Gold & Silver Diverging; Gold Affirming Multi-Month Low as Silver Weakens.
11-23-24 – “The Dollar Index remains in bullish cycles, following its low on Sept 27/30 (that fulfilled a major, ~3.25-Year/38 – 41-month low-low cycle and a more precise ~40-month low (Jan ’18) – low (May ’21) – (low; Sept 2024) Cycle Progression) and the outlook for a contrasting 3 – 6 month peak in January 2025…
Gold & Silver entered this past week with a higher probability for a reversal back up. Silver was in the third week after testing and holding its weekly HLS… while Gold was in the second week of a similar setup. That indicator usually generates a 1 – 2 month low in the ensuing 2 – 3 weeks… so a low was due.
A low on Nov 11 – 18th was expected and would perpetuate a ~14-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. So far, that has been the case.
Multiple price targets and support levels converged at 29.71 – 29.86/SIZ, which is exactly where Silver bottomed. Gold bottomed slightly above extreme downside support while creating the largest decline since May – Oct ‘23, a sell-off that Gold just matched in magnitude (~260.0/GC declines in both cases) with its latest sell-off.
Gold has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times and would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 2541/GCZ. As long as that does not occur, Gold is poised to enter a new wave higher. (That indicator also increased the likelihood for a reversal higher this past week.)
If Gold & Silver bottom before the end of 2024 (ideally before the end of November), they would likely be completing a larger-magnitude wave ‘4’ (or ‘IV’) of the overall advance from the late-2022 low.
That would pave the way for a wave ‘5’/’V’ advance into (at least) Oct/Nov 2025. The similar-magnitude decline in Gold corroborates that wave potential.
There is, however, a ‘catch’. Silver is relatively weaker and could see another decline into early-December (potentially coinciding with a Gold pullback to a secondary low) if it fails to close above 31.62/SIZ in the coming days.
If so, that could trigger [reserved for subscribers]…
Gold & Silver fulfilled the outlook for reversals higher with Gold turning its daily trend back up while rallying above and closing above its daily 21 High MAC. In contrast, Silver has not turned its daily trend up and has only bounced to its daily 21 Low MAC. That combination could spur a reversal back down in the coming week.
The XAU & HUI dropped sharply after fulfilling upside projections in price and time with their October 21/22nd peaks – perpetuating an ~18-week low-low-low-low-(high; Oct 21 – 25, 2024) Cycle Progression and many other cycles.
Similar to Gold, the XAU has neutralized its weekly uptrend multiple times but would not turn that trend down until a weekly close below 142.35/XAU. Similar to Silver, the XAU has bounced to its declining daily 21 Low MAC and could reverse lower on November 25/26th.”
Gold, Silver & XAU sold off after fulfilling ongoing projections for a surge into late-October ’24. Both Gold & Silver fulfilled downside objectives and could be setting 1 – 2 month lows. Gold also just fulfilled a pair of downside wave objectives, without turning its weekly trend down, increasing the likelihood for a multi-month low. In contrast, Silver is showing that it could drop to lower lows in December ’24. The XAU portends a drop below 136.00/XAU – where multi-month support aligns – before the next advance becomes more likely.
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War and projected a multi-year bull market to follow…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
Late-2023 was projected to reaffirm this analysis when Middle East War Cycles were projected to reignite (in October 2023… exactly when war broke out)…
Middle East War Cycles Collide in Late-2023
Gold & Silver (& US Dollar) fulfilled the latest phases of their 2022 – 2027 outlooks with the Dollar bottoming in late-Sept and metals surging into late-Oct ’24… reinforcing analysis for a series of future Gold peaks projected for 2025 & 2026. The late-October high reinforces future Gold cycle highs in early-Feb, early-May & early-Nov ‘25. Gold could be setting a low now and preparing for a rally back to its high.
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