Gold & Silver Plunge into Early-March; Fulfill Initial Downside Forecasts. Intra-Month Trend Indicator Projects Rebound (XAU Could Reach 79.82 in March).
Gold & Silver Plunge into Early-March; Fulfill Initial Downside Forecasts. Intra-Month Trend Indicator Projects Rebound (XAU Could Reach 79.82 in March).
03/09/19 Weekly Re-Lay:
Gold & Silver dropped right to convincing downside targets and are attempting to rally. The daily trends are the key to the outlook for the coming weeks…
Gold & Silver dropped right to their initial downside targets and support levels (1281.6/GCJ & 15.000/SIK) after peaking on Feb. 20, fulfilling a myriad of related cycles (55 – 59 week, 27 – 29 week, 13 – 14 week & 6 – 7 week), the largest of which have been in focus for over a year.
They plunged on Feb. 25 – March 4 – the same time their inversely-correlated daily 21 MARCs were surging and exerting a negative influence on the daily 21 MACs and on evolving price action. Both attacked those decisive support/target levels (1281.6/GCJ & 15.000/SIK) and rebounded.
Three important things took place this past week:
[See full March 9, 2019 Weekly Re-Lay for these three key factors.]…
Silver retested its weekly trend-neutral point (14.975/SIK) and reversed higher after also testing its flattening weekly 21 Low MAC… Silver could still see an additional spike low – potentially extending into early-April. The daily trends should provide an important clue.
Gold & Silver dropped sharply after peaking during the latest phase of their 6 – 7 week low-low-low-low-high-(high) AND 13 – 14 week low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions. That validated the daily 21 MAC action.
They completed the time when the daily 21 MARCs signaled an accelerated decline (Feb. 25 – March 4) and Gold never closed below that March 4 low. That also means Gold never turned its intra-month trend down (Silver did), so it remains in a stronger setup than Silver.
Both metals spiked to new intraday lows on March 7, fulfilling analysis for a low during the latest phase of the same 20 – 21 day high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that projected preceding lows for Jan. 24 and Feb. 13 – 14. Those March 7 lows should hold for at least a week (if not longer).
Both metals were expected to subsequently see a multi-day rebound – from March 7 into March 12 – and their daily trends could clarify what to expect in the second half of March. Once Monday’s action is complete, it would take a daily close above the high of the March 8 – 11 (two day) trading range to turn the daily trends up. If that fails to occur, it would project a drop back to the March 7 lows.
These daily trend patterns corroborate the potential for a short-term (3 – 5 day) high on March 12 – the earliest those daily trends could turn up.
The XAU remains in a weekly & intra-year uptrend, dropping sharply into March 7 while reaching Initial support and the minimum downside target at 72.22 – 72.85. It spiked down to 72.66 on March 7 and then reversed higher without ever turning its intra-month trend down.
That had the XAU testing its year-opening trading range (intra-year resistance turned into support) and its weekly trend neutral point – holding both and reversing back up.
That could/should spur a rebound into March 12 and potentially into mid-month. It would take a daily close above 76.18/XAU to turn the intra-month trend up. If that occurs, it would project a rally to monthly resistance – at 78.37 – 79.82/XAU. That would also create a test of its weekly LHR at 78.16.
The daily downtrend turned neutral on Friday, so the XAU is similar to Gold & Silver. Once Monday’s action is complete, it would take a daily close above the high of the March 8 – 11 (two day) trading range to turn the daily trend up. If that fails to occur, it would project a drop back to the March 7 low.”
Gold & Silver are powerfully confirming analysis for multi-month peaks to be set on Feb. 19 – 22 and a subsequent correction to spur declines into April. The Feb. 20 peaks fulfilled multi-month, multi-week & multi-day cycle highs AND attacked extreme upside price targets – creating highs that should hold for at least 2 – 3 months. They fulfilled initial downside expectations and could see some consolidation take hold now that 1 – 2 week downside targets have been reached.
What Could Spur XAU Rally to 79.82?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.