Gold & Silver Bullish into early-May ‘23; Early-March Buy Signals Concur.

03-31-23 – Gold & Silver have surged after Gold bottom in sync with intermediate support and its correction target (~1820/GCJ, triggering a multi-week buy signal on March 8) and Silver fulfilled multi-month cycles that bottomed in early-March ‘23.

To reiterate from last month, a low in early-March ‘23 fulfilled a ~6-month high (early-Mar ’22) – low (early-Sept ’22) – (low; early-March ’23) Cycle Progression and a precise 50% retracement in time (4 mos up into early-Jan ‘23, 2 mos down into early-Mar ‘23).  It also perpetuated a ~1-month/28 – 30 day high-high-high-(low; Mar 2 – 6, ‘23) Cycle Progression.

That reinforced the 1 – 3 month outlook for a new rally from early-March into early-May ’23.  A peak in early-May ’23 would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold.

Silver is poised to turn its weekly trend up (March 31 close), which would confirm a multi-month bottom while paradoxically setting the stage for an initial peak.  (An upward weekly trend reversal is a lagging indicator that signals a larger-magnitude advance while usually occurring within ~a week of an initial peak… followed by a reactive 1 – 3 week sell-off.)

This action further validates the 1 – 2 year trend, structure and outlook… linked to what was projected to be major lows set in the final third of 2022 – Silver in Sept ‘22 and Gold in Nov/Dec ‘22.  The importance of those cycle lows, and the corresponding wave structure potential they validate, was detailed in many previous issues, including the Oct ‘22 INSIIDE Track:

9-30-22 – “Silver has had a different structure – originating from its early-’21 peak. It has declined in a fairly clear 3-wave structure… In Elliott Wave terms, that is a classic 3-3-5 corrective (‘a-b-c’) wave…  this entire decline (Feb ‘21 – Sept ‘22) could be a larger-degree ‘B’ wave decline of a multi-year, upside ‘A-B-C’ correction, following Silver’s 2011 – 2020 decline.

In other words, if a 1 – 2 year bottom is set near current levels, Silver would likely embark on a new 1 – 2.5-year advance (to be honed later) and ultimately exceed its early-’21 high… but not its 2011 peak…

Gold’s monthly trend pattern and its wave structure (two successive declines of ~7 months each) are… reinforcing what Silver’s price action has already been showing… there is still a good chance for at least Gold to drop to new lows… the ~7-Year Cycle illustrated above.  That has consistently timed multi-year lows in Gold (Silver in 4Q ‘01) in 4Q of the respective years.  The latest phase projects a low in 4Q ‘22… ”

On an intra-year basis, Gold & Silver could stretch their intra-year peak into late-Oct/early-Nov ‘23, reinforced by the latest phase of a consistent ~9.5-month cycle that timed the March ‘22 peak and then the early-Jan ‘23 peak.

A high in early-Nov ‘23 would also perpetuate an over-arching ~19-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and complete a ~1-year/~360-degree advance in Gold.  That could/would be reinforced by an intervening peak in early-May ‘23, creating a corroborating ~6-month/~180-degree low (early-Nov ‘22) – high (early-May ‘23) – high (early-Nov ‘23) Cycle Progression.

The XAU & HUI are continuing to trace out a textbook wave structure, first surging into Jan ’23 and fulfilling ongoing projections for multi-month rallies to 137.29 – 139.84/XAU & 259.42 – 262.31/HUI.  They peaked at those target ranges and reversed lower.

They sold off into early-Mar ’23, the latest phase of a 21 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low.  That was corroborated by these indexes attacking their monthly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) in Feb ‘23 – fulfilling what was described in early-Jan:

1-05-23 – “The XAU & HUI have rallied since dropping into Sept ’22, fulfilling a ~5-month (21 – 23 week) high-high-high-low Cycle Progression… That set the stage for a multi-month low with the ongoing outlook for a surge to 130 – 137/XAU & 245 – 251/HUI… The next multi-month low could be seen in the first half of March ‘23, in line with the 23-week Cycle Progression…”

The first advance – into Jan ’23 and to 3 – 6 month upside targets – reversed the monthly trend to up, a lagging and confirming indicator that usually reverses at/near the culmination of an initial multi-month rally.  At the time, the XAU perpetuated a 9 – 10 month/41 – 45 week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and held the descending monthly 21 High MAC.

That usually triggers a 1 – 3 month reactive sell-off, which has taken place, with both indexes spiking down to the convergence of their last two monthly HLS levels (extreme downside targets).  A multi-month low was expected on Feb 24 – Mar 10, ‘23.  Since then, they have surged and turned their weekly trends up.  Similar to Silver, that should usher in a 1 – 3 week reactive pullback before a new advance.

Platinum set what is likely a multi-month bottom in late-Feb ’23, completing a ’2’ or ’B’ wave correction after its initial surge from cycle lows in early-Sept ’22 into cycle highs in early-Jan ’23.  The early-year high fulfilled an 18 – 19 week low-low-low-low-(high; Jan 3 – 13, ‘23) Cycle Progression that projects a future peak for  the second half of May ‘23.

After that peak, Platinum sold off into late-Feb – the same time other 90/180/360-degree cycles came into play – very similar to cycles in Silver.  That low fulfilled a ~6-month high-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a 50% retracement in time (18 wks up/9 wks down).

Platinum tested its monthly HLS in late-Feb ‘23 (extreme downside target for Feb ‘23) at ~905.0/PLJ, where a low was likely.  This was also near the levels of the Sept & Dec ’21 lows – creating the potential for an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern on a 1 – 2 year basis (with neckline resistance at ~1100.0/PL and a breakout target at ~1300/PL).”

Gold & Silver have steadily advanced since fulfilling the 1 – 2 year outlook for lows in Sept ’22 (SI) and Nov/Dec ’22 (GC).  At that time, they entered the ideal setup – based on inflationary factors (slowing), interest rates, and the Dollar (peaking) – for the onset of a very bullish 1 – 2 year period in precious metals.  Platinum is signaling something similar.  2023/24 holds the potential for some abrupt surprises (in and out of the markets) for precious metals, with multiple advances projected.

The second advance was expected to begin in early-March ‘23, after metals completed ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave pullbacks (following the initial advances), and to last into early-May ’23 (May 3 – 5) when the next intermediate high is most likely.  Corresponding signals projected strong rallies in March & April ’23… coinciding with the outlook for bottoming Bonds & Notes, Cryptos and other markets.

The XAU & HUI are similar and projected a multi-month low by/on March 6 – 10 – perpetuating an uncanny ~23-Week Cycle.  The monthly trend projects a strong rally to new intra-year highs to follow.  Gold triggered a convincing weekly buy signal on March 3, ’23 and then triggered a corroborating daily buy signal on the March 8 close… confirming the outlook for a new surge in March/April ’23.

How High Could Gold & Silver (&XAU) Reach in 2023?  Is a New MAJOR Bull Market in store??

 

Will the Outlook for Bonds (Bottom in ~March ’23) & Interest Rates Concur?

 

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.