 = Crucial Cycles.
07-12-23 – “For almost two months, the Weekly Re-Lay described how the ideal scenario for Gold & Silver was to see a rally into – and multi-month peak during – early-May… ideally on May 3 – 5, ’23.
The corresponding cycles were often detailed and related price objectives also came into focus (2080 – 2100/GC & ~26.50/SI) and were published.
Both Gold & Silver reached those price targets in the first half of April and then consolidated for a few weeks. They needed to allow ample time to pass before the bullish cycles – that were ushered in along with the early-March buy signals in Gold – would reach their apex.
Sure enough, on May 4 Gold & Silver attacked their highs and set their highest daily closes of the entire ~2-month rally… but did not close above their April highs despite spiking above them. With Silver spiking to a slightly higher high during the May 5 trading session, both Gold & Silver reversed lower and fulfilled their oft-cited ‘ideal’ scenario of peaking on May 3 – 5, ’23.
In that case, both factors were almost equally important. The upside target provided the ‘ideal’ time for the intermediate uptrends to peak and the early-March buy signals to reach fruition. It also reinforced ongoing analysis for metals to set multi-month highs at one of their two most important cycle peaks in 2023 (see INSIIDE Track for discussion on the other future cycle).
That peak was preceded by a peak in the XAU & HUI Indexes – almost exactly 1 year (360 degrees) from their April ’22 peaks – in mid-April ’23. Since that time, the XAU has been adhering to its own ‘ideal’ scenario for the period from mid-April… both indexes set multi-week lows in late-June/early-July and were forecast to undergo rebounds to ~130 – 133/XAU & 254 – 257/HUI in the near term.
That was expected to coincide with the ‘ideal’ scenario for precious metals – a quick, sharp rally in Gold & Silver from July 10 – 14 that should see Gold surge to [reserved for subscribers]…
To reiterate, this scenario – particularly the cyclic aspect of it… is when the greatest synergy of cycles, timing objectives, and Cycle Progressions converge… creating the ‘ideal’ time for a multi-month low. More specific targets – in price and time – should emerge in the coming weeks…
Gold & Silver have rebounded after Gold fulfilled a 28 – 29 day low (Mar 8) – high (Apr 5) – high (May 4) – high (June 1) – (low; June 29/30, ‘23) Cycle Progression… As described this past weekend, this rebound has a good chance of making it back up to ~2000.0/GCQ… where Gold has set a pivotal range-trading parameter for most of 2023…
Its initial rally, into early-Feb ’23, peaked near 2000.0/GCQ. In mid-March, after completing a sell-off and entering a new advance, Gold broke above that level. In late-April, Gold pulled back to 2000.0/GCQ – resistance turned into support – and then entered its final rally to ~2100.0/GCQ.
From there, it sold off and closed below 2000.0/GCQ on May 18. For the next two weeks, it repeatedly bounced to 2000.0/GCQ… only to be repelled each time. That ushered in the June ’23 decline to ~1900.0/ GCQ – reinforcing a ~6-month set of trading ranges with parameters near 1900, 2000 & 2100/GCQ.
By bottoming where it began the year (Jan 3, ’23 high was 1903/GCQ), Gold set a multi-week low and projected a rally back to ~2000.0/GCQ into July 14. That would take it back to the highs of late-May/early-June, the lows of late-April, and the initial highs of early-Feb ’23… as well as right to the flattening weekly 21 High MAC AND complete a 50% rebound in price…
The XAU & HUI are fulfilling projections for a quick surge to ~130 – 133/XAU & 254 – 257/HUI.”
Gold & Silver sold off, bounced, and sold off again (‘a-b-c’ correction) after fulfilling multi-month upside price targets AND cycles/timing indicators that peaked on May 3 – 5, ’23. They completed their second sell-offs in late-June ‘23 – bottoming in line with daily & weekly cycle lows and ushering in a pivotal time.
From a broader perspective, the early-May ’23 peaks powerfully corroborated the other primary cycle focus for 2023 – the time frame in/around late-Oct/early-Nov ’23. That remains a decisive cycle, with some surprising expectations for the months leading into it! [The period surrounding early-Aug ’23 could provide additional reinforcement.] All of this action, since late-2022, is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential with the Dollar Index already fulfilling multi-year upside targets and signaling that a major top is in the making!
The XAU & HUI are similar and fulfilled projections for a strong rally into, and a multi-month top in, early-May ’23. In mid-April and early-May ’23, they reached convincing upside targets and signaled 3 – 6 month peaks and the onset of a 1 – 2 month corrections. Intermediate lows have recently been set.
How Does Early-May Peak Corroborate Aug – Nov ’23 Cycles?
Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding? If so, When is a Breakout Likely??
How Are Interest Rates & Inflation Creating a Unique Opportunity?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure for expanded analysis that addresses some of those questions.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.